BLOG SONG "BACK IN THE SADDLE"
Ok so the NAM is in and as I kinda expected we need another run to get us into Wednesday afternoon and evening. We may even need til the Sunday night run to get the NAM in the range I want to see with this storm. So the NAM as of tonight is kinda of a miss but with not enough range to show us all of Wednesday so we'll call this a mulligan and try again tomorrow on this model.
The NAM does show a dip in the cold on the west side or Midwest as the moisture moves north. It needs a shortwave or vort max to get the two fused together. The map below shows the "X" where I think the next run will show the formation of the low or upper low.
MODEL QUICK LOOK AS OF 10:00pm
EURO MODEL 7PM LAST NIGHT
Rain to Snow 1-3" Temps 34 to 30 degrees
EURO MODEL TODAY 7AM
Rain to snow 2-4" 35 to 33 degrees
NEXT RUN AT 2:30 AM
GFS MODEL 7AM TODAY
Rain to Snow 3-4" 36 to 32 degrees
GFS MODEL 1PM TODAY
Brief Rain to Snow 3-5" 33 to 32 degrees
GFS MODEL 10PM TONIGHT
Wet Snow to Snow 2-4" 33-32 degrees
If you look the profile for PHL you see a start at 37 degrees but a drop to 33-32 in the snow zone from 1pm to 9pm Wednesday night. This means the roads will stay mainly wet not white but grassy areas and car tops could see a few inches as indicated. Snow falling during the day is tough to stick in November and we'll also have marginal temps. The GFS sped up the storm a little but basically kept the liquid almost the same. The last three runs are .35" to .43" to now .46". Temps are slightly warmer in the core of the storm (31.2 to 32.7) but colder faster after the snow starts. The GFS is also getting a bit more consistent.
NAM MODEL IS IN...BUT NOT IN RANGE
AGAIN TIL TOMORROW AT 9:30 am
CANADIAN MODEL...THE STORM IS OUT TO SEA