Bristol Waterbury Forestville Connecticut Winter Outlook 2014-2015 (Central CT Snow Forecast via El Nino)

Discussion started by robweather 3 years ago

UPDATE SEPTEMBER 26, 2014

Rob Guarino's Bio

(12 awards for Accuracy & Forecasting)

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a weak to moderate event.

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CHANCE OF EL NINO?

CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast Probabilities  September 03, 2014

3 Month periodLa NiñaNeutralEl Niño
ASO 2014 ~0% 58% 42%
SON 2014 ~0% 44% 56%
OND 2014 ~0% 36% 64%
NDJ 2014 ~0% 30% 70%
DJF 2014 ~0% 27% 73%
JFM 2015 ~0% 32% 68%
FMA 2015 1% 37% 62%
MAM 2015 2% 43% 55%
AMJ 2015 4% 45% 51%

 WHEN IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR EL NINO?

TINY 73 

 WHAT TYPE OF EL NINO?

TINY EL NINO GRAPH

THE ODDS OF A WEAK EL NINO?

TINY EL NINO WEAK ODDS

The El Nino pattern will be the key to some big snow this winter and if we see a favorable storm track off the Pacific Ocean for snowfall to be above normal. We could also see a mild period in January and/or February with some spring like days for sure. 

Other factors into our forecast are the usual NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The STJ or Sub Tropical Jet along with the Arctic Oscillation and PNA or Pacific North American Teleconnection.

Screen Shot 2014-04-03 at 5.08.15 PM

Our Winter Summary...

Expect an above average snowy winter but temps near normal as we keep a close eye on the possible Modaki El Nino this winter. Temps will vary quite a bit this winter with a period of cold and mild across the state. It will start off dry and mild and end with cooler, wetter weather in later February and March.

Temps will be above normal most to start the winter except during those cloudy, rain/snow days. We expect a mild start in December and temps near normal for January and above normal for February. The totals below are for the Forestville-Waterbury-Bristol area.

Snow Days City Avg. Snow This Winter
20.1 BRISTOL 40.5" 43.2"

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YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK

200 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, Extreme Winter Weather

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EL NINO ECONOMIC IMPACT ON YOU!

State breakdown on Gas Prices, Heating Bills, Groceries

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 STATE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR CT

Many smaller cities are in this outlook, Snow Days, Temps

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SKI AREA WINTER OUTLOOKS

 300 Ski areas for Snowfall, Temps by Month, El Nino Snow Forecast

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EL NINO WATCH UPDATE 2014-2015

Is this El Nino a Fake? The chances have dropped in August

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Connecticut Disaster Risk !

Check out the risk for your town and state

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