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Will The East Coast Winter Wake UP??!?!?

Discussion started by FreezeMizer 3 years ago

Good day to all and a very HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

It’s amazing what a great night of sleep will do to help get over the flu!

 

I’ve been meaning to write this for a bit, but have been under the weather for the last 5 or so days. I’d like to cover our current scenario, discuss why we’re missing the snow, and what has to happen to help things out.  It's a long read - but hopefully a good one.

 

First I want to start with a cold hard fact. We are in ENSO neutral conditions overall with a current ONI value that indicates potential El Nino conditions. We are NOT in a weak El Nino yet. I’ve seen a lot of people state that and I thought we would be there by now, but we are not.

 

The definition of El Nino is a bit confusing. On one hand the CPC considers El Nino “conditions” to occur when the Nino 3.4 index is +0.5 for 3 straight months, however, they also say that in order to get into a full fledged El Nino episode we need to have five over-lapping Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) periods register +0.5 or better. (an ONI period is a 3 month indices – e.g., SOD was +0.5)

 

So the question is whether or not we have some El Nino conditions impacting the current patterns, or if they aren’t since it really isn’t a full-fledged El Nino episode yet. Always nice when it’s so straight forward!!

 

The first question to ask is what does El Nino “conditions” mean? Well, here ya go. There are three components to having an El Nino “condition”. (sounds like a bad rash!)

  1. Current ONI value ≥ +0.5 (check!)
  2. Warm SSTs will remain for the next few months (check!)
  3. An atmospheric response “associated” with an El Nino (nope)

 

“In a nutshell, the typical El Niño atmospheric response includes reduced rainfall over Indonesia, more rainfall over the central Pacific, and some weakening of the low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds (the Walker circulation) along the equator. “ (source: December's ENSO Update: Close, but no cigar. Author: Emily Becker)

 

Highly recommended reading: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/decembers-enso-update-close-no-cigar

 

Based on the sited article above – we’re not quite there yet because #3 isn’t a complete yes. However, that doesn’t’ mean we can’t see some impact in different parts of the globe.

 

I’ve looked at the weekly indices for the Nino 3.4 region. Even if the current negative anomalies continue, it looks like the ONI values will hover around the +0.5 mark. It could go below, it could go above, we’ll have to wait and see. Even the monthly outlook has been trending down on the chances of El Nino compared to a few months ago.

 

So for now we have an El Nino not quite there, but looks to be setting in, and maybe some impact being seen in current weather patterns, with a recent negative anomaly in the 3.4 region – will that continue?

 

You could look for analogs of other El Nino winters, but I’m not usually a big fan of doing that unless you combine it with all the other signals (and SSTs) and then look for more true analog comparisons. I’m not saying it’s wrong to look at analogs, it’s ok to give a general sense of potential outcome, but given our weather is so different than even 10 years ago with more volatile storms, plus other conditions of that analog year could have been very different, etc..  So I take it with a grain of salt, and don’t base any of my outlooks off analogs for that reason. Consider what we saw last winter. Who wasn’t surprised by that outcome given the setup and looking at analogs for that year?

 

If you're going to do an analog, then do your homework, and do it right.  Connect other factors to form a more true analog.  Indices, SSTs, seasonal precip outcome, monthly temps, snow cover, ICE extent, etc.. Find analgos that connect all those things together that look similar to what we're seeing.  It's too easy to merely reference a high level analog and state an outlook.  Use them as a starting point to indicate potential outcomes, but dig in further. 

 

The bottom line to me is that our current scenario is not as much a pure factor of ENSO as it is other things.

 

If we roll with that, then the truth lies somewhere else. What else is more of a cause of this weird pattern where the east is being blocked from getting the winter weather and more importantly, the snowstorms?

 

This is where I believe we have to look at the other contributing factors to patterns. There are so many it really is hard to connect all the dots, and they always interact differently with just minor changes, but that’s the challenge. But we at LWB don’t back away from challenges.

 

Here’s my take on things.

 

There has been a lot of discussion on the QBO, and yes, it is a contributing factor. So let’s say that is one part of the equation. But I think we’d be foolish to think that’s all it is about. Below are a few other major players to cover.

 

EPO – negative. Wow. We like negative, but it’s not making the impact like we saw last year, at least not yet. So it’s a good thing, but maybe a bit different than last year (maybe more west based), but still a good thing. If it stays negative and some things change, then we’re in business.

 

AO – combine this with the SSW and I think we have another case of signals trying to come to the table, but are struggling to get there.  Th outlook is not supoprtive for the AO - yet.

 

PNA – I liken this signal more to the influence of some other things around it, so while it looks non-supportive, I don’t think it is the contributing factor, I think it’s being held back by other things.

 

MJO – a difficult and hard to connect factor. From what I’ve read it has been disorganized recently but showing signs of reorganization. (Does that help El Nino set in more?) The outlook has it heading toward phase 5. The question I ask is whether this is a factor in influencing our weather pattern, or more of an indicator of understanding potential weather patterns given its current state. Maybe a little of both.

 

NAO – positive, results in fast moving storms as far as current impact. But there’s more to it than that. Based on some research I’ve done a negative NAO leads to SST warming in the Atlantic, and a positive NAO leads to SST cooling. We had a fairly negative NAO this past year. See chart below. More to come on this later.

 

Annual NOA 

Source: NOAA/CPC

SSTs – ah yes. Let’s spend a little time here as I think this is having the most impact on what’s going on right now.

 

Below is the current SST map.

 

sst.daily

 Source: NOAA/ESRL/PSD

More importantly is the SST anomalies below.

 

cdas-sflux ssta global 1

Source: Tropicalidbits.com

 

Let’s start on the left side, the Pacific. These warm Pac waters (particularly northern and along the US west coast) combined with a strong SJET are just pummeling the storms into the west coast. Good stuff, but it’s not working out for us in the east. Yet. So keep it up Pacific! We’ll need you in the end.

 

Next let’s look at our own pond on the right side, the Atlantic. Warm, warm, warm. The western and northern Atlantic are warm, too warm. Go back to a negative NAO causing Atlantic SSTs to warm. Well, they did, and they are.

 

Having a warm Atlantic is not a bad thing, but it really depends on how warm, and where it’s warm. The western Atlantic is too warm, I’d like it to cool down a bit, but maybe stay a nudge warm. The northern Atlantic is just too warm and needs to cool down.

 

This current Atlantic SST scenario is supporting the main ingredient to our lousy winter so far. A ridge in the east. The SE ridge is part of it, but it really is a ridge along the entire east. This is causing a west-based winter so far. It also is a factor as to why we have a postive NAO/AO.  This setup is also forcing the SJET up into the Ohio valley which warms up the upper atmosphere, and eventually warms up the lower levels. I believe this is also contributing to the spilt flow as well. As a result this provides the main path of systems to be, unfortunately, cutters.  Below is a picture of the current scenario.

 

east ridge and cutter

 

I'm not saying this is the only scenario we've seen.  But I think it's been the dominant one over the last few weeks.

 

But there is some good news. The Atlantic is starting to cool (see below for the current weekly SST change). How much does it need to cool to relax the ridge and allow winter to shift east? I have no freakin idea. I just want to see it keep cooling over the next couple of weeks, which I believe it will do. That will result in the ridge relaxing in the east and allow for the other signals to become more of a factor. Troughs will come east, SJET will more shift towards east coast, cold air will be allowed to come in and stay, etc..

 

cdas-sflux ssta7diff global 1

 Source: TropicalTidbits.com

This doesn’t mean it will snow big, or snow at all, but it does mean we stand much better chance that we see snow events in the east. The larger impact of ENSO needs to be watched, particularly the “conditions” we need to monitor.

 

Hold tight folks. In the end it may end up nil, but by my calcs we have at least 10 weeks to go and things are already in motion to support change. I, like all of you, wish it would change overnight, but it is what it is and we have to roll with it.

 

I always think of events in terms of players, placement and timing.  We've had players, but the placement and timing has sucked.  If these changes stay on course, then we'll be in better shape across all three.

 

My outlook was 28-35" for the Phily area.  I don't change my winter outlooks.  They're either wrong or right.  No harm in being wrong.  And for now, even if I did consider changing it, I wouldn't.

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atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Arman, I used to snowboard but haven't in many a year. I'm not a real big snow sports guy. But yeah on to the weather, I highly doubt the weather channel is right with saying 68 tomorrow. I doubt we'll reach 60 tomorrow even! It's (according to my outdoor weather gauge system) only 38.8 degrees right now! Not much of a warm up if you ask me from today's 36 at around 2pm. Which is good, because no matter what, we're getting down to a bitter cold 10 degrees this week! As low of course. So far most are in agreement with snow for tuesday. Now, it does all depend on how strong of a clipper it is. Temps are no problem, 31 as a high! A little close, but if it starts in the morning, it'll be in the low 20's, and certainly will start to stick. I see it snowing consistently throughout the day in to the night with anywhere from a coating to 2 to maybe 3-5 if it is good enough. If the system really get's amped up, we could see close to a half a foot falling, giving schools a 2 hr delay maybe for Wednesday, but unlikely.
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
Great work as usual guys! Keep up the good work and keep those insights coming! I surely appreciate all your knowledge and guidance!
3 years ago
Spartanguy83
Spartanguy83
You guys had to go and get into it with him again! Smh
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Hey guys, I don't feel like scrolling through comments earlier but Am I seeing some moisture to the south developing into a low and coming up the coast late in this storm, maybe Monday? it looks like the temps drop back into the freezing precip. maybe a 1-3,2-4 area... I'm not a pro but the GFS is hinting at it.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
You had me double checking the calendar, do you know it is only the 3rd of Jan and your talking about the 15th-22nd of Jan.......... STOP!! You guys kill me, when you keep looking that far ahead, there is a .05% of that even happening but we keep teasing ourselves. I know it will snow soon and the probably will come on something not even model right, it just will pop up 1 day on the models and it will be within 5 days of hitting us. Also, I mentioned I feel like a hundreds of times, stop feeding into him. Don't mention his name or answer him, act like he isn't here. I hear yeah I will but then I see the same people feeding into him.. I feel like I'm talking to 4 yr olds... yeah dad and then do what they want, then come crying back!!
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Good eyes TCS. I've been watching that for a few days. For a long range look, it's catching my eye.

Btw, good to have you back.
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
There are some signs though Nick finally of the GFS advertising a -NAO, however, its pointless to look into that right now as it is too far out, so it will change for the worse of better.
AS for the clipper, if your location pops down about 1-3 inches, expect it to stay on the ground for a good amount of time, and adding snow on the ground with this arctic blast, you bet you will see temps near 0 I have a feeling.
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Right now the El Nino is losing a bit of steam, so I highly doubt we even come close to mod-strong el nino next year.
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
How about no one even respond or have his name in your comment. Just let him post and talk to himself. We are feeding him. So please stop it, the sight is unreadable right now.

However,
Winter is Coming and is about to hit hard. I am seeing some nice signs of a MECS from around the 15-21st of JAN. That is my time period that I like, this will indeed be a backloaded winter. Things are definitely going to get exciting around here very soon guys, so lets kill the winter cancel notes, cause I can't take that stupidity anymore.
3 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
The 12z nam actually had a shift south and the gfs is just shifting either direct hit in philly or just 50 miles to the north so this storm should be interesting to track. I think the energy will dig far enough south that philly will get accumulating snow. Have fun snowboarding Armando!
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Hey david! It's sleeting down here back at Heights. Totally can see you getting 3-4. Can't wait to see what happens this tuesday. Agreed with you lovedelawaresnow.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
LOL Charles is the biggest CLOWN to ever post on this website.
3 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
I'm at my vacation house in the Poconos and it's snowing very hard and it's only 26 degrees. Looking at it over performing with 3-4 inches of snow before changing to ice and rain later tonight.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
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PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Arman, love the explantion. You really know your stuff! Way better than I do, and I thought after 6 years of winter forecasting I'd be good at this stuff haha. Yeah, I totally agree with on the tuesday clipper. Those guys can give us a half a foot if it really wanted to.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
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PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Well Jon and arman, at least we're getting some winter precip for now. Oh yeah Arman I do want to hear what you thin about tuesday. It looks damn interesting! Some snow coming it seems so far.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
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PhilsPhan1
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PhilsPhan1
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PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
The slopes! Nice! Blue mt for me next weekend! No snow for me this weekend in Hammonton NJ with fiancé ! Enjoy the diamonds!
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Sleet here in Haddon Heights, NJ! This storm is doing something weird. It's bringing down cold air almost, which I know is impossible for a low pressure, unless the polar vortex is strengthening and is giving us sleet. But I ain't lying, sleet here. Hell, look at the radar, there's a lot more wintry precip than was expected, even for western PA.
3 years ago
Hanksroot
Hanksroot
Armando, just a little older then you. I was 29 during the blizzard of 96 and lived in northeast Philly at that time. By far the best storm! My wife and I had to get to New York 2 days later and neighbors had to help us out to the main road...fun times!!! Anyway, thanks for all the updates!! Regarding the rest of winter please watch JB Saturday summary on weatherbell. Great explanation on set up of the nao, ao later in the season. By the way snowing in richboro pa
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
96 was the only storm that scared me. lol i remeber hearing the wind gusts waking me up sun. nite (just like hurricane sandy) and thinking the tree was going to crash through the house . also i remeber sunday nite it tapered off and was forcast to stop but when i got up at 8:00 am and saw that we got another 6 inches of wrap around and still snowing moderatly i said omg ! i'll have to ask the wife what happened to the pics . i had a 92 ford ranger with a cap that was completely burried
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Great memories John Scrum I was in 10th grade in 83 lived in NE Berks then 28" there too! I measured 32 in Reading in 96! Would love to see another one of those or a repeat of February 2010!
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Alicia- Unfortunately not really. This is tough going so far. When I wrote my outlook I knew it had as good a chance to bust high or low. Haven't had that sense in a few years. Though I did see a fair share of cutters in the mix, glad I got that right! Not!

Anyway, there is a lot tof look at, but more in the sense of whether we can get a few things to shift and give the players, placement and timing a better chance. Some signs of that, but again, in longer range analysis it's very volatile with lots of differences more than consensus. So for now, no particular event, just trying to see if real potential shows up.

Remembering 1983 was a great reminder that you're never out of the game. I would guess if this was January 1983 and we had the tools/tech and data we have now, we'd be blogging that we would potentially get nothing all winter.

So the hunt continues.
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
I know it's WAY far out, and anything can happen, but is there at least event on the horizon with keeping in the back of your mind? Signals are looking to come together towards mid-late month and i'm just wondering if there's anything to keep an eye on in the long range (besides cold dry weather lol)
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
No sweat Nick. It's always tough finding comparisons b/c like 1983 - who the heck knows what's going to happen?

JS/W71 - just an awesome storm. the best info I could find were three models - nested Grid Model (NGM), ETA (now called NAM!) and Aviation model (NVM). I can only imagine how long the runs took to generate the data and graphics!

If the records I'm looking at are correct, that storm dumped over 20" in 24 hours in Philly. And that January only had 0.2" of snow. Talk about getting to your average the hard way!
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
weatherman were you from ? . in 96 we had no mixing at all up here in pottstown. 93 was the one that was actually a dud around pottstown we got 15 inches and a lot of wind but there was like a 5 hr window of heavy sleet and freezing rain at the hieght of the storm and yes 83 was a great one..
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
Blizzard of 83 is still number 1 in my book, 96 and 03 had some mixing issues, and the 2009,10 storms lacked the heavy wind and thundersnow that the 83 storm featured.
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
cool freeze i was wondering if i was the only old guy ,LOL
i remember herb clark he was talking about the storm at least 5 days out and about 3 days out he the anchor said herb ,how much we going to get Herb said about 2 feet .. i wonder what models they used back then they always seemed to nail it days in advance.
i remember the said day jim o"brien died. it was only about 5 miles from me were he died.. sad day
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
JohnScrum - great memory. I'll never forget that one with Big Jim O'Brien outside giving updates. Awesome.

AO in January was 1.3, almost 1.4, dropped to -1.8 for Feb, NAO went from 1.59 in Jan to -.5 in feb, nice positive PNA support, and the EPO was positive! Strong El NINO year as well, established months before and was around 2.0 in Feb 1983.

Go figure. That's why we love MN so much - basically does what she wants, when she wants.
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
just want to throw this out there.
i remember the 82-83 winter well it was almost excactly like this winter so far . always would be cold with a lot of cutters and warm up then rain then get cold again. very frustrating even through january same pattern . but then boom blizzard of 83 2nd best storm in my lifetime only slightly behind the blizzard of 96. constant 40 mph winds, temps in the low teens, 5-7 inch per hr snow and thundersnow . we ended up with close to 28 inches with 7 foot drifts in south east berks county were i lived at the time i believe we will see a similar storm in the jan 26 to feb 16 time frame. no scientific evidence just a good fealing.

philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2010/06/…
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
Sounds exciting hoping for the best!!
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
@nick Im right outside of west Chester pa
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
flyershockey8
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3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
Question. Does penn dott know something that we don't? All the roads in my area are getting brined that seems excessive for one forecasted inch of snow... Is there a chance we may be getting more that just a couple inches?
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
KC - it's all good. no worries. I know what you meant. We could use a good surprise!

Long range is always a tough discussion as it is wildly variable and more like looking into a crystal ball that is foggy! So always take long range discussion with a HUGE grain of salt - around the rim of a nice Margarita!
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Freeze, I never said Armando was wrong!! I just know why I hear that the long range in predicting weather over 5 days out is junk and worthless but I then see the same people looking past 5 days, in the 7-10 day range stating what models and etc are saying... Why put you and us through something to find out 2 -3 days later it is not going to happen... I just said focus on this weekend and then move on to the next 5 days!! Not downing anyone one person, just repeating what they have said!! Keep up the good work.. For some reason, I feel this weekends storm will throw some surprises. Things with it don't seem to line up as modeled, but again I'm not a pro or even close..
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
After next week, there will be a brief warm-up (about 3 days long but it wont be a torch. Maybe low 40s, which is a warm up compared to thr 25 degree weather that we would have experienced a few days prior.

I'm really hoping the the pattern to come through toward the end of the month and beginning of february for snow.

The MJO is still up in the air in that timeframe (as DT's post pointed out), with some showing going to phase 5 then into circle of death, and other showing strong phases 7,8,1 which is a great signal for storms.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
WW - great points as always. AO should come around. NAO should come around (enough) if we can get the Atlantic to keep cooling.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Nice work Armando. I like how you take a lot into consideration and not just one thing.

Kevinc - Armando is correct on this weekend. The challenge will be on the front end only where the warm moisture will override the lower layered cold air. For some it will be light snow/sleet to rain. Others it could be FR for a period of time. Mainly for N&W of Philly. Maybe 1-3" with slop before changeover. We'll need to nowcast that.

The clipper next week will be watched, but too early to see/say much about it. Clippers are always challenging as they tend to get carved up a bit by the might Appalachians. And then you need something to slow it down to explode in the right spot to get decent snow. Right now it suggests 1-3" in Philly area and maybe a decent 4-5" N&W. There will be some good cold air to have some higher ratios N&W. Biggest problem is path and timing. With a NAO+ and not a good trend downward at the time of the event it would suggest a quick mover. But like I said - that's a real early view and clippers will always drive you nuts.

Long range is always something to be looked at - but especially when we have such a non-event period right now, so that's why a lot on here are looking more down the road to see if and how things could change. If you read the blog above the gist is that this winter is different and has different influences at different stages of influence - so the only dang fun we right now have is trying to understand those things and try to determine where it may go.
3 years ago
Schooter
Schooter
Armando great job as usual! I agree that all these nay sayers will be in for a rude awakening not too long from now. Just checked the telleconnections forecasts this morning and how about it, the PNA is forecasted to go back to positive and the models are showing that western ridge being in a good spot for us. The AO and NAO are still forecasted to be positive, but they are starting to show signs of going negative. Gotta watch that clipper next week as those are very unpredictable and can drop more snow than what is forecasted. The track of that wont be nailed down til inside 48 hours. With all the cold air in place, high ratio snows look like a good bet with that! Before we worry about next week, we gotta get through this weekend first and there are a few things to think about. One is that I noticed that the position of the high pressure system as of 11 AM is a little bit further west than what the NAM and RGEM( short range canadian model) had it for that time. The GFS actually had it pretty close and that is showing good front end frozen precip, along with the NAM and RGEM. One has to now wonder if that high will hold on a bit longer to produce a little surprise tomorrow morning before it does change to all rain. Right now the GFS seems to be the most accurate of the models and if that turns out right, 1-3 inches of snow is possible before going over to ice/rain, especially northwest of philly. But as I just said, there could be a surprise waiting for us as I remember a similar situation back in december 2009. The forecast called for mostly all rain with just a touch of snow/ice at the onset. I woke up at 6 am to 3 inches of snow on the ground being washed away by rain. Another thing to watch tonight is how low our temps go. If we can hold on to clear skies a bit longer, temps will be able to drop a bit more and perhaps lead to colder temps to start tomorrow morning. However, when the clouds do move in, the temps will likely warm up a bit or hold steady, but that is another little thing to think about.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Again we are talking about 7-10 days away and we all know the models have sucked badly lately in the over 5 days out range.... So why do we keep sucking ourselves into it!! Can't we just watch what this storm tomorrow into Sunday brings us and then maybe start even discussion a future storm? Isn't there some potential of a small snowfall on the start of storm, maybe 1-3 inches? That would be more helpful then playing the weather dartboard game!!
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Thanks armando doing a great job man have alott of knowlege patience is the key were gna have great month
3 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
2nd half of jan looks very interesting
3 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Armando i jus took a peek at the 00z gfs we have very good chances of snow from jan 10 to 18 we have 2 storms
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
Also of course I meant the tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific one right after another through the summer into the late fall.
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
Well Done Freeze,,,, That last map sums up everything for the lay person who is not a met and that would be me and many others. The warmth we are experiencing has its origins in the Eastern Pacific right where we had one after another tropical system. Well surely enough those waters have not cooled significantly to stop the warming from screaming along the STJ but hey in the end game we need that STJ and that warmth to eventually give us our snowstorms this year I believe later down the road in later January and February. Also great points about the Atlantic quite warm indeed with the most warmth located east of Florida and throughout the Carribean right where that Southeast Ridge has its anchor and then flexes its muscles which it will do once again this Weekend giving us yet more rain and temps flipping from the 30s to the lower 60's Christmas Eve all over again a week and 2 days later!!

You can clearly see another ridge axis developing down there just south of Cuba as we speak ready to open up the gulf for more moisture and warmth again though this is an important piece to keep in place now we just need the +PNA ( I am sure that will come first with the warm waters off the West Coast) then we need a -AO and if we can get a -NAO then we are really setting the stage for a storm capable of producing 15-20" of snow.

Reality right now I see no help from the AO or NAO at this time see how that changes in the coming weeks hopefully by in and around January 20th the snow threats are on the table.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
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3 years ago

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