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Winter Storm (Disturbance?): Slim Pickens...

Discussion started by FreezeMizer 3 years ago

I haven't seen much change in the 00Zs from what I looked at yesterday.  A low pressure system will come on shore today in British Columbia.  It will ride the northern stream across the plains creating a swath of snow along it's path with the mid-west getting a decent amount (8"+)

 

With a split stream the energy does not dive down, and simply rides across the US and exits on the east coast.

 

The question is path and if we can squeeze any snow out of it along the way.  I'll update pics below after the 12Z runs today, but in looing at the 12Z NAM it looks fairly similar (minor differences, nothing to generate any excitement) to its predecessor runs, so for now it's pretty much the same picture. (early look at NAM has a broader area of snow, but less N&W than the 00Z run)

 

There are a couple of things tugging at the energy (upper levels in CA), including the fact that it has to cross the Applachians, which will carve it up a bit, so it loses steam as it travels.

 

For now it looks like a light event for Philly and surrounding burbs.  Possibly more N&W depedning on the amount of steam it loses as it crosses the apps.

 

GFS 18z upper levels

 NAM 18Z upper levels

Updated Summary:

  • Fast moving system crossing the plains to the east coast
  • Split stream doesn't allow it to evolve, or transfer anything effectively
  • Light event for Philly & burbs, possibly more N&W
  • Looks in the order of 1-2" for Philly and burbs at this point.
  • Good ratios as it will be cold.  So dry, fluffy snow

01-04-15 12Z NAM and GFS #s

Location 12Z NAM 12Z GFS
Phl 1.8" 1.8"
ABE 2.3" 1.8"
TTN 1.7" 1.5"
RDG 2.2" 2.2"
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REBELG
REBELG
Never notice flyers hockey, great observation though,you may be correct
3 years ago
flyershockey8
flyershockey8
Removed
3 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
Sticking with the coating to one inch for Philly and SJ. Would not be shocked to see a couple inches though. Looking at all the watches and warnings west of the mountains, impressive. The million dollar question is how organized the system is once it crosses the Appalachians. No question about the cold air that will be in place.... finally! Should be interesting to see if Philly can drop below 40 by mid-night tonight.
@ atrain What was your high temp so far? Saw a lot of 59 to 62 degrees around Haddon Heights a little while ago on wundermap. Tough forecast today with the inversion.
3 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
Coating to a inch anything more I will be shocked !
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
south Jersey 1-2" including central and northern Delaware ...coating to an inch southern Delaware
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
Looking at latest guidance willing to go general 1-3" west of the Delaware River and north of the Mason Dixon Line Maryland Pa border
3 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
Under a inch take that to the bank .Just the facts Jack!
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I was right! I said we wouldn't we reach 60 today, and according to the NWS, TWC and my own weather station all read 53. I don't think it's going to get any warmer today. It almost always starts to get colder between 2-3.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
I agree with all you guys, 1inch with some spots getting 2" but unless your in central pa, not much more!!! Most of the time clippers do strange things in the way of saying 1-3 inches and dropping atrace
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Kevin I totally get that it is a trivial difference. But I just want to throw it out there that some of us have different opinions. I've seen clippers do strange things, so just because it says 1-2, we mustn't let our guard down. Always be wary that storms can change and give us 3 or more. I've learned to expect the unexpected. Either way, at least it's all snow and no rain!
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
Looks like 0.15" liquid either side of Mason Dixon Line Maryland Pa border pretty cold so high ratio snow General 1-2" best call for this system...how it interacts with mountains is always an issue with this type of system though
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Seriously what is the difference??? 1-2 inches or 1-3inches... Freeze says about 1-2 inches, so someone has to blog they think it can sqeeze another inch out of it and say some clippers produce slightly more and do strange things!!!! That is some good backing to your guess!!! Some of you guys always make me laugh, Thank you!!
3 years ago
jim_t20
jim_t20
Last year around December 14th a clipper came through and was only supposed to be an inch, but later that day I walked outside and we had eight inches on the ground so anything can happen.
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I am starting to think this is more than 1-2. I am saying 1-3 with 4+ possible. The storm, from past experience, can easily keep its act together after the apps mountains and gain more energy once it nears the delmarva and atl ocean. I'll stick with 1-3 and I'll say 4+ is certainly possible. I've seen clippers do really strange things. I remember a clipper years ago that dumped a half a foot here. I believe it was back 07'.
3 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
For south jersey its a inch or nothing 123 . y our right in 1985 29 years ago we got 3 inches during a clipper . lol
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Just updated the blog above. Light event. But at least it will be white and not wet.
3 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
ITS a inch its always a inch with clippers .
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Also the Friday clipper has been trending south as well! Ar & Nick will fill us in on that I'm sure!
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Track of clipper appears to have shifted a little south on nam & gfs 1-3 looks like a good call for region?
3 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
Probably a coating to one inch Philly and South Jersey as of now. Tremendous cold coming for sure. Got me wondering about last winter and how this upcoming stretch would compare to last year with consecutive days at 39* or lower at Philly. December 2013 had a 7 day run started with the 8.6 inches of snow. January had a six day run with13.5 inches on the front end. February was the winner with 10 consecutive days at 39* or lower with 3.5 inches front end and another 2.7 inches in the middle of those ten days. What amazes me is that Philly will most likely exceed the 6 or 7 day mark and make a run at 10 days at 39* or lower with most likely very little to no snow cover on the ground to at least start us off on Monday. Could have knocked another 5/10 degrees off those highs and lows for the middle and end week temps with decent snow pack. Hopefully this clipper can dig a little further south than forecasted to below the Mason Dixon line and give us a nice start to the week. Keep the Stoli cold Freeze!
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@Atrain - whatever does fall should have very decent ratios, so it won't take a lot of moisture to get a nice fluffy drop.

@SW - there is - so the next level of watching starts tonight. The storm moving through now makes it a bit harder for the models to see exact solutions for this guppy.
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Thanx Freeze! Plenty of time to add a few more inches!
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Well, it's a good start Freeze. I can see 1-3 being the norm for tuesday, but totally can see less and more. Since the temps are below 32 for sure, hell below 25 too, and if the clipper get's strong enough, I can see 3-6 possible for sure. Clippers can do amazing things if it falls right in place.
3 years ago

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