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Wed - Weekend Analysis Blog

Discussion started by FreezeMizer 2 years ago

Update: 12:51pm

 

I'm a bit jammed today, so will catch up later, but wanted to give a quick analysis of the upper levels at the 48hr prior, and 24 hr prior timeframe.  It shows why we're so interested in the current clipper and how it helps (hurts) the weekend system.

Thurs CMC 500mb analysis Thur-Fri

Using the 12Z GFS.  The left side is hr 18 (roughly Thursday morning tomorrow).  You can see the clipper on the east coast and the weekend energy over TX.  24hrs later on the right side you can still see the connection!  Simple view:  It's like it's holding the western side of the ridge back from allowing the trough to swing through!

 

So on this run for the GFS, there is a bit more of a positive tillted trough at both 48 and 24hrs, more than I would normally like to see.  But if you look just 24 hours later, the trough moves very quickly towards the east and is in decent shape for the coastal.  Not great, but decent. 

 

gfs z500 vort us 13

That quick movement is thanks to a very good jet streak.  The GFS has a more grazing hit on the 12Z run.  Interestingly enough, the CMC became a little more agressive and has less positive tilt comparatively and a better trough setup, though maybe a tad quicker.  Both nudge a bit eastward instead of up the coast.  It's Wed - no concerns on that run.

 

I'll post more as I get a chance.

 

Original POST:

It doesn't seem that when you update a blog it goes to the top any longer, so instead of searching, I figured I just create a blog each day to analyze the weekend potential.  I'm sure there will be a daily discussion blog as well to allow run by run, frame by frame type comments/analysis, so I'll try to sum it up in here to keep all up to date.

 

First up:  THIS IS SERIOUS!  We have a real threat to deal with and now we should start looking at some of the finer points in the runs as there will be a LOT to discuss.

 

Real quick pics below from the 00Z runs overnight.  More to come later this morning and with the 12Z runs today.

 

 1-21 00Z runs

 

There are good things with the 00Zs and some challening things.  We'll look at and analyze each throughout the day.

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FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
hahahahaha... good one ballz.
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Legs - clipper nowcast and thoughts in another blog to try and keep our sanity. - yeah, i know, lost cause....
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Thanks Freeze! What are your thoughts on the Clipper for today? Who gets what (N/W of Philly)...
2 years ago
Victor
Victor
Still have not heard anyone getting to serious about this storm. I guess they are waiting until this clipper moves out.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Hey Legs - the devil is on the details, exact track, precip field, intensification, temps at varying levels, etc.,

The agreement is more in the trends right now with a more coastal track, and the intensification of the storm off the coast. Other than that - much more to look at.
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Nice job Freeze! Where do you stand right now with what seems to be agreement across the models....Thanks! Legs
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Nice, models came in pretty good lastnight
2 years ago

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