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JAN 6 4:10pm Big Storm On The Horizon

Discussion started by TeleConnectSnow 3 years ago

Going to start off saying as myself and many others have tried to tell those guys that said winter was over, well its here and here to stay for the most part. Today was a treat to what is to come later this month and eventually in February. Locations throughout experienced 1-4" which was great to see and will be on the ground for days to come thanks to the arctic airmass dropping in.

Days ago I mentioned the timeframe from 16-21st, and the EURO has showed some amazing runs the past few. The control run is dropping feet of snow up and and down I-95. This will be a blog in progress, but folks get ready for some big time model runs coming up, they are going to be exciting to look and examine as weather lovers.

I want to post some images containing weatherbell products, but I am going to ask someone if I am allowed, cause they are going to help represent my thoughts. 

POST AWAY guys lets get this train rolling 

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Alicia979
Alicia979
I think we should we create a model thread tonight so there's one place we can all go to in order to discuss the various runs without having to jump from blog to blog lol
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Funny how the 12z Para GFS shows a bomb, then the 18z just came out and doesn't even have the system. Models will be models.
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Which model do you guys trust this far out? The CMC seems bullish with the ice threat but the Euro and GFS? Not as much.
3 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
Going back to the 12z gfs the trough for the storm on this run is neutral and the surface map has a decent snowstorm but if this the trough turns negative this storm could be a huge snowstorm along the I-95 corridor! Still a long ways out and many of model runs to go but this should be a fun storm to track if the storm still shows up on the models late this weekend/early next week.
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Forgive me, as I'm thinking it could be too far out, but I'm hearing rumblings of a possible ice storm on Monday? Any thoughts on that?
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Not for nothing - here is the next six hrs in the Pacific. Note that LP off Japan - it certainly could play into Thursday next week.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Guys - TWC will change their tune with every group of model runs. Don't get caught up in anything they put in their 10-day.
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
weather.com has 60% of rain on Monday (high of 35), Thursday rain/snow (3-5 inches) (high of 35). Interesting!

what location ? i get no mention of accumulation just says high of 34 -60% snow rain
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Jonathan123 - trying googling the city weather data.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
As we start to look through the various models for potential next week, there are some things to keep in mind - primarily if you are wondering why the CMC says that there is potential basically from Tuesday through Friday and the GFS has nothing, know that the GFS is famous for losing a storm 7 days out only to bring it back three runs later. Be patient as you are looking and hold off on "calls"

Remember they are just models and look for other indicators of potential such as AO, NAO, PNA and of course - pattern. At this point, the pattern has been for storms from the SW to bring the warm air with them and make rain events. But with all the cold we have this week, we will have to wait and watch to see if it holds better than it has in the past three weeks.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
So yeah, looking at the models for next week, from what I understood looking at tropical tidbits is, we have the potential for two pretty potent storms if these forecasts hold, looks to be Wednesday and Friday right?
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
DT is saying that there may be a possible snow and ice event in the beginning of next week as well (12-13). Next week could get a little crazy!
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
Looks like 1-3" worked out...now it was a range so I went with an exact number 2.3". It was good to see snow on to cold and next week's potential.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
WeatherWizard progressive or not it's cold and it's setting up for a rather cold and snowy winter. Blocking doesn't necessarily mean a good thing because it could really supress systems. Last year we had a progressive pattern but we got near record level snowfall up and down i95
3 years ago
WeatherWizard
WeatherWizard
As of today,still a progressive pattern in place until at least mid month. Greenland Blocking taking shape 1/17 here
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Hey hurricane_tracker13 it's nice to you see your back. We missed you here. Today was a nice treat got 2.5 inches was expecting an inch. Hopefully from now on we only see over performers the way we did today. I'm always happy to see when your excited about the upcoming weather since you're rather more realistic than the rest of us snow weenies. Euro had a great run today and it's looking likely we may get some overrunning snows followed by a coastal sometime next week. Talk to you guys later!
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
I love the snow spirit!
3 years ago
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