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JAN 19 2:23pm MODEL THREAD 1/19/2015

Discussion started by TeleConnectSnow 3 years ago

After yesterday I needed a break from all the crap going on in that blog that made it unreadable. 

ANYWAYS

Models are shifting back and forth with the big dog storm this upcoming week. It's only 4-5 days out, so not pure fantasy anymore. I want to start a new thread to talk about this threat and to post model talk strictly in this thread as I will lock the other one. 

 

I will discuss the EURO CONTROL/EURO ENSEMBLES when they come out guys.

POST AWAY

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Snowhope
Snowhope
Ballz97fm i was just saying it shows 4-8" cause he said he shows all rain. But honestly i wouldn't look at the temperatures yet. That is what i meant to say
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
Ollie Williams is back, and he says enjoy your clipper because this weekend...
3 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Where is the cold air gonna come from I don't see a high to the north this will be rain after all this we get rain story of our winter this year lol
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Mustufa euro gives 4-8 dont look at temps yet
3 years ago
Robwinter1966
Robwinter1966
Wasn't the storm tomorrow suppose to bring down the colder air and setup a 50/50 low? We're still hearing about no cold air when the cold was getting ready to come down this week? Ughh...always a technicality when it comes to snowstorms in the i95 nowadays. .
3 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
Euro now shows a rainstorm. But I'm not buying it right now because it can dynamically get colder if there is an arctic H to the north or otherwise it could be rain instead of snow.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Ah HA! So a negative crash in the SOI also correlates to a decrease in those pesky trade winds we have been dealing with too - yes?
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Hey all - I started a new blog to provide more analysis and pics so that all can look and learn as we track what hopefully will be what we've been patiently waiting for this winter....
3 years ago
Trate
Trate
I've heard you guys talk about lows over Japan and what happens here about 10 days later. Can that be correlated to this weekend event? If not that's fine, just hope we get blasted anyways. Also, nice to see Bernie jumping on board so early in the game. I never took those guys to go out on a limb with their forecast past 2 days. seems like they are " locking in" just like the models! Feel like there's starting to be a lot of agreement here amongst many outlets/blogs/etc.
3 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
@Armando
And also did you see JB mention that the SOI values crash at -41. He said that is the strongest negative crash since 2009-2010 winter. I think that indicates for stronger el nino and may have a connection to this weekend winter storm because it crashed this low since yesterday.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Does anyone hear that? Maybe we will see a train coming 'round the mountain soon?

An oakland2323 OAKTRAIN?
3 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
@EricWeather The cold not being in place is an slight concern. However, Bernie just posted a video and he makes two major comments. First, he likes that the trough it setting up near the "midwest" region, and he believes that the storm will shift further west than the models currently show. Secondly, he notes that although the cold air is not in place, he believes that, in accordance with the Euro model, the storm will remain strong and generate its own cold air. We'll have to keep an eye on it and see if/when the storm will strengthen and if the track does start to trend West.
3 years ago
Ericweather123
Ericweather123
Hey everyone.
The only thing I see is that the temperatures might be to warm for a significant storm. I'm seeing highs 34-38 on Saturday for the Philly area. What's everyone's opinion on that?
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
The upper levels are being handled better, and the northern stream backs off to allow better support for the ridge to get amped, the trough to dig, finally tap the gulf and has good support on development track. We need the clipper to move through, which should be a nice little warm up and place some snowcover on the ground - which is good.

And then there is the weekend factor. No physics there, but a phenomenon with NE snowstorms.

Finally getting interesting, odds definitely have gone up, but more adjustments are sure to happen.
3 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
GFS run shows about 2-4 mm/hr of percipitable equivalent. The Low still isn't as low as the Euro however. Lets hope the GFS trends towards the Euro with the strength of that low.
*Credit to EPAWx for the post of this GFS run screenshot.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
I won't really get on board until Thursday 12z. Need tomorrow to get past, need consistent alignment between the models for 6 runs and then some luck on top of that.

As always though, it is fun to track and see how things come together or fall apart. I'm glad we have a baby monster to cuddle for now.
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Good trends but still awhile out cannot be sure with these models but yeah the euro wants a huge storm at 964 mb atleast the ensemble. while gfs has it at 980 farther off the coast but still trends are good
3 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Guys im liking the trends here gfs jus took a big step
3 years ago
Hanksroot
Hanksroot
Bastardi said this earlier...before latest gfs

The close up of the ECWMF control at 120 hours has a 962 mb low ese of ACY. As I was driving Garrett to school this morning, he had the map up on his I-phone blown up and I kept saying.. are you sure.. Then I saw it
Lets put that in perspective. Irene at ACY was 962 mb. The March Superstorm was about 962. That storm, if correct, would shut the I-95 corridor.. The ECMWF is not at all shy about it. The GFS still is
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
New 12z gfs is a hit for the weekend
3 years ago
Neversnowsinpa
Neversnowsinpa
Hey all. Great coverage as always guys.

I was thinking about these models and agreement or lack there of. I seem to remember back in, I want to say 96, hearing on the radio about that storm coming like 4-5 days out and they nailed it. Why is it seemingly more difficult now to get an accurate idea a few days out? Too much information being injected into the models?

Just wondering.

Keep up the fantastic work people!
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
thank you nick . cool i'm pulling for the euro to get locked in . LOL
3 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Thanks armando this is very good signs the trend is north
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
@armando yes we can't give in yet. At this point I and expecting anything from a tornado to rain to a blizzard. Lol craxy winter
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
"GFS 6z down below, has precip reaching Philly"
nick how many miles nw do we need it to track for Reading to get it good or jackpot ?
3 years ago
needmoresnow7
needmoresnow7
@armando wow a 967 low? Just 98 lower and we can break the world record
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Ok thanks guys just making sure
3 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Armando what did the euro show for nyc?
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Temperatures look borderline but its too early
3 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
@Armando..wish it still shows this on Friday...lol
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
Nick is this for the weekend storm or tomorrow?
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
So, in our fantasy solution, what would a storm like that produce? Would it be area wide or certain areas to be effected? Great job Nick/Armando...
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
ok guys, just kidding..... i would say this weekends storm has no chance of being a lake cutter! i think we can rule that out..
3 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
12z Nam looks a little more juiced up
3 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
guys, i just heard from a very reliable source.. this weekend is a lake cutter1
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
don't you go getting me excited Armando!!
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Regarding this weekend event i probably will not call anything until a day before because if the models cannot handle a clipper they cannot handle the coastal most likely still all over the place for this weekend as of now. The 00z euro is right off the coast. The 06z gfs hits us aswell but it is an off run. Cmc still is trending Northwest.
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Still the same call for 1-3 area across philly region. With less the further southeast you head imo right now.
3 years ago
Legs
Legs
Keep thinking its got to break in our favor one of these times...here's to hoping this week is the turn-a-round!!
3 years ago
Shugar54
Shugar54
I almost wish this happened closer to Sat. so it does'nt have time to screw with us! Great Run stay that way!!!!
3 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
Just a general rule of thumb, never look at storm #2 till storm #1 pulls away.
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Get ready!
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Euro has a 974mlb bomb at the bm or just west of it great run
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Boom!
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
DT says....

0z TUEASDAY EURO 96 HRS IS GETTING TO EXPLODE

this lOW looks BIGGER and More massive and has tons more precip with it!
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
That's a good thing right euro dom
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Looks like EURO isn't going to leave energy behind once again on the 00z run for the weekend event.
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Euro is a nice hit for DC for the clipper Wednesday. Philly doesnt get much as it goes south.
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
It's Euro time!
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@joe agreed plenty of time I'm very excited to see the euro
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Almost euro time
3 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Armando, I'm ready! All aboard! Where's the Oak train!?!?!
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@armando I compared the cmc at 12z and now at 0z big jump not to far from a bm track precip actually almost grazes eastern LI and grazes cape cod
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando trends like you always say ,also once this clipper passes models will get a better handle on the weekend storm for better or worse
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Every once in a while one of these lesser models verifys it happened with a storm a few years back it might have been the cras or jma to show the storm the the big models got into the game late hey you never know
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Also, the cold next week is looking absolutely brutal. Probably the worst we've seen this season
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@armando this is our passion we learn we help each other out even if the weekend storm misses us we track storms and figure out why or why not they come to fruition I still think we will see other chances last week of jan into February and if not you can't will every battle I enjoy learning from you this can be a great site if we keep the trolls out keep up the good job pal
3 years ago
Robwinter1966
Robwinter1966
You got my vote for moderator Armando. ..geez it has to be 10 times better than what it was! And like I said...I'll start paying attention to the models now...better than 7days ago!
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Gfs looks alittle better for the weekend storm looks more northwest or 12z baby steps
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@armando to you agree with that assessment ??
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
I can see this clipper producing from cnj to philly a nice 2-4 inch event not to much further north you go Nyc and nnj like a coating to an inch north of Trenton may be in the screw zone
3 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
The GFS has been the most consistent model for this clipper giving a region wide 1-4 inches on every run today so I would go with the GFS solution for now.
3 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
forgot...did anyone else see that Knaylz is no longer the website admin for LWB? they must have broken up, pretty sure from FB it was Robs girlfriend
3 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
stop model hugging!!!! good read for anyone interested:
www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/…
3 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Thanx for all the updates guys, haven't commented for awhile! Think I'm going to change my user name to " NO MODEL HUGGING ALLOWED" chaos breaks loose every time we get an unfavorable run! Can't wait for tomorrow's runs- more insanity looming- yippee! At least there are prospects out there! Something will pan out soon! BELIEVE!!!
3 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
Realize you guys are working off the latest run, I get it. But to take one run of the NAM as gospel, can't do it. If its still showing the same at 12z tomorrow.... okay. I personally don't think ground temps will be much of an issue by 5 pm Wednesday afternoon. Tuesday night lows in the 20's. Highs Wednesday low to maybe mid thirties toward the jersey coast and then falling to the low to mid twenties Wednesday night. Stickage = No problem. Can't really worry to much about the weekend till we get past midweek. That's not to say I don't enjoy looking at all the possibilities on the table. 4 am comes quick, I'll enjoy reading all your guys analysis tomorrow. Good night.
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Well a lot of this weekends storm has to do with this clipper so we better hope it stays strong
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Years back we used to get nice 2-4/3-6 " events now they seem so unlikely either is a 12+ or 1-2" events no in between I don't get it
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
If gfs comes in the same way making sure it was not an off run i might lower my totals to a coating-1" tbh we are too close to the event. However, i would like to look at the wrf when it gets into range
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Weekend storm will bust also either ots or it will rain scary we can't catch a break so if I'm coming off negative I'm just so frustrated and want some snow
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Clipper trending downward story of our winter , yesterday everybody was talking how much potential it had to blow up along the coast it's just not our year it's sad
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Lets just put it this way. The latest 00z NAM model run showed a much less potent clipper giving a coating to philly southeast. And the mean of the 21z SREF plume is .44" of snow
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Jonathan he is talking about an old one. And it shows .44" of snow
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
21z sref total snowfall plumes show .44" for philly as a mean i don't see the 2.5" idk if that was for the earlier run. Snowfall seems to be trending down with this clipper.
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
NAM in with nothing for philly i think maybe a few flurries it seems at least what im looking at
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Nam not impressive as of hour 45
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Nam is rolling in now
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando still don't understand what your saying ? Nyc has a better chance at higher accumulations
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Ok thanks nick
3 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
epawa 1st call i'm right on the line of 1-2 & 2-3
epawaweather.com/…
3 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
SREFS, come in way less impressive for the clipper beginning to think we won't see more than 1-2 " widespread
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Don't ground temps look a tad warm for accumulating snow for the weekend?
3 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
With the clipper coming in the afternoon and lasting into the evening ratios probably start at 8 or 10 to one. My guess is by late afternoon the temp drops pretty quick, maybe 5 degrees or more in a very short time. This should bump ratios up to 12 maybe 15 to one or a touch higher. Could really help maximize totals Wednesday evening. Defiantly hoping for a little help from the Atlantic which the models seem to be showing to a small degree. Looks like perfect timing for the evening rush hour.
3 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
@jonathan. Clippers are tough to nail down Shortrange models will do a better job tomorrow night
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Jon123...yeah, you paid attention to the TWC, lol. I thought Armando told you not to look at that sight, they are biased towards the GFS only I believe.
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
FreezeMizer….thanks for going into even deeper detail. This is why I love LWB, so much knowledge here, love you guys, lol
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Not going to talk about that period yet, no point. 2 storms to talk about first
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
some of the gfs ensembles are HECS
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
navgem 18z
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
LPfcfan: Great, great question. Millibars measures the pressure of the atmosphere. Once you measure above or below the "average" you have a H or a L. Below is a great example. Remember - most of the weather models of today were born in providing aviation the ability to navigate flying in the upper levels. The average is 1013.25mb. Below is from the U of Illinois.

"As an example, consider a "unit area" of 1 square inch. At sea level, the weight of the air above this unit area would (on average) weigh 14.7 pounds! That means pressure applied by this air on the unit area would be 14.7 pounds per square inch. Meteorologists use a metric unit for pressure called a millibar and the average pressure at sea level is 1013.25 millibars."
3 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
boy did the GEFS shift west
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Armando, what is your gut feeling on the weekend storm? I know it's early and no calls can be made, but I just want to know what your gut feeling or what your leaning towards is. Also, for the clipper, for NW NJ, NWS has 3-4 inches up here. Can you see that happening?
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
also, Armando, what timeframe are we looking at for the sampling of the weekend storm? when do all these pieces come into play? after the clipper?
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
thank you for the answer Armando
3 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Even the Euro ensembles are beginning to trend west for the weekend storm. Hopefullywe can just get it a bit closer and a little further north and we can have a big storm on our hands!
3 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
this might be a dumb question and I am not even sure how to quite phrase it, but at what MB does a system become a storm? It sounds stupid even saying it and I am not sure if it makes sense, but what MB does a Low Pressure system need to have to classify it an actual low pressure? make sense to anyone? lol
3 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
Not to jump ahead but you can see fun times ahead going into feb with storm chances....on a lot of models will see how it plays out ...
3 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
I might get that cause winter might be closing by then
3 years ago
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