I like to call this pattern a step down to winter. As we head into the second half of December things will change and they may change in a BIG way. We are heading into step one this weekend with the last step right before the new year.
THE BIG TWO SIGNALS
PAVE THE WAY!
If you want to increase the chance of a snowstorm by New Year's Eve just look the signals above and smile. Snow lovers this is what you need to change the pattern and get the old snow machine going again. It's not a guarantee for a nor'easter but it's in the right direction.
MODELS MODELS MODELS
The European model (ECMWF) has been so steady this fall with very good consistency from run to run and I lean on this model the next few days. The GFS has been doing a better job in the short range of 0-60 hrs so we'll see how it gets into the game here soon. We do not have cold, Arctic air to work with with this first of three storms so we play the "marginal" temps again once again.
The GFS has been wishy washy with this storm and my take it with an active jet and pattern this should not be a weak system out to sea at this point. I see the GFS changing its tune by Wednesday or Wednesday night.
The Canadian looks like it might be coming around to the Euro idea. We have plenty of time to watch this with the storm still 4-5 days away. It made the storm a little bigger and stronger on this last run.
MY THOUGHTS ON
THE STORM SO FAR...
I like the track of the Euro model but don't like the lack of cold air for this storm. Sure we can grab some cold into the storm but we are playing the marginal temps again esp. from the Lehigh Valley south. It will be colder north but the track would mean less snow up in the Lehigh Valley and NW NJ so it might be a wash. Time is on our side and Tuesday we'll start to watch for trending on the models. This is step 1 of 3 into the start of winter and my gut feeling is the Dec 30-31 as the real nor'easter this month.
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