MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Snow Race has Begun!!!

Discussion started by WildWeather 3 years ago

Good Evening All,

 

It's about that time to put away the models and see what is currently going on.

 

 

Just a quick on the fly update. Just some observations. If you looked to the North and West at sunset clearly you could see the skies trying to clear. This is the colder drier press coming in from the northwest that my maps from last night was showing. Over the next 4-8 hours is critical to how the cold and dry air press down from the north and west.

 

 

Currently here in Media we sit at 44 degrees with a dewpoint of 32 this is oh oh so close tomorrow to being a big deal when it comes to snowfall.

 

Look for temps to gradually fall further especially north and west for a time where skies are clearing.

 

Keep an eye on your humidity and dew point levels because this will be a key ingredient in determining when the rain changes to sleet then to snow and ultimately how much snow your neighborhood is going to receive.

 

FYI if you wake up in the morning say at 6 am and it is already snowing prepare for a long day if you do not like snow exercise caution on the roads.

 

FYI if you wake up and you see sleet snow is not far behind so heed caution on the roads.

 

FYI you wake up it is raining at 35 degrees and your dewpoint has fallen to 32 it is just a matter of time

before sleet and snow mix and then change over.

 

As I said last night "The Snow Race is On"!!

 

Final Snow Map:

 

The "X" factor that can make this more is that the cold air gets here quicker however I am not ready to cross the bridge right now.  I will wait when the rain snow line is crashing down on I-95 tomorrow LOL

 

 

synoptic Map

Snowstorm

 

Final Snow Map could waver back and forth 10-20 miles either way.

Maps For Weather

Thanks for Reading

WildWeather

Kevin Reilly

Liveweatherblogs.com

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WildWeather
WildWeather
Hahah Joe really anything before Christmas around here either side of the Pa Turnpike is Bonus
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
Wow All Thank you for 227 replies that is amazing!!! What a interesting and erratic storm that we just tracked get ready for more it's only Nov. 26th.
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I see your point martin. I expect 1-2 if that.
3 years ago
martin
martin
There isn't much left to this storm. It's really going to wrap up in the next few hours with little to no snow in south jersey and philly area
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Looking for some wraparound but don't think it's gonna happen
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Are we gonna get any kind of neg tilt now or is this it? Looks like the back end is in DC
3 years ago
ChristianLehighValley
ChristianLehighValley
Brett, You live on the opposite side from me. If i am not mistaken, Nancy run is right by Freedom HS? I just measured again in a open grassy area and got 3.5" so you must have gotten a lot more then me. Snow is starting to pick up in intensity though. Brett_Broczkowski
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Still snowing good here. Smaller flakes just about 6 inches
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Hmm, I do. I'm not far from there. Across from Nancy run. I have 5-5.5 on the ground. Numbers are small and tough to read but here's a pic. Scratch that. Don't think the pic is loading from my phone. I'll add it later
3 years ago
ChristianLehighValley
ChristianLehighValley
West side. Right by Giant, Marshalls, and Staples if you know where i am talking about. Brett_Broczkowski
3 years ago
martin
martin
Where are the band's going ? Will they come around south jersey?
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Christian, where are you? I have well over 4-5 inches in bethlehem. Nick and armando, do you see bethlehem getting any of those intense bands?
3 years ago
ChristianLehighValley
ChristianLehighValley
Disappointed to say the least. Only 2.8'' of snow as of now here in Bethlehem, PA. Temp is 35 too.
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
this is really a elivation storm! in my area i'm at 265 FT got 2 inchs. friend of mine got 5 inchs 2miles away he's at 500 ft. saw a report on face book of 6.5 inches about 10 miles away as the crow flys at 1000 ft elivation. now hoping round 2 hits my area hard , with the sun going down will give it a better chance to pile up..
armando or nick . do you think the heavy bands will hit pottstown area or set up farther east ?
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
What are temps supposed to be tonight?
3 years ago
martin
martin
My call is 2-4 inches in the city and surrounding areas on NJ. Because bands I think will come through here. And Mount Royal NJ I can see maybe 2-3 inches. Anyone else think this?
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Jonathan123, I think the worst is possibly still going to come, with snow. And yes SE PA is included.
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Lowering my totals from 3-5 to 1-3.
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Just a break in the action guys, no worries. Thump #2 is on the way
3 years ago
martin
martin
Hello my name is Tim. I was on this site last winter with a different account but I am back. I live in Mount Royal NJ and am hoping for some snow
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Looks like the storm is pulling out. Tell me I'm wrong please. Are we gonna get a nice thump still or is light snow from here on out?
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Heavy big flakes in Bethlehem
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Just east of Harrisburg they are getting slammed with a band then east of that another one moving straight at me. Gonna get hammered here real soon
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
ah okay hp4
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Working on 5 inches
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
@Atrain. It's called Narvon border of Lancaster and Chester county
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
hp4, where are you
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Snowing very heavily right now
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
@Armando ok good I'm waiting to see some big snows. Have about 4" so far. I'm gonna go measure tho
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Arman, snow here too at 08035. Certainly am happy, I see 3-5 very possible
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Armando is that snow gonna be for the north and west of philly?
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Armando, I had completely forgotten what I was worried about but I appreciate the insight! Too happy with the snow right now to be worried!
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Wow it is really small sorry about that. I'll make it larger soon.
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
My new snow map. Is anyone listening to my comments haha, I have been writing a lot, but hey. the storm is not depressing me at all.
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Same here @joe
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
See the stripe going right thru Harrisburg. Wow they are getting pounded with that.
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
@Joe yea Evan Myers did a video. I don't believe those guys one bit. It has let up a lil in my area.
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Totally going with 3-5 for I-95 corridor. Already seeing coating and close to and inch of ice/snow here in 08035. It is 33.6 according to my ambientweather home weather station.
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
alright fellas, talk to ya on the next storm. all hope is lost for me, enjoy it to who is getting it! Have a good holiday
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Accuweather says from Allentown on south it's gonna be over by 5pm
3 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
Anyone know some timing info on this storm? What time is it expected to taper off? how far through are we?
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
everyone but lower bucks county in on the fun, lol guess i'll just take a long drive after work to see the snow. i've just about given up hope i'll see any real snow this storm.
3 years ago
weather_andrew
weather_andrew
Boy was I wrong about this storm! I predicted 3-6 in the LV and were ALREADY sitting at about 4 inches. Crazy. Long way to go as well... just waiting and watching at this point. The cooling was and continues to be incredible....
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Looks like the hole that was down in North Carolina is filling in. Is that the storm coming together?
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Nick how's banding look? Still got a ways to go with the heavy snow?
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Just did my first pass on the driveway...this crap is HEAVY! And as for Oak, I respect him so much. He stuck by his guns the whole time, and until we saw a change to snow in Bethlehem I thought he was right. In all honesty, he had just as much a chance of any of us for being right. There were so many pieces to this storm that needed to phase together perfectly in order for this to work. Me being a snow hopeful, I sided with that slim chance that everything would work out. And when I voiced my pro-snow opinion for this storm, he had nothing but positive reinforcement and hope that he was wrong in that we would get only rain. He is a snow lover just like the rest of us. Nothing but respect for Oak, he is the man. I know I'll definitely be riding the OakTrain plenty of times this winter!
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
The great thing about Oak is that he will never back off of his forecasts and will be the most delighted when he is wrong and we get more snow!
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
I'm gonna go build a snowman
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Did Oak take the train out lol. Haven't heard from him
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Thunder snow in west chester
3 years ago
Smith
Smith
snowing nicely in DELCO, upper darby, and accumulating now....that THundersnow was craaazy!
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
Thunder in Souderton
3 years ago
mellowdog
mellowdog
We just had some big time thundersnow in Gwynedd/North Wales, PA
3 years ago
Howboutthatsnow
Howboutthatsnow
Just heard thunder!!!!! Thundersnow
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
Brett_Broczkowski, I realllllllllllly hope you're right. i'm pretty jealous of all the surrounding areas
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Ahh I gotcha. Well looking at the WeatherTap radar now, the "Crashing" of the RS line we had seen earlier has slowed a bit. However, it does still look like its pressing further SE. I feel a push within the next 30mins-hour for you for full on snow. Maybe even less. I'm not sure the line will push too much further SE but I think you'll end up in the snow band.
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
Brett, hahaha no problem more so just kidding around.. I'm at work (sucks) near Bristol/Tullytown PA (5 min from Trenton bridge), it's 32 degrees.. but it's starting to mix.. just making me nervous everywhere i look i see people getting snow, yet where I'm near no one is saying crap (except for Nick, he's luckily 20 miles from me seeing snow haha)
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Anyone see Baltimore? Getting pounded all moving up this way
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Haha sorry chris, just not too much to be commented on. How are things your way? Where are you located at again?
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
everyones gone silent?! Hope it doesn't mean you're getting pounded with snow and have no internet, i'll be jealous! lol
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
cars and grass covered roads and side walks slushy but just switched back to plain rain in stowe pa, as soon as the precip lightened up .. bummer .
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Solid Accums. in Bethlehem. Apologies for the rotated picture. no clue why it did that. Just spin your head 90 degrees
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Substantial snow on ALL surfaces now in Bethlehem. Roads started as slush, but now looks more solid as the snow continues to fall at a heavy rate. Loving this! Let it Snow!
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
You guys are making me depressed... snowing everywhere but where i'm at, just rain.. lol my luck.
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Nick, perfect! Thank you very much!
3 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
Doylestown, PA coming down harder. I don't know why this picture is sideways lol
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Does this remind anyone of Dec 5th 2013?? Called for rain and boom 8" of snow.
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Nick, is there anyway to get an overlay of Surface Level pressure on the maps on WeatherTap. Been trying to figure it out but can't seem to find it anywhere. If not, is there a map you recommend for realtime SLP?
3 years ago
Howboutthatsnow
Howboutthatsnow
I'm a new member, this storm got me so excited. It's all snow here in Wydnmoor (just to the northwest of Philly) starting to stick to grass. Coming down really hard right now
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Just had my road plowed
3 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
Coating in Doylestown, Pa Central Bucks County. All snow right now with the temperature sitting right on 32 degrees. What do you guys think for doylestown? We're right on the line for advisory/warning so I wanted to see what you guys think...thanks!!
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Armando my friend, your insight just made my day. Thank you! The fact that this storm has one hand on the cold air from the north and STILL has another on the moisture from the gulf is amazing. Didn't think something like this would be possible this early in the season.
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
@jeffro, thanks man.. like i said i look at the models but still learn as the days go by so you'll never hear/see me making projections.. i just assumed the hole would stay and screw over a fellow snow lover.
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Road Update (For Bethlehem and Surrounding):
Snow is sticking to all surfaces. Still coming down at a good clip with large flakes. Every road has, at the least, a slushy covering. The heavier the travel on that road, the more water in the slush mix. The less traveled roads have more snow in their mix. Use caution out there especially when coming downhill. PennDOT has begun their salting process. Getting up the driveway in a front wheel drive 2013 fusion proved slightly challenging, and things are only going to get worse. Please be safe out there today guys if you're travelling. Don't underestimate the power of slush.
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
I have 1.5" so far
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
@chrislong I would say in the next 45mins you should change.
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
yeah i saw your post and got me excited until I looked out the window haha.. I just don't want the typical circle around me to sleet, I've got a feeling that's the case (no data to back up my assumption don't crucify me)
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
33 in stowe on the berks mont border all snow for last 20 min. starting to stick on grass and cars but not really coming down all that hard yet.
3 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
I'm working in Bristol, PA (5 min from Route 1 bridge to Trenton, NJ) and it's still all rain here.. I see everyone around is starting to see snow, hoping the hole fills in and gets me the hell out of work haha
3 years ago
pianomanharry
pianomanharry
All snow in West Chester now.
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
jeffro where in Collegeville are you? I'm in Schwenksville....Thanks Armando..
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Almost all snow in Collegeville, Pa at 38F - school letting out early.
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
With the change over starting earlier, what is the duration time frame for the storm now?
3 years ago
pianomanharry
pianomanharry
Mixing going on in West Chester.
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Buzz, google "WeatherTap" and it is the first option. Sign up through their website, its free for 2 weeks with no credit card required. And finally below freezing in the 18020!!!!
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
32 degrees and dew point is 32
3 years ago
Buzz
Buzz
Where do u sign up for radar?
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Snow starting to mix with rain in Swedesboro, NJ. SWestern NJ
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
change over is starting in Souderton
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Thanks for the recommendation Nick, I'll definitely check it out!
Edit: 32.2 degrees in Bethlehem (18020) Let it SNOW!
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Nick, that is the best radar so far. where did you find that!
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Thanks Nick!
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
@Nick, is that the WeatherTap model? I head Steve D using that was able to see the crash a lot faster than other radars were.
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I can see this storm really coming through! It is already mixing right now in Haddon Heights, NJ! The radar says rain, but it really is sleet.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Hi-Res has quite a bit of rain in the area but I do see that the crash is happening quickly.
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Snowfall rates have picked up in Bethlehem. Still very large flakes and the grass/cars are beginning to accept accumulation. Temperature is 33.2 and falling. Oh so close to that freezing mark! Let it snow!
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
Roads are getting snow covered. I'll post pics
3 years ago
Brett_Broczkowski
Brett_Broczkowski
Hmm, yeah a large number of the radars have collegeville in the rain yet, and the temperature accounts for that. However, Steve D mentioned that his radar model (WeatherTap) just showed the R/S line crashing SE to account for the fact that it has been moving faster than expected.
Edit: watching the trend of the R/S line moving SE, it seems odd that there is a "bubble" of rain around the PHL and burbs. The line seems to be pushing faster on either side of that bubble, and while still pushing into Philly, it seems to be moving slower within that area. Anyone else seeing that? Any reason for this phenomenon?
3 years ago
HP4comp
HP4comp
TWC is saying oops it was 43 in Atlantic city. That was suppose to be their high temp this afternoon. They said cold air is moving in sooner than expected
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Current temp in Collegeville, Pa is 39F
3 years ago
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