MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

JAN 5…8:35AM UPDATE. Snow Arrives Tomorrow…how much for you?

Discussion started by robweather 2 years ago

Good morning all!

Snow is on the way tomorrow and this is the start of some frigis air this week for the entire Midwest and East Coast. The models are doing a decent job tracking a pesky Alberta Clipper now moving through the Midwest.  Snow totals are up to 5" in the Midwest but the little snow storm will lose some of its punch once hitting the mtns of PA/NY/WV/MD. Here is what the models are saying right now.

Screen Shot 2015-01-05 at 8.06.11 AM

THE NAM MODEL

Philly 1.0" to 1.5" area shows .10" liquid off a 15:1 ratio

Allentown 1.0" to 1.6" and the Lehigh Valley is about the same with .10" of liquid 18:1 ratio.

Baltimore 1-2" shows a bit more on the NAM with .20". Temps are a wee bit warmer but they have a little more liquid to work with for Northern Maryland.

DC area  1-2" of snow off a .16" of liquid to work with Tuesday.

NYC Area .5" to 1.0" is further north of the main storm track so the amounts are lower

South Jersey .7" to 1.2" temps are little warmer and precip just a little less.

The wildcard could be the possible moisture throw back off the Atlantic, we'll know that by mid morning tomorrow. It could bring just a little more snow to parts of SNJ

THE GFS & EUROPEAN  MODEL

Both models are pretty close with liquid output of .08" to .11" so they both sit in the 1.0" to 1.5" of snow range for the Delaware Valley.

The DC area ranges from .11" on the GFS and .06" on the Euro. This still puts the snow about an inch or so.

The NYC area shows .03" on the GFS and .05" on the European model. This keeps the NYC area in the coating to at best 1" of snow.

MY FORECAST

PHILLY: 1.0" to 1.5" of snow STARTS 7-9am ENDS 1-3pm

PHILLY N & W BURBS: 1.0" to 1.7" of snow. STARTS 7-9am ENDS 1-3pm

LEHIGH VALLEY .8" to 1.3"  of snow STARTS 7-9am ENDS 1-3pm

NORTHERN DE: 1.1" to 1.8" of snow STARTS 7-9am ENDS 1-3pm

SOUTH JERSEY: .9" to 1.4" of snow STARTS 8-10am ENDS 2-4pm

CENTRAL NJ: .6" to 1.2" of snow STARTS 9-11am ENDS 2-4pm

NORTH NJ: .4" to 1.0" of snow STARTS 9-11am ENDS 2-4pm

NYC METRO: .3" to .9" of snow STARTS 10a-noon ENDS 2-4pm 

DC METRO: .9" to 1.4" of snow STARTS 6-8am ENDS 12-2pm

BALTIMORE METRO: 1.0" to 1.5" STARTS 6-8am ENDS 12-2pm

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Brandon5
Brandon5
Thanks for including Baltimore this time Rob.
2 years ago
DownTown
DownTown
Hey Rob, nice job breaking out the different locations, and specifying all the details for each. Now, if we could slow the storm and multiply the moisture by 10, then we'd have something to talk about! Thanks again.
2 years ago
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