MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Could it be?? Is this for real? Weekend Monster?!?!?

Discussion started by FreezeMizer 2 years ago

Hey gang, I thought it was time to start a new thread with pics and detailed analysis.  Living via the comments can get tough especially when we have so much excitement - with good reason.

 

I'll add to this as the 12Zs progress, and if any of them decide to ruin our parade right now - i will kick the data center doors open and unplug them!  (I can also add pics from others if you upload to the server and let me know the name of the file)

 

1-20-15 12Z Surface Maps Hr 108:

 

12Z Surface low

There are things to look at in each and none have that perfect set up yet.  But right now that isn't important.  What is important is they're all showing the potential.  Adjustments will be key.

 

500mb Hr90 analysis.

500mb hr 90 v2

For GEFS, GFS and CMC, there are differences at hr 90 (96 for Euro) in the 500mb level.  The GFS and Euro play a more neutral (headed to neg) trough at that time, as well as is more passive with the northern stream, which allows more of the coastal track.

 

At this point the focus should remain on the upper levels, the interaction of the northern stream, the placement and dig of the trough, etc..  This is a nail biter!!!

 

12Z 500Mb Comparison: GFG vs CMC

 500 comparison GFG-CMC

1.  The northernstream is flatter in thE GFS and hence less impactful on nudging it OTS.

2.  Another part of the northern stream is more north and less amped in the GFS versus the CMC.

3.  The eastern part of the ridge is more amped int he GFS versus the CMC.

4.  The Vort is more amped and further east in teh GFS versus the CMC.

These differences may seem small, but they're not in terms of the solution each model portrayed in the 12 Z run.

Result:  CMC nudges it out, and GFS says up the coast.  model bias?  maybe some - but that's our job to interpret and determine what makes sense based on all the factors involved.

 

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FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
started new blog for Wednesday analysis. Blogs used to go to the top of the list after each update - not any longer, so I'll work with that limitation.

www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/…
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
Freeze i think you are starting to feel it....lol
Great info ...looking forward to your updates..
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
I have a blog for the nowcast of the clipper. latest info for that system is there.

I'll update this blog with the 00Z runs for the weekend. I know there is a model discussion thread - which makes sense as that should look at frame by frame as it happens, etc. Will use this one to bring it together with summaries and discussion.

let me know if that works.
2 years ago
weatherwatcher
weatherwatcher
just wondering, where is this clipper projected to end up at and what effect would it have on the weekend storm if it did in fact end up where the models are projecting it to go
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@ nick no buddy I'm sorry I know that you and I live east of 95 I'm just so frustrated with ths winter even when we get a track at the bm there's no fresh cold air I'm sorry if I came off like that bud hoping for the best
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@nick was that directed towards me your comment I was just stating my opinion
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Can I create a model thread for tonight's model runs?
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Agreed nick.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I agree Nick...
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
lol bernie wants comments on his new suit LOL
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I am in NW NJ, and Jsnow the threat map included 95 AND coastal areas for accumulating snows. Obviously that's a preliminary map, but everyone has a nice shot a some accumulating snow at the least. He said NYC is on the fence, but honestly highly doubt you see all rain, prob some mixing/rain to start, then going over to heavy wet snows.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Majority of us live i95 east so watching that video is not to encouraging for snow all the major cities are on the fence so right now without that high to the north not really excited about this storm now that's just my opinion
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Cipper tomorrow (could suprise), storm friday (as of now, looks like rain to heavy snow but nothing set in stone) and then a threat tuesday with even more cold for that storm.

So miss me with that "Cancel winter!!" ish
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Why does everyone treat Steve D like hes right all the time? And the euro was not all rain
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Jonathan, think before you post really. Starting to get on my nerves also.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Hey rob ill take anything lol
2 years ago
robweather
robweather
Nice job on the blog Freeze. Oh it's for real so far. The models may finally be onto something. THIS COULD BE A 4-8" EVENT IN THE MAKING. I'll have a blog later
2 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
Agree Nick. Many of our big snows on I-95 frequently start as light/moderate rain (frequently the BUST crowd comes out) then the quick transition to heavy, wet snow then more powdery flakes has the low deepens off NJ/DE coast causing temps to plunge (and subsequent snow ratios to increase)
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Does anyone know how to view northeast on weather bell instead of eastern us
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
18z GFS looks the same for the most part, maybe a hair colder.
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Also , this winter has been chronicled with models over estimating the warmth
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Mike Masco was saying not to lay attention to the 540 line until thursday night runs. It's way too far out to be judging the rain snow line.

Also, the storm may deep enough to the point where you get enough lift and it creates it's own cold air
2 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
2 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
Here's my prediction, if clipper snow is still around this weekend, storm should be mostly snow, if not, look for mostly rain, it's really that simple.
2 years ago
patbrown1117
patbrown1117
Cautiously optimistic for this significant weekend threat, but really can't get crazy excited until this clipper clears the area tomorrow, becomes a strong low pressure Thursday just to the east of the Gulf of Maine, then at that time, the models will have most of the players on the field for me to go All-In or Out on a snowy solution for I-95. Regardless, we are due for a Nor'easter with a good punch of snow!
2 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
2 years ago
John
John
FYI Guys thickness has been an issue this winter with most storms when they hit becoming wet versus white. So I would pay attention to the mid levels..
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Everyone please calm down. Cannot call either yet it is too early. TCS you will always have people saying all rain on this site it is fine just ignore their posts
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Don't see any changes so far.
2 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
18z GFS coming out folks, stay tuned.
2 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
RESIST IT GUYS OR I AM LOCKING THIS THREAD
2 years ago
PhilsPhan99
PhilsPhan99
Removed
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
was on epawa facebook page they're saying latest euro agrees with the gfs . and now the euro ensembles are even more impressed for a bigger storm nw of the operational . bring it !
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Nothing is locked in by any means yet. If you look above at the 12Z runs, there are differences, and challenges that have to be figured out with the runs that look favorable.

I personally hate that L up north versus a nice H over Quebec or a ridged H from the plains east. So we're not working with perfect players or placement. Yet still it's a decent shot that we haven't seen yet.

The clipper tomorrow needs to go through, clear and take it's route.

Right now based on GFS only the timing says Saturday afternoon, so we're 3.5 days out. Normally we'd be locking in, but this winter, it feels like we're 7-10 days out. arrrrggghhhh!!!!!

Let's look at the variables as they come in. I'll keep updating so all can see the bigger points we all talk about in the comments.
2 years ago
John
John
Yes we have a real storm threat to track, but lets keep our heads gentlemen.
2 years ago
John
John
Well I just seen Both 12z GFS, and Euro and when both are in strong agreement with the weekend watch out !!!. These models are calibrated to pick up on high impact events early. The 540 line does come over NYC and Phila at 700 mb thick as per Euro. GFS is further out off the coast less snow but mainly snow. The Euro is more snow but more mixing, also more bullish. It seems like both GFS, EURO Numerical models have a higher degree of percentage for phasing than track at this time. Model spread for track is higher.
2 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
That was Steve D proclaiming rain not me! I think we all go to snow by 2nd half of storm no matter how close it comes to coast!
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
sorry ballz, your right man.
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Oh my God, I can't take this. Who the hell said this was going to be all rain. You can't take precip types serious of an ensemble run. Jesus, some of you people need a reality check.
2 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Yesterday Steve D swore this storm wasn't coming north in fact exact words were "models playing cruel trick on snow lovers" now it's gonna be all rain! Another spout at the mouth too soon!!!
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs ... Thank you
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Jsnow, based off the Euro yes. And definitely east of the major cities.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
As it stands now would the major city's have a problem with mix or rain ?
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
like central chester county in pa
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs where are u located ?
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
Side note 18z Nam came in juicy for tomorrow....
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
I live on the border of queens/ nassau in ny , when you say coast are you talking jersey shore and eastern LI or all the way to the major city's as far as rain/ mix to snow ?
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Ensembles came way NW. Coastal and LI would have problems. so would I-95 east, but everyone else would do good. Jsnow, just cause it looks like you would get rain, you're making it sound like everyone is getting rain.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando where do you live ?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
1 million percent this storm is gonna hit because it's rain long dc to Bos rain storm
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
I95 east rain ? West of i95 snow ? Elaborate
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs , when you say coastal sections where exactly are you talking , jersey shore , eastern LI ? Where exactly
2 years ago
nyc2002
nyc2002
Steve D is calling for a rainstorm due to no blocking. I think we might be getting ahead of ourselves here.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Jsnow...this storm is forecasted to be very strong in MB on the models and taking a track on the models near or over BM (like Euro), when it is sub 990 or especially 980, it generates it's own cold air. The storm on some Euro ensembles is shown to be in the 960s or 970s!
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Coastal sections in my opinion wouldn't look good, but they are always on the edge. So saying we're tracking a major rainstorm because of the coastal sections is stupid as the rest of us would do great.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
I got a question with No real cold high where is the cold air gonna come from ? Where basically tracking a major rainstorm for the coastal sections lol
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
Victor
Victor
I'll keep an eye open for a possible good storm.
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Thanks Freeze ~ Great work!
2 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
Hey FreezeMizer. Nice blog-in-motion idea.
2 years ago
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