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NAM GFS EURO MODEL UPDATE (Rolling blog as the info comes in…cause that's how we roll)

Discussion started by robweather 2 years ago

Screen Shot 2014-11-22 at 10.03.21 PM

BLOG SONG "BACK IN THE SADDLE"

AEROSMITH

 

Ok so the NAM is in and as I kinda expected we need another run to get us into Wednesday afternoon and evening. We may even need til the Sunday night run to get the NAM in the range I want to see with this storm.  So the NAM as of tonight is kinda of a miss but with not enough range to show us all of Wednesday so we'll call this a mulligan and try again tomorrow on this model.

The NAM does show a dip in the cold on the west side or Midwest as the moisture moves north. It needs a shortwave or vort max to get the two fused together. The map below shows the "X" where I think the next run will show the formation of the low or upper low.

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______________________________________________

MODEL QUICK LOOK AS OF 10:00pm

EURO MODEL 7PM LAST NIGHT

Rain to Snow 1-3" Temps 34 to 30 degrees

EURO MODEL TODAY 7AM

Rain to snow 2-4" 35 to 33 degrees

NEXT RUN AT 2:30 AM

____________________________________________

GFS MODEL 7AM TODAY

Rain to Snow 3-4" 36 to 32 degrees

GFS MODEL 1PM TODAY

Brief Rain to Snow 3-5" 33 to 32 degrees

GFS MODEL 10PM TONIGHT

Wet Snow to Snow 2-4" 33-32 degrees

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If you look the profile for PHL you see a start at 37 degrees but a drop to 33-32 in the snow zone from 1pm to 9pm Wednesday night. This means the roads will stay mainly wet not white but grassy areas and car tops could see a few inches as indicated. Snow falling during the day is tough to stick in November and we'll also have marginal temps. The GFS sped up the storm a little but basically kept the liquid almost the same. The last three runs are .35" to .43" to now .46".  Temps are slightly warmer in the core of the storm (31.2 to 32.7) but colder faster after the snow starts. The GFS is also getting a bit more consistent.

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__________________________________________ 

NAM MODEL IS IN...BUT NOT IN RANGE

AGAIN TIL TOMORROW AT 9:30 am

__________________________________________

CANADIAN MODEL...THE STORM IS OUT TO SEA

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John
John
Hello Everyone,
I used to go by the name of HeatIsland718 but Ill keep it simple with just John. Now ocean sst are still warm for a snowstorm. The atlantic inflow when vortices mix the warm ocean air through the column will moderate the column. Now we are depending on a upper air vort max that right now trails the main system but will catch up to the system, and phase with the system off of Hatterass. The kink will allow for a deeper penetration of air into the storm but the progressive nature with the storm will pass us by before we receive any significant snowfall. Model trends show a reinforcing layer of warmer ssts at the 500mb mid tropospheric column passing through Phila, NYC it will be HRTFRD, BOS and west. but BOS will be in the 540 line for most of the day accums 6". NYC you will see the 540 line in the evening but too late I see a dusting to 1" for us. Phila due to your western component you have a chance but the PBL kills it with the dry slot behind accums around 3" max.
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
sorry let me re introduce my self i was here last year off and on using the name john from stowe, pa . on the berks county boarder some of you may remember ... when they redid the site i lost my username and account now i'm back and hope for a repeat if not snowier year then last !!!!!!!!!!!!
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/…

mean almost 10 inchs for pottstown and nice cluster for a foot..

wxcaster.com/…

nam shows good hit north and west and philly on the border for heavy snow and i think even center city will get about 4 but only on the grass
2 years ago
Blue Blaster
Blue Blaster
The Ryan Howard analogy - HA! Classic.
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
I know....its all good!
2 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Haha- just a little jab! Appreciate the insight! I'm in Reading just sympathizing w/ center city Philly! I'll post pictures tomorrow for those left out!
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
You guys and gals are hoping right now for something much different than what this truly is. Nothing is pointing towards a minor to big snow event. Snow for the mountains yes. Listen, I want snow as much if not more than anyone. But if this wasn't the biggest travel day of the year, I don't think we'd be harping on this event that much. We would certainly be talking about it and forecasting but not thinking of a big storm or last minute change. Just wayyyyyyyyyyy too many things are in the negative column right now and very very few in the positive column. Don't ever compare me to Charles or Rebel.....how dare you insult the OAK. lol
2 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Oak starting to sound like Rebel & Charles the buzzkill!
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I totally disagree oakland2323. I haven't seen any signs to support that, except I agree that it will not be a major snow maker for the philly area. I still feel we can get 2-4 in northern camden co, philly and such areas. My outside temp gauge is reading a mere 52 right now, below what we were supposed to reach. I can easily see this being a surprise win for us. 3-6 isn't out of the question, but a coating-2 is way to conservative.
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
It is game over for the I-95 corridor. Just the mountains will see some good snows. Now, I am currently at my office in King of Prussia and out here and westward towards Limerick and Pottstown and Collegeville......if you take the center of those 3 areas and draw a 45 degree angle line from SW to NE through it, I think 3 to 5 inches is possible but we are talking grassy surfaces and roofs and cars only. streets don't stand a chance with the temps, time of day and just no real cold air rushing in fast enough.

Like I said yesterday, typical storm for this time of year.....barring the last 4 years of course.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
I agree with FreezeMizer that we should see the R/S line setup right around the 95 corridor. Looking at the WV map, the moisture in the storm is impressive and according the NAM it'll continue to strengthen as it pushes up the coast. We just gotta Fedex Express that polar air from the north down here. That would put me at ease. But until then, we watch this bad boy gain strength/moisture and continue to monitor temperatures. Let it snow!
Edit: @Oak, lets hope I'm not headed towards a Ryan Howard otherwise I might pull something precious with all this hope!
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
I love it when a plan comes together!
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
This is what makes Winter awesome! Watching all the knowledge and experience from everyone trying to come up with a forecast or nowcast and having all this fun when it's only November. Can't wait to see what the ride will be like ahead! I'm a low buyer into this system, not that the potential and factors aren't there, but maybe just too much too overcome for this time of year! I'm am also on board with.... I hope I am very wrong! Get the snow train started!
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Yo Bros and gals. I95 is the line. To the E - rain, right around it - slop (1-3 on grass/decks), to the N&W rain to decent snow. Keep it simple for this storm. Probably will move quicker than modeled. That's a rocking Jet streak it will ride.

Wild - wild - wild winter ahead.....
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
@Brett, understandable, but we have to realize we need snow for such things such as evaporational cooling and to cool the ground as a whole. This will, in it self, take multiple hours. Were all here wishing for snow. Hopefully by noon time most of the area will start to see that gradual change from rain to snow, so that it may start accumulating! Agreed, let it snow
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Brett I love it. You are reaching on this like Ryan Howard trying to leg out an infield single....AINT HAPPENING. Love the enthusiasm early on though.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Andrew, not all hope is lost. The ingredients ARE there. Other than this mornings 12z NAM run, we won't gain anymore from models than we already know. The run this morning affirmed that the strength is high. The low of 997mb is nothing to sneeze at. I agree that timing can be an issue, but there is still a chance that the increasing strength of the storm is able to overcome the fact that we don't have cold air currently in place. It time to start looking at nowcasts. We need to be watching for temperature decline rates across the areas in question. This storm has a lot of moisture and a lot of potential. Mother nature just needs to cooperate. Doesn't mean its likely, but it also doesn't mean its impossible. Let it Snow!
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
To be quite frank, after reviewing the models and temps at all levels of the atmosphere, its hard to believe some of the snow totals out there. In my mind, most of the area will start with rain (including N&W) and this may continue for a prolonged period based on where you're located. That already a negative, and pretty much destroys any hope for 10+. Secondly, the storm is moving quicker and quicker up the coast, much quicker than the cold air can be ushered in from the north and west. This is another reason why anyone wont see more than 8. Finally, with the storm seeing virtually no darkness, it will be hard to get much accumulation on anything but grassy surfaces S&E of the Lehigh Valley. Im a snow lover too, but we have to be realistic that all the ingredients are not there to form the perfect storm. 5-8 for pocono's, 3-6 for LV and west to harrisburg, NW burbs of philly 1-4, philly coating to and inch of slush.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Hahaha @Oak, I love it! Like I said earlier, this is just an "early icing on the cake" system. I hope this early activity is a sign for good things to come this season. Also glad to hear you have snow on the ground for the 25th, might have to start buying that "if it snows, its free!" jewelry this year! @ Nick, I hope you're right about the models underdoing the cold air. When rob mentioned those snowfall rates, what part of the storm was he referencing? Having those types of rates can be an huge help in the onset of the storm to get the ground cold enough early enough. The amount of moisture in this storm looks great. My only hope is the temperature allow for prime dumping of this moisture as snow in the onset to allow for continued snow throughout the system. Let it snow!
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Here's what I am saying so far. Will change throughout the day if need be.
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
So what're we seeing now? I think that TWC and the NWS are jumping the gun by lowering their accumulations. Plus, the NWS needs to put Camden, Gloucester, and Burlington counties under a watch, or at least an adv.I'll make a map in a few for my totals.
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
I hear ya Brett, but when the storm itself starts to put snow in other areas than where you live, you tend to look for other positive signs like the dreaded "back end snow". That phrase is almost as a sure thing as my Oakland Raiders winning the Super Bowl this year.

It's a volatile time of year with a wide range of temps and also precip.....its just going to be your typical mountains winter storm and I-95 rain event. Its all good..we are just beginning the season. But to have a nice coastal early as well as a cold November....these are good TRENDS to have faith in as they will all come together in December. Be prepared for a WHITE CHRISTMAS for everyone.....snow will be on the ground December 25th.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
New Rayno video is out. Check out his twitter @Accurayno for the video. @OakTrain, I should've listened to you man. But i'm not done just yet . I understand that we're looking at a complex situation in which many pieces need to come together at the exact right time in order for this storm to dump. We need the storm to remain strong enough to pull the cold air in as quickly as possible from the north so that the onset brings snow in heavy amounts. The onset is the biggest concern, because if we end up with lots of rain upfront, the totals off the back will be nonexistent. Rayno makes a note of the fact that the storms strength is "Stretched" rather than condensed and centered and that this could have a negative effect on backend snow amounts, which means we need all the more onset snow. In my zipcode (18020), we sit at 49 degrees. Time to start pushing those temps down! Let it snow!
2 years ago
Blue Blaster
Blue Blaster
Hard to believe that we have had more snow here in the Memphis area than the Philly area this fall. Not that we've had much snow or anything, but it's weird. Hope there is a nice surprise tomorrow.
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Yo Brett!! See, what did I tell you yesterday morning.....don't put a lot of heart into this storm, its going to be a typical storm for our area rather than what we have seen the last 4 years....rain for us all and snow in the north and west to the mountains.....I-95 corridor a non-event, except that its on a big travel day.
2 years ago
Dave-Magz
Dave-Magz
I'll just be happy if it snows at this point
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Armando, which model do you think has the more realistic solution at this point? Any? Great stuff! Legs
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Armando, thank you for the insight. That is one serious low at 997. Did the NAM have the storm passing as fast as the Euro? Let's hope that the storm maintains enough strength that it can make use of the polar disturbance, should we not get a slight shift to the east in the track (Which seems a bit unlikely at this point). Hoping the decrease in snow totals are wrong. Let it snow!
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
A bit concerning to open up TWC this morning to see the high temp tomorrow range from high 30's and low 40's. TWC has changed their map to one that reflects the one rob originally put out. My question is why? Did the early morning euro show that the NAM was wrong in the strength of the storm? Did the Jet Stream not push far enough east to allow for that cold air to move in from the north? I'm just curious as to why the confidence across outlets seems to be gone as of this morning.
2 years ago
robweather
robweather
I have been rather consistent with lower numbers for a reason. Temps going in….wet bulb temps at the start of the storm. It starts as rain for almost everyone. I see others have changed the forecast many many times, mine has been pretty much the same. Regardless of the outcome respect all forecasts whether you are a pro or just a hobbyist. This is why we love weather…the unknown before and during the storm. The banding features later tomorrow and maybe early evening will be the "REAL WILDCARD" with some pops of snow esp N & W of I-95.
2 years ago
drghecht
drghecht
@Nick: Sun angle right now is about the same as January.
Sun angle is at its lowest around Dec 21/22 (winter solstice), and so a sun angle in (for example) Nov 21/22 would be the same as for Jan 21/22. We're talking about Nov 26 for this storm, so the sun angle is less than a month away from its lowest point. There may be issues with this storm (the recent 70° weather, warm ground, etc -- all of which you correctly point out), but sun angle isn't one of them.
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
I guess we couldn't ask for a better way to get us in the Winter mode...great warm-up for an interesting winter season. Great job thus far everyone!!
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Armando, no worries about the terminology, I love the opportunity to learn something new! Sounds good on the NAM and Rgem. Excited to move this operation into nowcast mode. Let it snow!
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Armando, Still looking up half of the terminology you just used, but i caught the jist and am glad to hear that the NW of the 95 corridor has a clear shot. Do you think the track will hold? or do you think there is a chance the GFS trends west at all?
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
I guess the GFS had to settle down eventually. It has been all over the place the last few days, so I'm still not sure i'm onboard with it yet.. But if we take the Polar disturbance intensity of the NAM, continue with the intensity of the storm suggested by the Euro, and maintain a consistent track (somehwere between the euro and GFS), we'll have a hell of a system. Here's hoping. Let it Snow!
Edit: Decided I'd tune into TWC for their :50 winter weather outlook, and was instead greeted by a program dealing with the impact of "space rock" on the Earth. Have they forgotten we have system on the way?
2 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Wonder if Rob will make another post/update blog with the fresh data. Plus this one is about to top 200 comments.
2 years ago
ChristianLehighValley
ChristianLehighValley
Wow! 00z NAM at hour 39.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Joe, love the insight! The thunderstorm activity is a good sign, keep the strength up and the temps down! I have to start monitoring how often I use the word "excited" in each post, but I am still excited to see how the GFS trends tonight as far the the temp and track. Let it Snow!
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
@Brett you're making very good observations. The cooling trend is certainly a factor in the increased snow totals were seeing from multiple outlets (even steve D!!!). Lets continue to monitor these runs of the models to see if the track and the cold stays consistent. Maybe Philly will be getting in on the action after all!
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Also found this facebook weather page .Like what he's saying. What do you think? www.facebook.com/pages/Mid-Atlantic-coast-weather-system-board/…
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Joe, low confidence? You mean snow confidence ! I'm hoping the cooling in the last models will continue into tonight's runs. Getting excited for nowcast mode. Feels like Christmas might come early! Let it snow!
2 years ago
jsm5050
jsm5050
yeah that new TWC map is wild. Such a sharp gradent. 8-12 in my zipcode in lower montco. but 1-3 in philly
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
I think a lot of outlets are starting to bite on the colder model shown by the afternoon Euro run today. It continued to highlight the strength of the storm and its ability to make use of the strong polar disturbance around the GL region. With that taken into consideration, those numbers don't seem as outlandish. As was mentioned earlier by Nick, Steve's forecast for the storm changed greatly with this new information, so its not too shocking that the TV mets caught on and made some alterations as well. We'll have to see what tonight's model runs bring. Gotta get some work done before then, will be back later. As always, Let it snow!
Edit for Jon: Numbers on the "key" are grainy but it says either 8-12 or 9-12. With a region up in Maine said to receive 15-20. And yes, that 8(9)-12 figure does include Philly subs.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Jon, the map had a jackpot range that ran straight up the I-95 (Philly, NYC, Boston). Just didn't seem to jive with anything we've seen so far and there haven't been any recent model releases that suggest that large of a change in track.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@HP4, what region is that range for? can you link me to the map you're looking at? and @Weatherman71, that map looks a little odd to me. The jackpot zones seem a bit too close to the coast. Maybe move them inland (west) a little further.
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
weatherman71, that is strange to say the least! I'd sure love it, but highly doubt that it would occur.
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
It's been very hard to forecast this. On my high schools weather club page (www.facebook.com/pages/3HS-Weather-Club/…) we've been writing a lot and stayed with 3-5. However, I've lowered it to 1-4 for the Haddon Heights, NJ area. Take a look at our page and tell me what you think!
2 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
Here's a strange map, I'm not sure what model they used, but I love the map, being here in South Jersey and all.
news.weathernationtv.com/wp-content/uploads/…
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Hey Armando, I'm completely in agreement with Steve's findings as well. Like you mentioned, still a lot left unanswered. Looking forward to the GFS run tonight. Let it snow!
2 years ago
robweather
robweather
Just remember when people made the seasonal forecasts it's measured at the PHL Airport (heat island) I have 24.0" since May and I'm not changing a thing.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Seeing some increased totals in the NWS maps. Additionally, after viewing this afternoons Euro run, Steve DiMartino has begun to rework his forecast. He noted the projected ability of the storm to pull down the polar air from the Great Lakes region. This could have a significant impact on his snow projections and may further validate the maps currently supplied by outlets such as NWS and AccuWeather. Looking forward to the GFS run tonight and how it reacts to the Euro slight shift to the east.
2 years ago
SgtSnow
SgtSnow
Hello all. Waiting for the white stuff
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
Winter Storm Watches up for Philly and suburbs
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Don't believe her guys....Kristina was talking bad about you!!! lol jk.

You better not mute me Kristina!!
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
couldn't agree more KSiegel, took a few minutes myself to get situated on what was what
2 years ago
Ksiegel35
Ksiegel35
The newe site is nice but maybe on the main page the latest blogs can be based on most recently updated/commented would make it a little easier to navigate!
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Brandon----if I could I swear we would get that 7 foot storm every Monday.

Brett---I am on your side and hope I am 100% dead wrong.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
I'm afraid to comment now that Oak has spoken! However, Euro 12z just rolled out and the only change in track seemed to be a very slight shift to the east, which isn't awful seeing as the Euro was setting up pretty far west before that. It also seems to be the slower of the models (as compared to GFS) in terms of having the precipitation stick around a little longer. Still concerned about the fact that the cold air we need from the north is not already in place, and rather we are relying on the storm to draw it in as it arrives. Should that occur as we hope, there might be truth in these snow maps. Here's hoping! Let it snow!!
2 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
I get out of school at 10:45 everyday and I much rather be walking in snow than rain...MAKE IT HAPPEN OAK! Lol.
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Oh and I wrote my winter forecast on here back in the beginning of October.....not in the middle of November like those TV peeps. Such procrastinators. .....I am usually the one procrastinating so if I am first, there are some serious problems going on lol.
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
In Oak we Trust!! Thanks Oak! ~Legs
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
My forecast on here was 31-35 inches in Philly and surrounding. Cold first half then a very early start to Spring.

HP4.....they are all throwing out different totals and being vague with saying it could go out to sea or come closer to the coast.....just the normal stuff already that we typically hear from them, which they have to say because of the "higher ups". Politics man. But on this site.....straight shooting. This puppy in a minor event for most.
2 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Good to hear from you Oak. Been talk about something mid-december.
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Ha....no problem Brett. I hope you are correct but this is not the storm to throw all in on. VERY warm ocean temps, no blocking, starting in the very warm 80 degree temp GOM.....going to be very tough for this baby to produce. I give at best right now a 10-15% chance of it happening and even then I think I am on the high side.

And concerning the TV Outlets and their current predictions, they WANT to see this happen so they can get started on validating their Winter Prediction Forecasts. See.....these TV peeps are already sweating their winter forecasts...lol. They make me laugh.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
I see where you're coming from Oak. But something just doesn't sit right with me when it comes to dismissing this storm. Seeing outlets that I usually viewed as more "conservative" (for lack of a better term) with snow totals such as AccuWeather project consistently larger totals keeps my hope alive. No hard feelings if Mother Nature doesn't produce this time around. Although, its the anticipation and the hunt that keep me in this and its been very exciting to track this thus far. Can't stop now! Let it snow!
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
I would not be putting a lot of hope in this storm.....just too many negatives for this event. NO worries though....its only November 24th. December and January are going to be one hell of a ride.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Good to see you in the blog Oak. I really wish I could be on the Oak Train for this system, but I'm too optimistic to give up on it yet. I'm pulling for a playout that resembles the Euro model strength and temps, hoping that it may produce the totals we want. Either way, it should be interesting to watch it all unfold and any snow we do get is early icing on the cake of what should be a fun upcoming season.
2 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Ok so we have a system on its way. Though I have reserved putting a forecast out since I feel its just going to be too far off the coast. I hope I'm wrong. I see this as more of a rain event with mixing at the end for the I-95 corridor and all snow north and west. If it was closer, it would draw down that cold air faster with higher precip amounts. Looks like a typical event for the I-95 corridor. With that being said, I see snow totals as very low if any at all for the I-95 corridor. If this storm decides to come west about 75-100 miles, then its game on and a lot of people get crushed. However, sorry.....not going to happen. no blocking at all and its just not the right time of year for this baby to cry its white stuff all over us.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Chris, as far as totals based off the Euro model go, I would give a look to Bernie Rayno's video from this morning. He is leaning on the Euro model with the hope that it pushes just a bit further east (But not as far as GFS). I'll add the link again in this post. And be on the lookout, he is adding another video at 12:00. Hopefully this will help you paint a better picture of your hometown potential as per the Euro model. www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-from-virginia-to-maine/…
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
Brett/HP4comp, with what you're saying.. seeing the trend go west, meeting the Euro.. with that said, what's our Lower Bucks area looking at with the Euro in mind? Just a curious snow lover
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Seems like most models are trending to meet the Euro with the exception of a few. We'll see what the afternoon runs bring. Let it snow!
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
That's a good point @HP4. I would still like to see some more agreement in the Euro and GFS models regarding track, which we will hopefully get in a few hours. Here is a comparison that overlays the Euro (red) with the GFS (green). You can see that the euro is too far west and the GFS is too far east. Ideally, the Euro model moves east just a little, but not as far east as the GFS. Any additional thoughts?
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
While I like the Euro track, the timing is still definitely a concern. The earlier in the day, the less chance we have of the lower temperatures we need. Although it appears to be moving slower in the Euro, we still have to remember that the north won't be setting a pick for us this time in the form of a blocking high. In short, I would feel more secure in higher totals should the storm arrive later in the day.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Andrew, I like the update and his track. Seems consistent with his last update from yesterday. However, I think the reason we are seeing such varying snow totals across networks/meteorologists is due to the fact that the models still have yet to really hash out when the storm will arrive and agree on a temperature for that time. I think temperature and time are the largest wildcards here. Time will tell. Let it snow!
2 years ago
robweather
robweather
Brett. They could slide a bit east we still have plenty of time. I think the combo of the no blocking and heaviest precip in the warmest temps does bring snow just not a blockbuster storm. a few inches on grassy areas simply due to it being a daytime storm
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
The latest Bernie Rayno update. I like this track. He is picking the euro with a very slightly more easterly track. likes 3-6 in philly suburbs and 6-12 from east of state college to allentown.

www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-from-virginia-to-maine/…
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Rob, you mentioned that the NAM seemed to have a better handle on the track due partially to the fact that it recognized there was no blocking high. Do you think today we might see the 12z GFS and Euro models start to agree with the NAM track/ cooling patterns?
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
Morning all, I wouldn't get too hung up on snow totals yet. Robs newest blog is very good at laying out all the wild cards that could bring higher snow totals to our area. A slight drop in temp, slightly farther east track, snow rates per hour ect... Waiting for new model runs this am and hoping for the cold trend to continue for the 95 N&W
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@HP4, I'm waiting for the moderation of the NAM model. Its been patterning to push majorly west, then moderate back to the east. Some of those adjusted snow totals are bound to reflect the shift to the west. Lets see what the 12z runs bring this morning in terms of moderating the track slightly eastward. However, it was nice last night to see the GFS get cooler with the 00z run last night similar to the NAM. Lets see if this morning runs will begin to agree on a track, hopefully one that sets up just a bit further east. Let it snow!
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Armando, keep us posted on the 12z. Looks like everyone is playing tennis with this system...lol Thanks ~ Legs
2 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Nick, Thank you very much! Much better than what I've been attempting to use. As always, Let it snow!
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
The NAM seems to be coming into play with the euro and GFS (more west since yesterday) and its good to see it trending cooler, even if only a little. Remember we are still 72 hours out and the models will continue to "flip flop" for the next 48 or so. Expecting the GFS to pick up on the cold
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Considering that the early NAM runs looked like the CMC in that it had the system almost completely out at sea, I'm glad to see it closer our region in this latest run. Additionally, the cooler temperatures can only mean a better chance of snow for the early hours of the system. Although its not the "ideal" model, I believe its headed in the right direction, and I'm hoping to see some more model agreement (especially with the cooling) as the GFS rolls out later tonight. Let it snow!
2 years ago
robweather
robweather
I like the NAM the actual track of the low gives the area a better shot of all snow
2 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
NAM looks good for Jersey, PA, not so much.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Jon, doesn't look like its done rolling out yet. Should hopefully be done around 10:00.
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
00z NAM needs colder temps aloft and at the surface to support snow. Time will tell in about 30 minutes. Hang tight
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Sorry for the mixup before Jon. Here is the new EPAWA map. Looks good! I like that this map shows the trends moving in a more east to west flow (which seems to jive better with the models we've been seeing) vs a more north to south trend seen in Steve's map released earlier. Thoughts? epawaweather.com/weather-alert-maps/
2 years ago
MacroburstMoses
MacroburstMoses
If tonight's runs look good then its definitely time to get serious.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Hey nick, novice question here, but what model runs next and at what time? I'm curious as to whether Andrew may have a case for the strength of the storm having the ability to outweigh the non-presence of the blocking as well as the temperature changes as the storm arrives.
2 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
The way I see things is that there is a fear of a trough that would be insufficient to support snow along the I95. Whether there is enough cold air on the onset will quickly change as the STRENGTHENING storm pulls in cold air aloft. That and evaporational cooling should support mainly snow N and W of the 95.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
I do as well. He seemed to touch heavily on the lack of a blocking effect over the Canadian maritime are and cited that as a factor that can affect the temperature during storm fall ( less blocking, higher temp flow in from Atlantic, more rain less snow). I'm hoping your post about the possibility of evaporation cooling comes to fruition. Let it snow!
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@nick, jon just posted it, it's at the very bottom of the article by Steve. You have to click on each shaded reigon to see the respective projection. Disclaimer: this is not a shot at Steve or his work, I love his work. Just a snow hopeful here.
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Is it me or does the EPAWA map seem a bit off? I guess I was expecting larger anounts in the white/gray shaded band in the middle based on the Rayno predictions earlier this morning which painted that reigon as a jackpot zone. Anyone else feel similarly?
2 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Jon I agree, can't have the public thinking less of a potential storm. And Nick, I see where you're coming from, thank you for the information. I'm hoping we can push those temps down a little earlier in the day Wednesday and/or have the storm hold off just a bit longer to sundown. Either way, I'm very excited to see this play out! As always, let it snow!
2 years ago

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