MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

1/16/15-1/23-15 MODEL THREAD

Discussion started by TeleConnectSnow 3 years ago

Got this idea from another website and seems like a GREAT idea.

With many upcoming storms, we all love model watching. Let's post all INFO regarding single models runs. Post which run you are talking about. If I can tonight, I will start with the 00z EURO and post away.

I will make a new thread every seven days for a new set of runs.

Anyone like the idea? I remember a couple years back we did something like this on LWB where we had threads to talk about model runs. Waking up and seeing the thread go from 5 replies to 90 replies, you knew that something big happened.

GUYS

PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND OR INTERACT WITH CHARLES DECHRISTOPHER ON HERE ANYMORE. LOOK RIGHT PAST HIS POST, HE IS RUINING THIS SITE ONCE AGAIN. LETS KEEP OUR TALK GOING AND LEAVE HIM OUT FOD GOOD. 

THANKS AND SORRY THIS IS WHAT IT HAS COME TOO

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snowstorm101
snowstorm101
And actually this is for Sat, so we are 5 days away. Euro, as Armando said, has made a huge improvement aloft and trended west, along with other models.
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Some people say NAVGEM is usually very progressive, so when it shows something like this, other models could trend west towards it.
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Here Jonathan I attached it. It now shows this for a second run in a row!
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Armando, do you think this storm for the weekend is actually possible to become a major snowstorm/blizzard? I hope so! I know it's early and we have the Wednesday storm, but you said the models would catch on to the whole idea for this weekend this week, and seems like they are starting too. I laughed at the NAVGEM when it showed a monster coastal snowstorm today, but now I am starting to get weary of it actually coming to fruition. All models did trend west today. Do you see the Wednesday storm becoming a 50/50 low to act as a block for the Friday-Sunday storm?
3 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
Armando, did you ever check NAVGEM because I saw that it was the first model to catch on that big storm for this weekend and has it much closer to the coast. So now Euro also shifted west so that's a big step in the right direction. I have also said to wait till monday after all the models flopping this past weekend. Can you show us the Euro run?
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Are you talking about the Euro for the latter portion of this week Armando?
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Armando, any chance this comes south enough to affect us here in Baltimore?
3 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
The cmc is about the same as the GFS with 1-4 inches. Big improvement with the storm still out to sea but the cmc has it just off the North Carolina coast at 984mb!
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
nws hwo this was from 4:13 am this am

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER COULD BRING AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED. THE GREATER IMPACT IS LEANING TOWARD THE EVENING COMMUTE
ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND INFORMATION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
gfs 12 z says about 2-4 i heard the euro was a little more aggressive with the snow totals not sure though
204.2.104.196/gfs/…
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
03z Srefs pretty amped up probably same as 21z hopefully these short range models could nail this clipper could turn out to be a decent 2-4/3-6" event
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Ok guys I see we have potential of a very small to small event on Wednesday- Thursday . I don't wanna overlook overnight, I'm in lower montco and it is 31 with a predicted low of 28. I can only speak of what I can see, my driveway has crystals forming on it and road seemed to look the same. I'm not sure if it is from the re freezing or the slight fog and any droplets from that in the air. Just watch you step in the morning and take it slow.
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
I just drove to Wawa in Gloucester Township, and all roads are very icy.
3 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Armando that time frame from 26 to 28 looks really good but gfs has the storm offshore
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Yea I think philly will still pick up a general 1 to 3 at least for the clipper.
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Cmc looks dry. Doesn't bring much precip in at all for the clipper Wednesday
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Is the big storm next weekend still on th table?
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Hydro-Meteorological Prediction Center. Good stuff.lots of info.I was on here yesterday and a farmer walked by me and looked at my laptop and asked if the site was about weather.We started talking and he asked me if u guys knew of any storms,snow coming.I said yes.A couple of chance's/He said he's been farming for 60yrs and can tell if there's going to be snow before local weather by how his cows act.Says most of the time its correct even weeks out.Anyway,he says he feels like the next two weeks will be more then just a little snow fall.He's 82 and knows nothing about weather.
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Like the now casting.Looking at the current surface maps.Looking at isobars,winds,dew points,what temps are trying to do,where the highs and Lows are.Trying to see where a storm is going.The rest is much more complicated.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Is there anyway we can have charles blocked?
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Nick thanks about info on thickness chart.... Also do you see fog being issue tonight and any big issues on the so-called "re-freezing"
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Ok Charlie, you go from saying Wednesday will be all rain to it will be torched this week and now next weekend storm will go out to sea and 60's by the 3rd..... Anything else before it's bedtime for you!!
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Nick,Nice.Tks.Know you dont have much time on here to teach but reading and u posting things like that is great.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Yea I think they will to Euro. Sadly...
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
That doesn't deserve to be called a playoff game...terrible showing colts.
3 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
The AFC Championship was last week....
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Pats will beat Seahawks
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
Snow1Md
Snow1Md
Guys for weeks everyone has been saying not to talk with him but 95% of u guys keep doing it.I feel everyone give him a chance but clearly thats not what he wants.So if he likes football,ETC.He should know the term(Game over).. SO ,guys whats up with this weeks weather in Frederick,Md.Your thoughts.Weather can be very differant from DC to Frederick,Md..Nick thanks. Lets do this cuz,Yes im here to learn and like hearing what you guys have to say.Thanks
3 years ago
Robwinter1966
Robwinter1966
OK thanks for the explanation Armando,Keep up the great work guy's. .I continue to learn on here..despite how insane it gets at times..
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Nam update?
3 years ago
Robwinter1966
Robwinter1966
So Armando, does the clipper on Wednesday being stronger and blowing up along the coast slow everything down even more and if it's just a small system will it cause everything to continue progressive?
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhillyWeather13
PhillyWeather13
00z NAM has initialized
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
RobWinter just did the same thing, after I asked non stop even had it in the main thread above. I can't take it anymore, time to go on a new site.
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
I'm officially done, I asked to stop engaging and it continues. Goodbye im done with this
3 years ago
Robwinter1966
Robwinter1966
Lol I can't no more. ..I'll be back Monday night. Armando has been saying it for days now anyway ..let's wait for Monday after this system. I don't know why anyone would get mad at this guy saying no snow. .Sum on here live and die by every model run. I gave it til after this system to start trusting the models and maybe even Monday is cutting it close. ..nfl fixed?? Lol...ok..
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
OMG for the last time stop engaging with him Jonathan and everyone else. LET IT GO, I'm about to leave this is horrible. stop talking with him
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
EURO,
Nice way to directly steal word for word from a poster on americanwx.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
SREF has the low moving near the bm. Nice hit.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
SREFs looking amped this run. Next up 00z NAM.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
STOP RESPONDING TO HIM OR HAVING HIS NAME IN YOUR COMMENT. HE WILL POST AND POST AWAY, WHO CARES, IT MAKES IT WORSE WHEN YOU COMMENT. SO PLEASE STOP IT
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
trust me guys, he doesn't have a life in or out of school. trust me I know from someone
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
Once again Charles bashing continues. Keep going Charles because no one will respond. Just like to model hug each run of the GFS.
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan1
PhilsPhan1
Removed
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
I thought that map looked a little light.
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Philsfan99 is not charles. Charles is philsfan1.
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
NAM looks good at the end of the run, looks like 4-8 inches of snow region wide.
3 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
Am I reading this right?
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Do you like this website philsphan99?
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Charles who? I don't see anyone bashing!! I think you guys should see the samething. If you don't respond and choice to ignore, he will eventually slow or stop!!
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Yeah @LoveDelawareSnow, and he bashes every one's forecasts, while not even making his own. When he does make "forecasts" they aren't right either.
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Charles clearly has no life between trolling this website and trolling Mike Masco's Facebook page...
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I can't take Charles OMG. Someone get rid of the moron already. And he's probably going to reply to this comment saying something mean and annoying again...I really shouldn't post about him and just ignore him, but I can't help it, he's like a mosquito.
3 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
Weds clipper still looks like 1-3 with these cold ratios....
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
hey guys... kind of upset that the models have backed off on the clipper here for N NJ. Pretty much nothing up here. Do you guys think that it could shift north to bring us some snow? It's 3 days out so it could but I like hearing Nick and Armando's answers...they are always informative and insightful.
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@armando @nick... What do you guys think of the models backing off the mid week clipper it looks horrible compared to last nights runs, also what do you think about meek weekend storm ??
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Good job nick, it sounds like you learned something from this one.. He is not apologizing for what happen outside but that he saw red flags and didn't alert people that the potential was there... I think it's semi unheard of that a weather person says they didn't do a good job but you often hear "it happen as I said or I nailed it."... Nick very respectful!!
Nick do you think any chances of the backend snow with this one?
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Well said, liverpool.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Nick, I am sorry, but I think its ridiculous that you are apologizing. You are not God, you can't predict weather, and for whoever comes to this website expecting just that has a lot to learn. This site has a lot of great info, but nothing is written stone when it comes to weather. You could have warned people about ice this morning, and for all we know it could have stayed plain rain, then everyone would have been pissed at you for hyping a storm. Stick to what you do Nick and don't apologize to anyone.
3 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
Here is some great info from Bobby at EPAWA for the next 2 weeks!!! 17 min but worth listening.
epawaweather.com/weather-weeklies/
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Love it's ok, my bad, I said I had nothing good to say to you... I let it slip out in a later response.. Sorry!!
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
I was being matter of fact in my first response. Anyone who does not like something is free to stop using a product and find one they like better! I wasn't rude nor did I say his opinion was wrong. He was the one who wrote a condescending response and said I was clueless when he has NO IDEA who I am or what I do for a living. I never pretended to know what the models say or that I know what I am talking about on here. I am here to learn like everyone else. I apologize for the clown comment but I don't think I am the immature one here.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Nick, I did hear a few people say with is current storm that it might have some back end snow... Do you think that is a possible solution or not anymore?
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Nick, I tell you wait... I respect you more now then I did before... To come out publicly and say you really don't think you did a good job with this one at all... I'm standing and clapping for you!! Never did I hear you blame it on the models... I'm serious, I respect you more now!!
3 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
LoveDelawareSnow... he is venting his frustration and is allowed. Name calling is immature.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Clown?? Why don't you go look at the models and tell me what it might do in 30 days.
3 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
This site is more a place for weather hobbyists to discuss the weather... whatever that should be. I have been a viewer of this site for 6 years and know that there are all different forecast blogs depending on who is writing it. In all seriousness...Appreciate Armando, freeze , wild and Nick but Robs blogs are the main blogs I take seriously but the past year he SUCKS at putting them up in advance and timely. They also aren't as educational as they used to be when he does blog. Sorry for the vent!!!! REALLY miss the old days of LWB.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Nick I think that is were I'm having the problem, last week I was being warned about the possible 1/4" of ice that to me the temps were saying none to little freezing rain.... Last night the temps were dropping and already below freezing and I didn't see anyone mentioning or talking about...I don't understand weather and don't claim to know much, that is why I come on here... I won't lie you guys lose me when you guys get deep into picki apart a model...
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Agreed, let's move on. Not wasting my time arguing with that clown.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
So when I do this I have people to not use this as a weather forecast site and use comment sense or if I don't like this site because it is not telling me correct weather, then go find a different site( that one made me laugh, clueless)...
3 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Hahaha classic response. All I needed to see. Have a nice day.
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Love, whatever.. I have nothing to say to your comments.. Skater, when you have almost everyone on here saying the local mets are a conservative bunch of idiots and don't listen or pay any attention to them.. So I try not to and check in to this site daily to get my weather!!
3 years ago

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