MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Nor'easter Watch 3 storms to watch the next 16 days. Plunging Signals = Big Snow! 10:45PM DEC 15

Discussion started by robweather 3 years ago

Screen Shot 2014-12-16 at 12.08.27 AM

 

I like to call this pattern a step down to winter.  As we head into the second half of December things will change and they may change in a BIG way. We are heading into step one this weekend with the last step right before the new year.

THE BIG TWO SIGNALS

PAVE THE WAY!

Noreaster graphic

If you want to increase the chance of a snowstorm by New Year's Eve just look the signals above and smile. Snow lovers this is what you need to change the pattern and get the old snow machine going again.  It's not a guarantee for a nor'easter but it's in the right direction.

MODELS MODELS MODELS

Screen Shot 2014-12-15 at 9.33.01 PM

The European model (ECMWF) has been so steady this fall with very good consistency from run to run and I lean on this model the next few days. The GFS has been doing a better job in the short range of 0-60 hrs so we'll see how it gets into the game here soon. We do not have cold, Arctic air to work with with this first of three storms so we play the "marginal" temps again once again.

Screen Shot 2014-12-15 at 10.12.14 PM

The GFS has been wishy washy with this storm and my take it with an active jet and pattern this should not be a weak system out to sea at this point. I see the GFS changing its tune by Wednesday or Wednesday night. 

Screen Shot 2014-12-15 at 10.29.20 PM

The Canadian looks like it might be coming around to the Euro idea. We have plenty of time to watch this with the storm still 4-5 days away. It made the storm a little bigger and stronger on this last run.

______________________________________________

MY THOUGHTS ON

THE STORM SO FAR...

I like the track of the Euro model but don't like the lack of cold air for this storm. Sure we can grab some cold into the storm but we are playing the marginal temps again esp. from the Lehigh Valley south. It will be colder north but the track would mean less snow up in the Lehigh Valley and NW NJ so it might be a wash.  Time is on our side and Tuesday we'll start to watch for trending on the models. This is step 1 of 3 into the start of winter and my gut feeling is the Dec 30-31 as the real nor'easter this month.

 

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Bmore Snowhound
Bmore Snowhound
Too bad some people here feel the need to ban people who have different opinions. This site should be open to everyone regardless of their experience or forecasts.
3 years ago
Spartanguy83
Spartanguy83
Dear baby Jesus!!! The solution is NOT to make blogs private, but rather have effective moderation of posts. It's not hard people! Who are the moderators? Heck, I'll volunteer to moderate. It's now becoming laughable!!
3 years ago
devasew
devasew
Like a lot of the others that are posting tonight, I've been a lurker (as both a member and as a guest) for a while and it's a huge disappointment to see all of the knowledgeable bloggers run into private chats to discuss the very thing all of us are here for.

Ignore the idiots like "Charles"; he just craves attention and responses from the more authoritative people. If everyone would ignore his rants, he'd get bored and go trolling somewhere else. Let all of us know what we need to do to get moderators on this site. Hopefully everyone that made this site worth reading will come back in the near future.
3 years ago
yankees26
yankees26
wow, I totally forgot about HAIR and his pert plus, lol he was great!!
3 years ago
jesstutt
jesstutt
This is my first post. I have been following the blogs here for two years. I joined as soon as this site rolled over into the new version (which is pretty good the last one was so glitchy.) I am an unexpected weather nut ever since the winter of 93. I am a 35 year old stay at home mom who wishes I had studied meteorology instead of psychology. Therefore, I don't know what the heck I am saying so I typically read a few times a day during snow season but never comment. I guess that's my mistake at a time like this... I just wanted to add my voice in to say I would really be bummed if I didn't get to see Armando's and others' posts anymore. It's such a bummer that Charles or other trolls may have ruined it for everyone. It was getting really annoying though so I do understand. But, I am bummed.

I'm also really hoping Oak comes back so we can join the Oak train again.

Well... I am out of the shadows now, so may as well stay. Waves to everyone. Fingers crossed for these next two weeks. Would love to see some snow.

Also if Santa could send some moderators, that would be cool too.
3 years ago
yankees26
yankees26
wow, I have followed rob since the fox philly days. joined the military been to florida, cali, afgan, Africa, and north Carolina. So basically out of touch for 4 years unless I came home like for the Christmas 2010 storm or if I came home in the winter. always knowledgeable people on here. just got out and moved back to jersey. Is this really what his site has become? you have to join a private group just to keep children out? just ignore the moron(s). does he really have that much power over you? There are a lot worse things in this world than someone saying cancel winter or its gonna rain. god forbid it rains in the winter. I love snow and your discussions wish every storm would be like buffalo but its the mid atlantic, things have to be just right and its what makes these storms awesome to track for the winter.. don't post a lot , well very rarely but the people on this site is what makes it special. you guys provide a very in depth analysis of winter storms that think outside the box and I enjoy reading it. ignore the idiots , if you don't mind add me to this group , I enjoy reading, if not I guess this is it, lol. thank you.
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
Well goodnight guys pray for our pattern shift to pan out pray for snow and pray that this site can get back to normal. Think snow!
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
@sweitskier need more mods. Doesn't seem like there's any moderating at all hardly.
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Rob it's unfortunate your site is coming to this! Allowing members to privatize their comments is going to cause you to lose a lot of people! Diidnt realize our worthiness to participate was being judged by those with more knowledge of weather! So sad a couple comments cause this even sadder is it worked! Would have been easier to ignore them, likemost did I'm sure!
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
Can't they IP Ban the nusiance accounts? That would fix a lot of problems...
3 years ago
SamsonLove1995
SamsonLove1995
in the same boat as you guys but not have been here as long. Oh well
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
@weatherwather @patbrown1117 I know it's very sad I've been using this site for quite awhile but oh well. I wish there was something that could be done.
3 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
@needmoresnow7 unfortunately without active moderators, the in depth discussions (led by Armando, Nick, and others) have been overran by a zoo animal. This annoys the experts for a good reason and limits our casual learning by being view only / less credible members
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
Well since everyone's getting locked out of the meaningful discussions does anyone know of other good sites to learn about weather and track systems?
3 years ago
weatherwatcher
weatherwatcher
so this is what this site is gonna become now....weather elite-ism deciding who gets to read threads and hang with the cool kids....so sad
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
@patbrown1117 agreed
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Armando are you blowing me off? My name is John I live in the Reading area! I don't comment much - I'm more interested in your comments- and reporting current ops!
3 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
Whatever happened to HAIR and FSU Wenner? Those were the golden days of this site!
3 years ago
mattikid75
mattikid75
My name is Matt Schiele from Perkasie PA, you can look me up on Facebook, I have the American flag as my picture there. Just came to this website to get a better understnading form weather and hope to learn. So will be reading, listening and may ask a question occassionally, .
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
Will we not be able to talk about weather publicly anymore? I've been using this site to learn about weather for years ever since the pert plus hoozah, all is hair feel my hair days.
3 years ago
Philweather
Philweather
Armando, Joe and others thank for the work on the site. I have been on the site since day one. i have seen great people come and go. thank you
3 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
For those of still here to talk weather, we need to understand there is a pattern in place that is slowly changing to more favorable conditions for mid Atlantic snow. Change takes time especially with such a harsh contrast (pacific air vs polar) . Each storm between this past weeks storm and the next one this weekend/early next week are setting the stage slowly. The Christmas storm, regardless of track, warmth, and precip, will be the bowling ball & the closer to the pattern change due to the sheer strength. Blocking will lock in afterwards as well as the development of ridging in the GOA / pacific to open the rush of true cold air to pour into the midwest & east while building deep troughs capable of pulling in GOM moisture to support storms tracking along the coast. The subtropical jet is not lacking of moisture so it's only a matter of when, not if, the snowstorms (moderate and/or significant) target the eastern 2/3 of US on a consistent basis. Patience and enjoy the table setting
3 years ago
Philweather
Philweather
Armando can you add me to.
3 years ago
SamsonLove1995
SamsonLove1995
ok thanks man. and add me on Facebook as well
3 years ago
Philweather
Philweather
i do. He was a fun times with
3 years ago
SamsonLove1995
SamsonLove1995
I'm completely fine with gaining trust. My name is exactly samson love and live right outside of philadelphia in a town called bala cynwyd in montgomery county
3 years ago
weatherwatcher
weatherwatcher
i was talking about hair...do you not remember him jeffro?
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
hair

oh the good ol' days
3 years ago
SamsonLove1995
SamsonLove1995
brandon look me up on Facebook as samson love. ill appear as a student from lower merion high school. eager to learn. talk to me, we can have a conversation
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
weatherwatcher... it is actually that kind of talk that turns me off most. I don't know you. Never heard of you before. Now you talk of whores...
NOPE.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Funny. Every "new" account has numbers at the end of the name. Plus where did all of these people suddenly appear from tonight?
3 years ago
weatherwatcher
weatherwatcher
just wondering if the qualification of getting an invite to new thread is based on if you're new or not(charles or not)? i've been around long enough to know about hair and his ac quality whores and the power of pert...does that get me in?
3 years ago
SamsonLove1995
SamsonLove1995
Whats up everyone! New to the site, hoping to get some good insight on the weather. Was getting tired of all of the weather channel crap. I am a senior from Lower Merion High School and love the weather!
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
I have been on the site from 2010-2013. But it went downhill once the charles character joined so I left for americanwx.But I came back to see if things changed.
3 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
ballz97fm I sent you an invite.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
You mean new like TeleConnectSnow?
3 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
Moderators, if there are any, there really should be an approval of comments posted. I've long enjoyed this site since the days of Defino, Dimartino, Oak, and Levi (tropics) and the lack of basic web security / control has made this site a zoo. Unbearable. Especially with the daily excitement of this progressive pattern changing into a dynamic winter, it'd be great to read science based opinions than a day full of nonsense & bickering. Get control of your business!
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Isn't it funny all a sudden all these new screen names are popping up claiming to be new?
3 years ago
mattikid75
mattikid75
I am new to this site, and a novice when come to the weather. If have any questiosn who are most knowledgeable to ask or follow
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
I would like to be included as well Armando!
3 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
Charles thanks for ruining the educational value of this website with your stupidity and zero respect for others. Get a life and troll another site that is full of nonsense & clowns like you.
3 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Nick. I approved you. There are very weird things happening.
3 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
It is so easy to see you on other accounts but how you word things. I'm out, im sorry, he will find a way into the blog one way or another.
3 years ago
graubar2
graubar2
Can you guys add me in too? Been watching the site and reading for over a year now but never created an account. Thanks!
3 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
philsfan flyershockey, see the theme here. Don't accept flyershockey it's charles, I'll get a MOD to IP track it also. I'll be over on usawx/americanwx for a few minutes, but want this site to get back to what it used to be. Keep it clean.
3 years ago
Schooter
Schooter
LOL I'm in now Armando. I went back to my profile and all the sudden the group appeared under my groups. Weird how it took a few minutes to let me in after I hit join
3 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
I'm sorry, but this blog thing isn't going to do anything. Charles will just create an account, and ask to be in it without you guys knowing. It's obvious Hanksroot is him, the account was not a long time member, and who knows about flyershockey, fits the profile of a charles account. Just want to give you guys a warning here.
3 years ago
Schooter
Schooter
Armando can you or jeff reinvite me, I tried accepting it but something weird happened and it wouldn't add me to the group. My invite under my notifications went away as well lol.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Same here Nick.
3 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
3 years ago
Hanksroot
Hanksroot
Can I join in? Been a longtime member
3 years ago
weatherwatcher
weatherwatcher
hey armando, i realize you're probably busy but when you get a chance i'd like to get in on the new thread...invite/friend request sent...thanks
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
liverpool.....I invited you. I don't know what else to say. Something has to be showing in your notifications.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
schooter, i guess we're the outcasts, lol
3 years ago
Schooter
Schooter
Armando, I did accept your friend request but like liverpool I'm not seeing the safe haven group under my groups. I'm only seeing it on the main page.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Armando, under my groups all it shows is the mid-atlantic, i see the safe haven group on the main page of the website, but when i click on it is says it is a private group and you have to be invited
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
is KNaylz the moderator?
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Hey guys. I just woke up from a 5 hour nap (MUCH needed) and see 105 notifications. I got some reading to do. By the wy, thanks Armando for inviting me to the group. Great idea.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
Schooter
Schooter
Armando I got your friend invite, thanks!
3 years ago
Schooter
Schooter
Hey Armando I would be interested in joining the group if that is ok
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
lol, i guess its not meant to be for me because it is still not showing up under my groups, lol
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
liverpoolfcfan try clicking on the house symbol.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
the global notification symbol right? i click on that and it says that jeffro tagged me in this discussion, but when i click on it, it brings me right back here, not sure if he tagged the wrong discussion by accident?
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
@Armando, got your friend invite, thank you, @jeffro, i went under my profile page but i still don't see the invite, maybe I am missing something, lol?
3 years ago
Ksiegel35
Ksiegel35
Guys can you add me thanks
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
liverpoolfcfan I cannot resend. You have to go to your profile page to accept my invite.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
could you resend the invite please, I have not received it
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
@liverpool I sent an invite
@LoveDelaware - I sent you a friend request to add you.
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Invite please? Thanks!
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
123 - Go to your profile page and look at your groups. The group will be there and click on it.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
jeffro, can I get the invite please, thank you
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
This is the only way to self-moderate when no one else is policing the site. Sorry.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
EvieD
EvieD
wait, so you guys are now going to talk weather under the guise of a private group? This is getting ridiculous..
3 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
Guys Keep us posted ....for the ones that been here for a long time and like to follow the weather and storms...
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Armando No one can be in the group unless I invite them. It is officially a PRIVATE group
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
I created a private group but I cannot invite you until you a "friend" - so @Joe Repko, Armando, Freeze....please send me a friend request.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
@Armando invite here too please
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
@Armando please invite me if you get it going.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
can I get an invite if a private discussion gets started please
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
I have an idea I want to test...
Anyone who mentions "that person" in their post, is actually "that person".
3 years ago
EvieD
EvieD
I came back to see what is up with the weather. It has been several months and I see nothing has changed since I left. Still looks like Charles is harassing people and everyone is arguing with him. WTH. I am still not sure what I paid money for, way back when. Can't we just get some good weather discussions going?
3 years ago

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