MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

JAN 20 7:02pm 00z Model Discussion "Trio Of Threats"

Discussion started by TeleConnectSnow 2 years ago

Well guys, its the night we have been waiting all year for, storm is officially under 100 hours, no more fantasy range and crap talk. We are looking at a legit storm threat that has potential to produce signifcant snow around here and other locations. I have been making these type of threads for the past couple of nights and it has worked out GREAT with solid analysis by many. We have the random troll, but who cares, let him post away, don't both responding to him, no point as it will make it worse.

Anyways

Lets get it going for 00z tonight. KEEP IT CLEAN and lets get to it boys!

 

You need to be a member of this group before you can participate in this blog.
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
LOCKING THIS UP MOVE TO MY NEW THREAD
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
Ahh, I gotcha. I just reread it and saw that the lack of the perfect setup could cause it to become a rain event. That wouldn't be ideal, and definitely wouldn't help to much with monday/tuesday.
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
Gotcha Joe. And did Steve mean that the storm had a 25% chance of happening or just the perfect scenario he laid out?
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
@Joe, does that sharing of the energy between those two systems implicate a higher level of strength for the system out to the west right now given its ability to draw the energy from the clipper?
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Anyone else miss the old chat room days....lol
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Joe - drink them now and go get a new case for the weekend!
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
All models are still on board. There are differences, but look at the attached and you'll see why. The Clipper will have its say in the matter!
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
Joe, I was just going to ask you that. Both the Euro and GFS had it arriving more so Monday/Tuesday. Do you think that this system from saturday will hang around Canada/Greenland Long enough to slow down the system coming Monday/Tuesday?
2 years ago
whsbb99
whsbb99
jeffro i believe the map reads 5.9 not 5-9
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
Hey guys, I was looking at the latest 12z GFS today in comparison to the 00z Euro and I'm troubled by the discrepancies in the strength of the storm. Euro has it at around 974 (or thereabout) and the GFS has it at around a 992. If I'm correct, the GFS has been trending stronger as the runs progress and we get closer to the date of the event. Is there a consensus that this trend will continue and if so, do we think that the strength shown in the GFS will eventually match (if not get close to) that of the Euro? My concern with the strength is the storms ability to draw in as much cold air as quickly as possible (Seeing as the cold air isn't really in place).Thanks in advance!
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
hey folks - I have a nowcast blog for the clipper. Suggest we keep this one on the weekend and the runs today.
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
i live right where the montco chester and berks lines come together. radar filling in west, south, and east of me buthaving a hard time getting here it was down to 22 this am wit 14 dewpoint. i think i will be in the rip off zone along with the lehigh valley !smh.

www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/pa/philadelphia/dix/
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
I think that NWS totals map is definitely inflated. 5-9 for Montco? From a clipper? I know that our storms have over performed this winter but that's a bit much.
2 years ago
LoveDelawareSnow
LoveDelawareSnow
Public school districts in New Castle County, Delaware have announced early dismissals.
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
atrain - I would say it is doubtful.
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Chance of an early dismissal for haddon heights, nj SD?
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Nick is that for Montco too?
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
just got the call from Perkiomen Valley SD. an hour early dismissal
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I can see anywhere from 3-5 for chester, southern philly county and Gloucester and camden county in new jersey. Agree?
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
I am aware of Methacton, North Penn and Spring-ford at the moment.
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
jeffro where in montco?
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Its amazing that even the NAM is on board with Saturday this far out.
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Districts are letting out early here in montco
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
@Freeze ....haha
Do we have a back up plan?
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
I fully expect, predict, and have a stone cold mortal lock on one thing.

This site will crash several times today....
2 years ago
weatherwatcher
weatherwatcher
thanks armando
2 years ago
Philweather
Philweather
I have a feeling that the 12 runs are going to be off a little bit
2 years ago
weatherwatcher
weatherwatcher
without getting into specifics the threat on tuesday, is it equal to the weekend threat..4-8ish ...smaller, bigger potential?
2 years ago
Philweather
Philweather
By tonight it would be back in fun spot
2 years ago
Philweather
Philweather
Some of the 12 runs today are going to be east by 15 to 30 miles bm.
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Thanks Armando...keep it rolling!
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
I will presume forecasts will change quite a bit in the next few days...lol
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
accuweather says 4-8 for me too. all snow . the nws is saying its going to be a fast mover
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
I'm loving all this action...it's fun reading all the discussion threads about pending storms! This is Winter...Thanks all ~ nice work!
2 years ago
Brandon5
Brandon5
This is getting exciting!
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
From what I saw, everything is still in play, but I will let someone with more knowledge answer that question for sure, but there is still a 980mb storm there
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Well, I'm officially starting to get excited about this clipper today, I live down Gloucester county and it is looking like we might be in the sweet spot down here. Praying for the best, preparing for the worst, lol. Lets get a nice snow pack to lock on some more cold air for these weekend storms, exciting times even just tracking these storms. Keep the updates coming guys, great work from everyone, thank you for all the great input.
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
The 0z GFS is loaded with potential ...stormy times ahead ...load up on coffee........just wow
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Tcs did u like euro run?
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Wow just amazing runs for tonight i cant get too excited but the excitment is there
2 years ago
Hurricane75
Hurricane75
We all are wishing for a 950 bomb in the sweet spot to bring a true blizzard with hurricane force winds! And then we woke up from our sweet dream to a sunny morning near 50
2 years ago
Hurricane75
Hurricane75
As always it's a guessing game like the Eagles players who is showing up to play at least there maybe a game
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
It's was good, expecting a bit more with how it initially looked, actually scooted east a tad. H5 never closed off.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Super amped up through 66. Wonder what it will show
2 years ago
Ericweather123
Ericweather123
Euro model is out 24 hours now. Wonder if it will look as good or even better than the earlier runs?
2 years ago
Ericweather123
Ericweather123
We will see .
I live in central Montgomery County. I think we will see 2-3 if the track shifts a little more north.
2 years ago
John
John
Tomorrow's storm may over perform. The latest SREF at 04UTC is south at the DELMARVA and faster. The RAP 04 UTC is also at DELMARVA but a tad north. 00Z NAM is deeper and farther north.
2 years ago
Ericweather123
Ericweather123
Hey Everyone
havnt had a lot of time to be on here latly but I am ready for the next few days! I'm tired but I need to know what the Euro is going to do tonight.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
It should be out in 35 minutes so I will stay up
2 years ago
John
John
hello guys

Well cold vorts coming over warm ocean ssts that have been warm all winter so far. The Vorts are strong enough and deep enough to feed itself as it approaches the coast. The ???? here is the 1st vort kind of jumps out a liltle bit after exiting. There is an HPA in prime location. it all looks good except the track was a lil off now even that is changing. will be monitoring the RAP and SREF for in the morning
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
EURO tonight might show the BIG dog. lets see in an hour
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Coast goes from rain to snow also right ?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando are you saying I would be in the snow also where I live queens/ nassau border which is considered western LI ?
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
GEFS are simply amazing. The individuals must look like MECS/HECS
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs on the cmc it shows blue which is now but the 540 line is north of where the blue is can you give your insight ?
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
GEFS are crazy again. This is insane
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Money Shot in Weather Porn Right Here
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
It's...beautiful (hour 84 CMC)
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Just saw the CMC too. Whole I-95 corridor from Richmond to NYC gets clobbered.

So GFS and CMC hitting the right marks. Now, the euro...
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
what's the deal with tropical tidbits tonight lol. TCS, what website are you seeing the CMC on?
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
CMC is a big hit. Wow, NYC gets demolished with the CCB hr 90
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando do you agree with me on that assessment ?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
This looks like rain/ mix over to heavy snow imo
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs thank you
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
this isn't a freezing rain setup. Don't even look at the NAM precip type this far out lol.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
It would have allowed the low to track closer to the coast which would bring more PRECIP and most likely colder temps due to a stronger storm. Hope this is helping folks.
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Nam had more of a freezing rain/snow type deal for the weekend
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
If it closed off earlier would that bomb it faster and also draw in cold air into the system ?
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Nevermind got it from another site. Yep way colder, and mostly snow for the entire duration. Will be interesting to see what the euro says
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Yup, temps crash as the storm gets going. Which will happen, but we could start off as slop, wouldn't surprise me.
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Tcs can you post s picture of it? Tropical tidbits is stuck on hour 72 lol
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Gfs on that run seemed alittle colder
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs also you said so close what did you mean by that ?
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
we just needed H5 to close off a bit earlier for us. IF that happens its game on.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Sometimes, powerful systems in the past have had tight precip gradients.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs , also what was so close ? Sorry about all the questions just trying to learn bud
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
GFS also getting better and better looking for that next period after this storm. TCS wait, don't get ahead of yourself...ok.
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Tcs, what website are you on? I'm on tropical tidbits
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs ... Why does it show such a sharp cut off too the west with the precip tight gradient your insight please
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
I'm out to hr 147 lol
2 years ago
Alicia979
Alicia979
Even though 540 is still on mason dixon line, nice snows all the way down to VA/NC border. Goes to show trusting 540 line this far out isnt very accurate (on hour 72 GFS)
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
a lot of positives this run next ggem then euro
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Doesn't completely do it this run guys. But remember, the GFS doesn't catch on completely until a couple days out, but tomorrow night I expect it bombing this storm. It was SO CLOSE this run
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
500s at hr 72 - real quick. going mobile soon. northern stream looks more..north, trough/vort more deep/amped.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
look at that moisture down south
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando Im dead serious lol
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
stronger phasing going on at hr 36 with the southern energy
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
things going according to schedule, phase is ongoing at hour 15.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
gfs run is underway. Data dump (why do we call it that!) and analysis are complete. Frames being generated.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando this storm is gonna be a bomb I might even rent a cabin type place nw of 95 if I don't wind up getting to much snow where I live lol
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
well...we may set a record for bringing down the site with a clipper and only a potential storm... Nice.

Anyway. NAM. 0-36 hrs. STOP. enough said. Well - maybe it's like 24-36hrs only....

ok - just kidding. Look at the run, look at the changes from the 12Z in the upper levels - and yes, with the NAM, don't look at those things past 36-48hrs.

Armando - I like west based NAO better, but any darn thing with the right trend works for me at this point!
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
I can't wait to see where this absoulte DEATH band sets up.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
No doubt in my mind there is a storm coming I can say that with very high confidence just a matter of details p type , timing , totals
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Looking at precip type, it would be sleet, not rain, then it would bomb out and wrap in the air and it would be a crush job. Like I said from the cities points east, they have to watch this closely and they might be mixing for a long period of time. But too early still for p type talk.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs looks really warm and also looks like a coastal hugger I know it's the nam at 84 hrs
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Well there we have the 00z NAM. Out at 84 has a 996 running up the coast, this was definitely going to BOMB out at hr 87. wow.
2 years ago

Related Blogs

Powered by JomSocial

 EXTREME WINTER WEATHER