MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Clipper NOWCAST.....

Discussion started by FreezeMizer 2 years ago

Good morning to all!

 

We have a big day ahead.  The clipper is coming!  The clipper is coming!  hahahaha.  Below are some current observations.

1-21 wv v1

WV shows some nice support for our little guy as he travels east for the big cities.  If you watch a live loop (I need to figure out how to post live loops!) you would see that area right off the coast just exploding.  (a teaser for the weekend blog!)

 

Current surface map:

1-21 surface v1

And radar at 7:15am

current radar v1

 

No major changes in thinking from last night, yet.  I think temps will have to be monitored as some mixing could be on the front end.

 

clipper call

 

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John
John
As per 500 mb vort GFS 210115 00Z GFS has room from 20 through 30 hr has room to trend north. Vorts are south of LI NY versus further south on previous runs. Models are trending north.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Clippers will drive you mad!
2 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
Wow three storms possible within 6 days is crazy with the one tomorrow then the weekend coastal and then early next week possible coastal. I have not seen weather this active since last year or Evan the 09 -10 winter. Lets get that snow to stick around starting with tommorows storm which is getting very interesting as we speak.
2 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
The weekend storm seems alittle colder and just along the coast I'm not sure about!
2 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Is this site slow tonight or is it my ipad?
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Attached are the current surface and jets.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
well..well..well. WW, Very nice to see you online my friend.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
rgem not as impressive as the nam
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
This thread should be strictly CLIPPER TALK
MY model disco for the big daddy storm. To keep things easy to read.

The site is great tonight guys thanks
2 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
@kevinc actually I was only thinking about the best case scenario to maximize accumulations but your absolutely right. Hope your wife isn't feeling any ill affects from her fall the other day.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Me and Armando think a like its so funny haha
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Uh oh you know its a party when Kevin pops in haha. how's it going man
2 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
I am totally onboard with this maybe squeeze your area in orange a bit further south. I will get my snow map out by 11 or so.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Yeah, I am expecting 2-3 inches in west chester. Will be interesting to see where that band forms. Someone will get 4-6 from this.
2 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Good point dehaven!! Might we be overlooking tonight because we are caught up over tomorrow? I think with the showers this afternoon and some fog around tonight, yes some areas could get icy tonight, with temps dropping .....
2 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
Winter weather advisory for camden on south with 2-4 inches. NWS getting aggresive tonight!
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@nick so your right on the edge I guess this will be a close call for alot of people sheesh
2 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Thanks nick, yes has nothing to our area but someone's area on here maybe!
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@nick where exactly do you live in nj ?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando I think even if it does rain once the storm strengthens and gains latitude it will turn coastal sections to snow do you agree ??
2 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
I was thinking about tonight and having that top surface re-freeze. Really believe that once it starts in PA and interior Jersey temp will get to 32 or lower quick.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
I might be screwed I live on the border or queens/nassau on Long Island prob 15 miles east of nyc
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
DavidG - nice! get into the game!
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Your in a great spot for the weekend regardless of the track unless we get a coastal hugger than u have to worry but I don't think will see a hugger
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@johnathan, it shows at least 0.25" of liquid probably more I don't have access to exact liquid amounts I really believe philly and burbs see 2-4 " possibly alittle more imo
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
current surface with the clipper path and the southern energy.
2 years ago
kevinc
kevinc
Nick, I haven't seen any history weather facts lately!!
2 years ago
16DavidG3
16DavidG3
This is my snow map that I am putting on my weather page on Facebook tonight but since other people are showing their snow maps I wanted to showcase mine.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Armando where do you live ?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
SREFS ... Came in alittle more bullish has 0.25 " liquid going up to nyc
2 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
Sold. I'll take that NAM run. I see everybody in PA and most of Jersey are at or below freezing now. Get cold baby!
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
0z nam looks a colder also
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Martin! nice work! I think a nice coating makes sense with pockets/parts that benefit from where the axis of moisture can set up.
2 years ago
martin
martin
My snow map for tomorrow's event!
2 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
SJ will benefit from the later start time. Your right Nick, all we want to see is snow falling. LOL! We are so close to being rewarded!
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Not really worried about critical thickness with this clipper, but the attached shows how the cold is moving in....
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Look at the WV and the highlighted area right off the east coast. This isn't part of the clipper solution, but what it shows is that once something hits the east coast there is a very quick intensification. The SE area of WV needs to play a good role if we want a decent return on investment.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Ballz - yes - it is the "potential" that NWS experts see. Pretty sure I used that word, but very good point, if I didn't, then apologies!

It is POTENTIAL folks. You need to ask yourself - "why would the paid professionals use a chart that shows potential and actually try to attach probability to it?" Because MN does what she wants and we try to take the ride.

Armando - yes! nowcasting, nowcasting, nowcasting. Again, spot on.

Clipper drive me nuts.....you'd think we live next to the Himalaya's!
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Hey Ballz...Good to see you came back from your break. The reason I lean a bit heavy right now is that today it was 46 in Philly and tomorrow we're getting snow. That just screams at me that we have a dynamic change overnight, with energy diving, SE (WV) moving into position and a warm Atlantic.

A quick burst and 1-2" turns to 2-4". Yes. Pennies compared to what we now expect from storms, but I'll take all I can get!
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
And...that's no shot at NWS - those folks are awesome. I love how they added charts like that for potential....
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
nowcasting this one will be a lot of fun, and hopefully just a tune up for this weekend.

J123 - take a look at the attached. Even the NWS understands there is potential. I'm leaning towards the potential because of what I've seen so far this winter as well as the direct impact factors of the current atmosphere (i.e., Armando's spot on comment) and things like SSTs.
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
Agreed TCS haha. I love freeze's map here.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Hey CLV - I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see a more amped solution with more N&W getting into the game, but on the lighter side unless the track changes.

1-4" is not a bad call. I think there is good potential for some sweet spots of 4-6", mainly in the center area.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Never trust accuweather.
2 years ago
ChristianLehighValley
ChristianLehighValley
Accuweather has the heaviest swath of snow much more north.
2 years ago
ChristianLehighValley
ChristianLehighValley
I'm thinking 1-4'' area wide.
2 years ago
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