Update: 9:41pm Thursday evening....
Start model AND nowcasting.......bottom left frame is the real battle of cold air. models are underestimating the strength....
Stop worrying, start putting the facts together...
Guess what mi amigos? - es el momento de patear el culo ! (I think that means either time to kick ass, or I married a goat while in Greece…)
No pics. Just thoughts and points. I highly encourage all to post blogs. We run discussion threads, analysis thread, etc., but in the end this site was built on people who love weather and posting their blogs with their own thoughts. What happened to that? BRING IT!
Ok - here we go. Why does anyone believe we have a big storm coming? models? Other weather outlets? Hmmm…. Why does anyone think we aren’t headed for a major coastal storm? HMMMMMMM….
Look at what we know, then what we don’t know, and the concerning factors that make the difference.
Right now I think there are three options:
1. A miss or rain / showers as it passes by - LOW probability
2. A grazing / minor hit with some mixing issues, but 3-6" in the end - Current favorite
3. A good thumping 6+ - medium probability
The runs today will be more telling as the clipper is already up through the NE. This also has had an influence on the solutions and wobbling to date.
The next 2 weeks look very active and more supportive than we’ve seen, so this is the start. Hopefully in 3 weeks we’re all talking about the multiple hits and makeup of snowfall.