After we endured heavy rainfall last night with a cold frontal passage this front is now well offshore.
As a result west to west-northwesterly winds have cleared out the skies as these winds are bringing in much drier weather.
These winds will also be responsible in warming our area up to seasonable levels with the help of downsloping effects from the App mountains. In this skew-t below you can clearly see a well defined layer of westerly winds which are responsible in creating a well mixed boundary layer up to the 850 mb level.
From this skew-t(KFRG is on Long Island) we can adiabatically warm temperatures from the 850 mb level. When the environmental profile(yellow) meets the temperature profile(red) This is termed dry adiabatic. With a little math we can recieve the maximum high temperature.
Formula=(dry adiabatic lapse rate)*(height of 850 mb level) + (Temperature at 850 mb)
Dry adiabatic lapse rate= 9.8 C/kilometer
Height of 850 mb= 1400 m= 1.4 km
Temp(850 mb)= -3.7
Applying the formula=((9.8C/km)*(1.4km) + (-3.7))
=10.02 C *1.8
=18.036+32= 50 degrees F
To this temperature I like to add 2 degrees for the maximum high temperature for the afternoon. This technique only works when skies are clear with light winds around 10 mph.
Temperatures this afternoon sholud reach 50 degrees for the Hudson Valley with the lower 50's for Long Island, NYC, NJ, and coastal Conn.