UPDATE SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a weak to moderate event.
CHANCE OF EL NINO?
|3 Month period||La Niña||Neutral||El Niño|
WHEN IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR EL NINO?
WHAT TYPE OF EL NINO?
THE ODDS OF A WEAK EL NINO?
The El Nino pattern will be the key to some big snow this winter and if we see a favorable storm track off the Pacific Ocean for snowfall to be above normal. We could also see a mild period in January and/or February with some spring like days for sure.
Other factors into our forecast are the usual NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The STJ or Sub Tropical Jet along with the Arctic Oscillation and PNA or Pacific North American Teleconnection.
Expect an above average snowy winter but temps near normal as we keep a close eye on the possible Modaki El Nino this winter. Temps will vary quite a bit this winter with a period of cold and mild across the state. It will start off dry and mild and end with cooler, wetter weather in later February and March.
Temps will be above normal most to start the winter except during those cloudy, rain/snow days. We expect a mild start in December and temps near normal for January and above normal for February. The totals below are for the Forestville-Waterbury-Bristol area.
|Snow Days||City||Avg. Snow||This Winter|
STATE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR CT
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