Hey gang, I thought it was time to start a new thread with pics and detailed analysis. Living via the comments can get tough especially when we have so much excitement - with good reason.
I'll add to this as the 12Zs progress, and if any of them decide to ruin our parade right now - i will kick the data center doors open and unplug them! (I can also add pics from others if you upload to the server and let me know the name of the file)
1-20-15 12Z Surface Maps Hr 108:
There are things to look at in each and none have that perfect set up yet. But right now that isn't important. What is important is they're all showing the potential. Adjustments will be key.
500mb Hr90 analysis.
For GEFS, GFS and CMC, there are differences at hr 90 (96 for Euro) in the 500mb level. The GFS and Euro play a more neutral (headed to neg) trough at that time, as well as is more passive with the northern stream, which allows more of the coastal track.
At this point the focus should remain on the upper levels, the interaction of the northern stream, the placement and dig of the trough, etc.. This is a nail biter!!!
12Z 500Mb Comparison: GFG vs CMC
1. The northernstream is flatter in thE GFS and hence less impactful on nudging it OTS.
2. Another part of the northern stream is more north and less amped in the GFS versus the CMC.
3. The eastern part of the ridge is more amped int he GFS versus the CMC.
4. The Vort is more amped and further east in teh GFS versus the CMC.
These differences may seem small, but they're not in terms of the solution each model portrayed in the 12 Z run.
Result: CMC nudges it out, and GFS says up the coast. model bias? maybe some - but that's our job to interpret and determine what makes sense based on all the factors involved.