MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

JAN 6 7:04 AM UPDATE Snow starts…The dry air makes it spotty through Rush Hour

Discussion started by robweather 3 years ago

Screen Shot 2015-01-06 at 7.31.05 AM

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LATEST HRRR MODEL JUST IN...

Screen Shot 2015-01-06 at 7.47.48 AM

This model shows about 2-3" in the DC area up to 2.4" in parts of Western Chester County into Lancaster County. The Philly Metro area looks like 1.0" to maybe 1.5" in spots.

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The snow has started for some but the snow has been spotty as it hits a wall of dry air over NJ DE and PA.  Expect spotty snow though 8am it should come a little more steady after 9am. The best areas for snow right now are in areas south of the mason-dixon line with snow already up 1-2" or so in the DC area. Take it slow through rush hour most of the snow will be light and spotty.

 

WHAT TO EXPECT TODAY...

PHILLY:                             1.1" to 1.6" ENDS 2-4pm as a few snow showers

PHILLY N & W BURBS: 1.1" to 1.6" ENDS 2-4pm as a few snow showers

LEHIGH VALLEY         .9" to 1.5"  ENDS 2-4pm as a few snow showers

NORTHERN DE:         1.5" to 2.2" ENDS 3-5pm as a few snow showers

SOUTH JERSEY:        1.2" to 1.9" ENDS 4-6pm as a few snow showers

CENTRAL NJ:            1.0" to 1.7" ENDS 3-5pm as a few snow showers

NORTH NJ:                 .5" to 1.1" ENDS 3-5pm as a few snow showers

NYC METRO:               .3" to .9" ENDS 5-7pm as a few flurries

DC METRO:                  2.3" to 4.1" ENDS about noon to 2pm as flurries

BALTIMORE METRO: 1.8" to 2.7" ENDS about 12-2pm as flurries

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weatherman71
weatherman71
Hey Nick, the CMC has been consistent for a few days for the Friday system, an inch or two seems reasonable.
3 years ago
Trate
Trate
Just got in from salting some parking lots, was 12 in west Allentown.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Right now it's 15⁰ here when the low was suppose to be 19⁰. Haha awesome!!!
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
Philly hasn't bottomed out at zero since January 1994, I wonder if we can make a run at it tomorrow night.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
I kinda of understand why! But with the temps already below the forecast low temp and many,many hours to still go. It could possibly go down into the area of 5,6,7 degrees, what does that say about the models...
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Radiational cooling Kevin! No wind- snowcover and clearing sky allow for warmth of day to escape quicker into atmosphere, snowcover enhances the cooling. Someone correct me if I missed anything!
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Guys can you help me the temps tonight.. I'm n lower montco and temps were suppose to get as low as 18 but in is already 12. I think it is possible to get as low as 5 or 6 tonight. Am is reading this right and if so, what does this mean in regards to the models?
3 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
Thanks Armando I saw DeFino's blog last week. Good write up for everyone with all his detail. If you sign up for epawa's my pocket met it gets you into the private FB group where they talk like this about the possibilities. It's not that much and worth it especially now with things picking up.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Thanks for the insight Armando. And I hope you don't think I agree with Andrew b/c it's the opposite right now. I'll read the link you put down below now.
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Think Andrew is hedging. He says there "may be a thaw mid month", but then ends the post saying how cold and stormy the end of the month will be
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Fellas go and check Andrew's latest blog and tell me what you think. He mentions a WARM mid-January. He largley uses the MJO to conduct his forecast. Could he be wrong? Absolutley. But...he could also be right. (Which I don't think)
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
2.4 in stowe,pa. lol at 9:00 am i thought it was all done but it never stopped all day some times not showing on radar . at about 4:00pm the sky cleared some but still flurries kept falling. talk about ringing out all the moisture ! so it was a little surprise !!! brings my total this fall /winter to 7.2. not to bad but some higher elevations around here received a lot more
3 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
Medford, NJ about 1.5 inches.
Enjoyed snow - Check
Took kids sledding - Check
My son sticking his tongue on the metal play set (Christmas Story style) - Check. Explaining to Mom why he has a bloody mouth - Priceless! At least he was laughing about it. On to the next one.
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Fun day gang! Thanx for all the updates! Next week looks crazy hopefully it pans out and doesn't make us crazy tracking it! Sure is nice seeing white on the ground!
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
DC hit the bullseye! Yesterday they were calling for 1-2, but we ended up getting 4-6! The only downside is morning commute was an absolute mess because the schools didnt even get a delay. But all in all, i'm thrilled we get a good batch of snow on the ground!
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I was surprised how well it stayed together as well! Had some real strong patches of snow stall over my area as well.
3 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Agreed arman, good start to the season! Here in haddon heights, nj- I got about an inch an a half, close to 2 inches! Did great with this storm. Better then I expected! Can't wait till next weeks possible big storm. Over 6 inches seems likely!
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Talk about an interesting run of the EURO. Check that out, days and days and light wintry precip, snowmap has 12+ for most of us, and has another coastal forming off the carolina coast at the end of the run which would fit my timeframe I called for a MECS.
3 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
@Armando -- Great job covering this storm as well as the evolving (and complicated) pattern change. Continue to learn a ton from yourself and Nick among others. Looking forward to the rest of the winter storm threats!

Here in Chalfont (Central Bucks County PA) we have between 1.5'' to 2'', light snowfall continues. Nice to get things going again!
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Thanks weatherman and Snow1Md.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Great first storm of the season IMO!
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
Nice pics Brandon, I can still see the grass poking through the snow here in south Jersey.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Outside my window!
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
The RADAR is really blowing up over Ocean county NJ at 1:51 PM, Looks like Ocean enhancement.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Outside my window!
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Snowing moderately again here in Essex MD. I think we'll get over 4" for certain! Yaay clipper!
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
2"in Ephrata 2" in Reading still snowing lightly.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Hey everyone got 2.5 inches so far in the Bronx . Still coming down definitely an over performer as the sound enhanced it!
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Nice pics Brandon5, Light snow again in Frederick,Md
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Right!!!
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Thanks to this heavy band I'm at about 3.80ish. It was like 3.20 so this is a nice band. By the looks of the radar it won't be moving anytime soon!
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Sorry it took me 20mins but I also took some video and cleaned off the car again. Am I able to post videos on here? If so can someone tell me how?
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Look at this pic of the snow falling right now at my house in Essex MD.
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Rob, Thank you for the welcoming and your info aswell Good stuff. As Armando said,NICE.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Yup just realized Snow1d that picked up in intensity. Awesomeness.
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Armando,Frederick,Md 3.5" just stopped snowing.You said last night to Brandon5 going south (Lifting)Good call. Thank you for that info also.
3 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
@Armando, this is Wasi, I have a question about the high snow ratios. I live north of IAD which reported 4.1 inches. So how much liquid was that equivalent to. Was it 15:1 ratio or was it more than that at temp. of 20F.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Armando I did on the other blog. With pictures.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Charles, did you not call for 40"+ this year? Exactly...
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Charles. No one here cares what you say or think.
3 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
Hey Armando, I cannot believe that I got more snow from this clipper for my area. This clipper over-performed for northern virginia/dc area. forecast called for 1-2 and I got 4 inches. I was a little surprised and I guess the NAM model did well on this clipper. It seems like everyone was caught off guard and schools were not delayed or canceled which I was very surprised. Local mets underestimated this clipper which busted the forecast.
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
1.5 in Ephrata pa (lancaster cty) still snowing!
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
Yes I agree, Rob! Last year it was cold half way through April, and people wanted to say winter was over on January 3rd...blows my mind!! I know this winter isn't like last winter, YET!! We still have plenty of winter for snow, and we will get it eventually! It's definitely good to see the snow again even if it's one or two inches. And Armando, you do a great job trying to explain everything in the comments on here I enjoy reading them and everyone else's! And yeah I saw that last night we just need everything to settle into place! We've got the cold air that we were missing for awhile now. And I try to read all the blogs when I can, i read that long range blog freeze made up though! It's amazing how much stuff you can learn from reading all the blogs on here, I'm still a rookie to weather compared to most of you guys/girls, but I'm trying to learn it lol I love the weather! All we need is Nor' Easter bomb to come smack all of us soon!!
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
Another Update for the next 4 hours….DC to NYC

www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/…
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
Nice to have you here Snow1Md. People come and go on the site. Bloggers do this for free so I can't thank them all enough for posting and adding so much knowledge.
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Ive been on hear for about 3yrs just learning and reading.All you guys do a great job.Nick,Armando,freeze,Liverpoolfcfan, and the reg ppl i missed.O and Charles.Charles may have a different take just hope all works out with you guys.About last night that high just sat over Hagerstown,Md till about 7am.Is a (high) dry air and wind?Frederick,Md 3.0"
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
Thanks Armando. The cold is now here so we'll try and get the moisture in the mix. The GFS and Euro are seeing the pattern in two diff ways right now but both finally see the trend to coastal moisture with the cold. This is a better sign than the last few weeks
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
SnowKat we'll get you out on time. The next storm is between the 13-15th
3 years ago
ezweather
ezweather
Heading down to Atlantic City. Some parts of the Expressway have snow sticking in some spots. Doesn't take much to slip around out there. Once the snow ends, conditions should improve as salting crews get things in order.
3 years ago
SnowKat
SnowKat
As I said on another blog, I leave for a cruise on January 16 so I fully expect that at any point between then and the 24th for there to be multiple snow chances. Just as long as I don't miss my flight though, I'm ok with it.
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
9:00 looks like just the opposite .braking apart it was snowing moderately . i'm on the berks montco line in stowe, pa. estimate about .08 so far still with lite snow and 16 degrees. depoint 12

radar.weather.gov/…
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
Trate is the moisture pump from the West Coast (Pineapple express from Hawaii) vs. the shots of cold air. The division from north vs south is creating all kinds of problems for the models to grab beyond 4 days. This is why when some say winter was over…I say this winter will be wild…up and down with a big storm lurking out there. That moisture flow will come and go and when it comes oh it will pop the east coast with a significant storm
3 years ago
Trate
Trate
I feel like last year the models were better at sniffing out longer range stuff. This year everybody says 5+ days and beyond is garbage. Do the satellites need new batteries or something? What gives?
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
yeah JROLL I laugh sometimes when some of our members on the site call winter off and it's Jan 6th. The models are not that good past 5 days this winter and we only get the NAO PNA AO two weeks out. Be safe and enjoy the fluffy fun snow.
3 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
Yes sir! We have a lot of time to look at it so hopefully everything can set up for our first good snow of the year! Love tracking the snow on here, keep it up Rob! The sites great!
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
JROLL I see that 14-16th storm too. The GFS vs Euro begins they have snow but the timing and placement are different. Nice to start looking at some snow again isn't it. Giddy up
3 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
Not trying to rush this storm but the 14th-16th is looking nice right now, still far out but it's a start of something lol
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
yeah the dew points are pretty low
3 years ago
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