I'm a bit jammed today, so will catch up later, but wanted to give a quick analysis of the upper levels at the 48hr prior, and 24 hr prior timeframe. It shows why we're so interested in the current clipper and how it helps (hurts) the weekend system.
Using the 12Z GFS. The left side is hr 18 (roughly Thursday morning tomorrow). You can see the clipper on the east coast and the weekend energy over TX. 24hrs later on the right side you can still see the connection! Simple view: It's like it's holding the western side of the ridge back from allowing the trough to swing through!
So on this run for the GFS, there is a bit more of a positive tillted trough at both 48 and 24hrs, more than I would normally like to see. But if you look just 24 hours later, the trough moves very quickly towards the east and is in decent shape for the coastal. Not great, but decent.
That quick movement is thanks to a very good jet streak. The GFS has a more grazing hit on the 12Z run. Interestingly enough, the CMC became a little more agressive and has less positive tilt comparatively and a better trough setup, though maybe a tad quicker. Both nudge a bit eastward instead of up the coast. It's Wed - no concerns on that run.
I'll post more as I get a chance.
It doesn't seem that when you update a blog it goes to the top any longer, so instead of searching, I figured I just create a blog each day to analyze the weekend potential. I'm sure there will be a daily discussion blog as well to allow run by run, frame by frame type comments/analysis, so I'll try to sum it up in here to keep all up to date.
First up: THIS IS SERIOUS! We have a real threat to deal with and now we should start looking at some of the finer points in the runs as there will be a LOT to discuss.
Real quick pics below from the 00Z runs overnight. More to come later this morning and with the 12Z runs today.
There are good things with the 00Zs and some challening things. We'll look at and analyze each throughout the day.