MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Storm Of The Year Setting Up

Discussion started by TeleConnectSnow 2 years ago

Well guys, its getting closer and closer to this potential MAJOR EAST COAST STORM/MECS.

THE EURO JUST CAME IN WITH AN ABSOLUTE BOMB and CRUSHES the I-95 CORRIDOR.

What I really like about this storm is that it is originating in the Gulf and the moisture feed with this one is going to be very impressive to watch.
The storm then goes under RI (Rapid Intensification) while running up the east coast. The Ensembles have led the way with this storm, two days ago I knew this was looking really good when the EPS began having SEVERAL SUB 980 MB storms right off the coast.
THIS BLOG WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY As I am heading out, just wanted to get this thread out there.

EURO 969 LOW off the LI coast WOW

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johnscrum
johnscrum
what i don't understand is the euro and ensembles are locked on a big storm all the sudden the overnite gfs and nam have agreement on more disorganized and farther east track and all the sudden the nws puts out a lame snow map.. oh well they changed yesterdays clipper map 5 times and still got it wrong . LOL.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Guys im heading to freezemizers new blog to discuss it too many comments in this one
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
That looks like crap for SNJ, that better not stay like that lol or I will be like a 5 year old that did not get what he wanted for Christmas. On a side mote, it is snowing right now
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
Here you go JohnScrum, this was 19 minutes ago..
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I am starting to get concerned that the storm will be to far west and give the I-95 area mostly a slop storm though. Hopefully the models will return to an all snow thing later today.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I believe 12z NAM is initializing now... Let's see what it says, but I am more anxious to see GFS, Euro and CMC.
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
johnathan this was yesterday euro snowmap everybody except the shore gets nailed . havn't seen the updated one i stole from face book . from jim cantore twitter . if you are on twitter (wich i am not) maybe you could see if he put up a new one and post it here
www.facebook.com/…
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
I have accuweatherpro so it initializes faster so i'm not sure but it should be around 845
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Really Snowhope? Thought NAM started initializing at 9:30 AM for 12z? Well if it is in a half an hour, that's good because I don't really feel like waiting that long haha.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Nam should start running in about a half an hour.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Okay so NAM out in an hour and 15 mins, GFS in 2 Hours and 15 mins, and Euro at 1:30 PM. Also CMC out at 12:30 I believe, maybe 11:30, cant remember.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Editing comments is not working for me right now so it is actually the (Ensemble Prediction System) control run of the European showed 4-5" with scattered 5-6" marks in southeast pa.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
And also the EPS ( Ensemble Prediction System Control) for the European showed 4-5 with scattered 6" marks in southeast PA
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Jonathan123 The European from last night based on a 10:1 snow ratio showed 3" for southeast pa.
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Why we can never get too high or too low until we get closer to the storm! I love the idea of Pottstown being bullseye though. We still have to be patient to see what transpires today! Holding onto hope everything stays to the BM!! Thanks for all your updates guys!!
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
haha liverpool, ya we should be getting locked into agreement by 00z's tonight.
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
I thought the closer we get to "game time", the more accurate these models are supposed to get? Granted we are still about 48 hours away, but shouldn't these models start to meet up soon?
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
I'm not excited yet. But know that the pre-updated GFS bias was to the SE.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
John, I wouldn't get get too worried just yet. The ECMWF did decrease precip shield, but the pressure in MB of the storm was 974 MB at THE BENCHMARK.
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
euro snow map has me in bullseye (Pottstown) so i'm pulling for it but the way the nws is talking everybody is screwed .LOL
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Agree snowstorm101 i would not giveup at all yet
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Snowhope, what you said is all true. GFS east last night, came west. You said it's an off run, but remember when GFS came east on 6z yesterday morning? It stayed on 12z and 00z last night before flipping this 6z. I think it will hold through 12z and 00z maybe coming with precip slightly farther west, and then lock in. Euro consistency is very good, aside from the precip shield shrinking a bit, and has good ensemble support. CMC just grazed us yes, but I am sure 12z run will be better. NAVGEM was first to see this storm a while ago,
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE
EAST COAST. THE SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES HAVE DECREASED. THIS INCLUDES SOME OF THE WESTERN ECMWF
ENSEMBLES, THROUGH EXAMINATION OF THE MEAN. THE 18Z GEFS ALSO
APPEAR TO HAVE A TIGHTER SPREAD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM
AND GFS REMAIN FURTHER OFFSHORE AND LESS DEVELOPED WITH THE ECMWF
TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER THE CMC AND UKMET
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH HIGHER QPF. THE OVERALL
TREND OVERNIGHT WAS TO SHOW A MORE DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
yes Jonathon, I dont see areas West of western NJ getting as much snow. PA will still get snow, just not as much due to the dry air. Still thinking precip comes a bit further west.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Lets clear some things up here. The 00z gfs went east barely hit us. The 06z gfs came back west but is also considered a gfs off run. The 00z european model stayed the same track but the precip shield shrunk giving us less in the way of precip. 00z Navgem still gives us a hit. 00z cmc grazes us like said below. If i were you all i would be a little worried at the moment because if the 12z models stay the same we could be in trouble.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
That's what gets me John, the precip doesn't expand that far to N&W. Dry air slot I guess. BUT the 12z models may trend a bit west with precip shield.
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
why does every gfs map i see show the storm at good spot BUT not much precip north & west ?
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Also, you really cant ignore the Euro and its consistency along w/ strong ensemble support. I think Euro wins this. Trough axis out west over Midwest (as Bernie Rayno mentioned in his video) will bring southwesterly winds into Mid-Atlantic+Northeast, steering storm up coast.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I have to admit, I am a bit worried, but things don't look as bad as last night. MY gut feeling is that all models will cave to Euro 12z and 00z today, and Euro precip shield may adjust a BIT further west.
2 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Just a quick update before work 6z did come back west a good 50-75 miles take with grain of salt may be an off run + thumps us nicely Monday! I know one at a time! Didn't read comments someone may have updated this already! Have fun tracking today gang!
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Jonathan, GFS went east last night, came west to BM at 6Z this morning. CMC still just grazes us, but should cave to Euro. Lots of people are panicking, but no need to worry. Upper Air setup looks good. I would show ECMWF but can't because of License Restrictions. But I can say that it has 974 MB low over BM.
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
@Jonathan.......So whatever Steve D says goes....you are always posting what he says....I'm not saying he is wrong but he has been wrong plenty of times....you sound like you go into depression if he says no Snow.....
Let's see what the model runs look like today......
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Jon, all models trended west today, those 100 comments you read were from last nights runs
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
I think its time to SLOWLY START GETTING EXCITED, key word SLOWLY
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Jon, look one post under yours at what snowstorm said, how does that look bad? Lol
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Steve D always says no snow because of no blocking. You can get big storms without blocking, and models are showing that at BM (Most of them). GFS even came west to BM this morning.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I say storm goes over or JUST west of BM. Euro and ensembles are pretty much locked in on a BM track, GFS came west to BM, CMC is trending towards BM now, and UKMET and NAVGEM BM.
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
The GFS ensemble is the only one that looks to be a tad too far east, every other model is looking pretty good to me around the 66 hr mark
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
The way I see it, yes it's in BM.
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Don't know if im looking at ot correctly, but 6z gfs looks like its inside the benchmark
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I don't think Euro even budged in terms of track/intensity/upper levels. Precip maybe a bit more east but that's about it. 6Z GFS came back west this morning.
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
I hope their dead wrong, I can't stand slop storms, I'll rather just get a monsoon instead of slop
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
what the heck happened ? the euro caved ? this is from nws mt. holly. and on nws state colledge they say nam and gfs locked!! wth ? after one run ? anyway here is what mt. holly has to say maybe 3-4 inches of slop if im not to far nw.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER, SNOW OR THE CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERRUNNING WAA. MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE BULK OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NJ WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SLEET MIXED AS WELL. THIS
IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MID-LEVEL WARMING IS GREATER THAN IN
THE AIR TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE NOTED NW OF PHL FURTHER FROM THE LOW. AFTER THIS PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION A DRY SLOT OR LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ( NW OF PHL) SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, SURFACE
WARMING IS GREATER THAN MID-LEVEL WARMING AT THIS POINT. A CCB MAY STILL
FORM ON THE BACKEND OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE MORE DISORGANIZED TRENDS HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCES OF THIS TO OCCUR. OUR QPF FORECAST TOOK
ELEMENTS OF THE WPC, SREF AND THE ECMWF. ALSO KEEPING IN MIND THE
MORE BULLISH QPF SOLUTIONS OF THE UKMET AND CMC. A ZONE FROM THE
LEHIGH VALLEY TO INTERSTATE 295 HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING
SNOW TOTALS FROM 3-4 INCHES, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS SURROUNDING THIS
ZONE. THIS IS DUE TO A QUICK CHANGEOVER SE AND LESS QPF NW. FOR
TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH RESPECTIVE MODELS HAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
2 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
No bridge jumping, at least not till 0z tonight. Lol! Good guys over at EPAWA. If this weekend and early next week does not work out I predict they will revise their winter forecast next Tuesday evening. 20% chance. Lol! Enjoy today's runs
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
Looks like 6z nam came in a little warmer...i guess model madness at it best..lol
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
6z NAM comes back west close to bm
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Take bro tom we should knw better
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Gonna get some sleep will you be on tm night those runs will tell all I think ttytm pal
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Still a lot of time to iron things out to call off a storm on a Wednesday night when it's supposed to come Saturday don't make sense
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
No way that's great
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Im in elmont also bro
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Snowlover786 where are u located pal ?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Imo I think if we get a rapidly deepening storm at the bm we will wet bulb and temps would drop bring a decent snow
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Jsnow hows it looking for elmont long island?
2 years ago
PhillyWeather13
PhillyWeather13
@armando
Hearing about a double barreled low structure on the EURO run. You see or hear any thing about this and where do you stand overall for this storm??? Have your thoughts changed or are we just not looking at the right information???
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
This setup for us at the coast is not good without a H to the north
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
It looks good so far we have 2 days models are not gna be perfect
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
If you think about it euro stayed the course , cmc a tad east ,gfs is furthest east, nam was close to bm so the only model that was Far East was the gfs it could be the outlier
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
but the thing is if its too far east we won't get a lot of precip and it will be relatively warm. Not a lot of cold air here for the storm
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
Guys all the models show a major storm
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Hopefully tomorrow things will get better
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
a meteorologist on another sight said it was the result of a sloppy phase and little vorts on the NW side of the storm thats interfering with the precip shield.

Again, not my words, don't wanna take credit from him
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
What was soo bad about the euro?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
It's nice to have somebody on here that's from the same town pretty much we can relate to storms for our area
2 years ago
snowlover786
snowlover786
How much does it show for nyc nyy?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Track is perfect I don't understand the precip shield getting cut off
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
NYY 516 we need this to track at the bm or a tad east for us to get snow
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
point is the track isnt bad and people writing it off should just wait. One suite doesn't mean it over. R-E-L-A-X
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
I don't have access to maps the problem is we live in ny a lot of people on this site are from philly and jersey so what's good for us might be bad for them and vice versa
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
haha im in rockville centre a few miles to your south east, euro wasn't horrible for us
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Elmont LI IN WESTERN NASSAU , how about you ?
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
yes Jsnow, my bad
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@nyy516 I live on the border of queens/ Nassau border on LI
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
NYY_516 are you asking me ?
2 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
To say this storm is over is an absolute joke. There's 2 more days of wobbling back and forth, I don't know how you could even try to call it off now
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
i didn't think it was that bad, where are you located snow?
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Anybody got a map ??
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
974 MLB AT THE BENCHMARK
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
What about the precip collapsing like TCS said Armando?
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
The NW side is lacking in precip again correct?
2 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Still early to say its over. Tomorrow and Friday...lots of changes
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
precip collapses like the GGEM
2 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
So far so good Armando
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Say goodbye to this storm guys
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Oh god...
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
similar look at 42
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
I think I am going to spontaneously combust waiting for Euro....
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
C'mon Euro! Show us some love!
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
IT makes sense to me, the precip gets shredded for several reasons. I will talk about that after the EURO.
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@tcs what I'm saying that don't make sense am I right ?
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Only model showing a TRUE ccb anymore is the NAVGEM. CMC lost it, GFS lost it, NAM lost it, we will see in 10 minutes if the EURO loses it.
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
As I said Jsnow, it was elongated on the CMC causing the PRECIP to taper and get ripped apart to the NW of the low.
2 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
id rather take my chances with a closer track and get under the CCB with heavy snow
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
@armando the cmc did not make sense you have a sub 990 LP off the jersey coast intensifying and the precip just cuts off an it was a BM track do you agree
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
If the models converge on a more of a east solution who would benefit the most from a more easterly track ? The coastal sections feel free to comment please
2 years ago
PhillyWeather13
PhillyWeather13
UKIE apparently looks really good. Farthest west with precip shield in this suite. And keep this in mind guys, UKIE is entering its deadly range now and with EURO coming up soon, maybe we can breathe easier knowing that the model that has been the most consistent with its track over the last few days hopefully continues to stay the course
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
It won't be like the GFS but I don't think it will look like 12z
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
Your right and I'm afraid to look tomorrow at the models as I feel lots of bridge jumping
2 years ago
John
John
My guess here some models mY be locked in and other models need more time. By tomorrow 18z that should be it for the medium range models. 00z for tje short range models. Not all models have locked into their solutions and it could be due their calibration on how they work off their false positives and reprocess their info. For example some models start with track and otjer models start with intensity.
2 years ago
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