MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Snowmaggedon? or Forgettaboutit.....???

Discussion started by FreezeMizer 2 years ago

Update: 9:41pm Thursday evening....

 

Start model AND nowcasting.......bottom left frame is the real battle of cold air.  models are underestimating the strength....

 

NC1

 

 

 

Stop worrying, start putting the facts together...

 

Guess what mi amigos?  - es el momento de patear el culo ! (I think that means either time to kick ass, or I married a goat while in Greece…)

 

No pics.  Just thoughts and points.  I highly encourage all to post blogs.  We run discussion threads, analysis thread, etc., but in the end this site was built on people who love weather and posting their blogs with their own thoughts.  What happened to that? BRING IT!  

 

Ok  - here we go.  Why does anyone believe we have a big storm coming?  models? Other weather outlets?  Hmmm…. Why does anyone think we aren’t headed for a major coastal storm? HMMMMMMM….

 

Look at what we know, then what we don’t know, and the concerning factors that make the difference.

  • Energy in TX will move through to the gulf and form a L pressure which will move across the FL panhandle and re-form near the benchmark used for NE snowstorms. That benchmark is 40 North, 70 West.

 

  • We do not have a fresh batch of cold air for the system to ride into, and the reason why is…

 

  • The northern stream is more of an influence than would be preferred, specifically with the L pressure system over the Mid-west at that time.

 

  • WV looks very good from west of MX and shifting into the gulf, the more intense the system from the gulf becomes, the better

 

  • The system will have plenty of moisture and has a very warm Atlantic waiting for it, which would help with intensification – so combined with the last point the bigger, the faster the intensification, the better.

 

  • The timing and placement of intensification is also critical. If that happens as it’s passing up, there could be a constriction of precip during the rapid intensification, if it happens before (phasing, etc.) then it’s better

 

  • Another challenge is the jet and the WV will allow warm air to seep in, and without that fresh injection of cold, the cold air isn’t as strong – so any solution with precip will have some precip type challenges, especially at the onset.

 

  • The speed and track of the system is the fine tuning challenge based on all the above

 

Right now I think there are three options:

1.  A miss or rain / showers as it passes by - LOW probability

2.  A grazing / minor hit with some mixing issues, but 3-6" in the end - Current favorite

3.  A good thumping 6+ - medium probability

 

The runs today will be more telling as the clipper is already up through the NE.  This also has had an influence on the solutions and wobbling to date.

 

The next 2 weeks look very active and more supportive than we’ve seen, so this is the start. Hopefully in 3 weeks we’re all talking about the multiple hits and makeup of snowfall.

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toNY
toNY
Hey guys I have to tell you this storm will be a bust for anyone from philly and south. Philly looks great for Monday's event.
Philly for Saturday event:1-3inches changing to rain around 8am and than switching to snow showers 1pm start time 11pm tonight. Monday expect 5-9 inches in philly fluffy snow. Nyc start time around 12:30 am snow to sleet dry slot than some CCB snow. Total accumulations 4-6 inches. Monday fluffy snow - 3-7 inches of snow. Enjoy it guys
2 years ago
PhillyWeather13
PhillyWeather13
Looks like there's Lightning off the TX/LA coast????? Was this supposed to occur or is this a potential Wild Card factor for this storm???
2 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
Legs.....lol!!!
Enough is enough... time to move to easier forum, this "new" website is the worst of all the changes over the years. Moving on... here is the FB site everyone is on now:
www.facebook.com/pages/Weather-2015/…
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
no doubt...lol
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
@Legs....yea since 2009
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Guys whoever can go to facebook, search "weather 2015" and join us, a lot of people cant log on to this website, we are all there
2 years ago
Legs
Legs
Any one looking into the issues with the site??
2 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
Correct me if I'm wrong Nick, I think the lower snow totals were based off the 12z nam and it's warmer solution! I wonder if everyone bumps up now with a colder solution!
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
IT's the NAM that usually has these type of runs right before the storm where it loads up on QPF. Unless another model comes in more juiced, take your 2-4 and run.
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
i can read the facebook comments but can't respond cant make a account unless i make a new email and dont feel like going through all the hassle..
yeah nick nam looks promising
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Yeah nam looks good but it is just one run lets see if gfs goes with it
2 years ago
TeleConnectSnow
TeleConnectSnow
NAM HIRES comes in colder also with 5-7 inches. PHL actually does better than NYC on the hi res by a couple inches
2 years ago
skaterMP
skaterMP
Why aren't you guys posting on the new FB page created "weather 2015"? This slowness and refreshing has beaten lots of us down... change is good and will be easier to post pics and thoughts. Plus everyone will get pinged when comments made.
2 years ago
Ericweather123
Ericweather123
If it gets here earlier the main part of the storm might be over night Friday into early Saturday which would mean more snow possibly because that there won't be as much warming from the daytime.
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
i'm getting worried that it;s still 34 and cloudy. i live in a area that gets great radiational cooling . it's supposed to go down to 21 here and like i said still 34 at 9:15. also seeing clouds from storm already coming into southwest pa. so thinking it will be warmer then forcast for tomorrow also . sheeeze this storm is stressing me out lol. yesterday thought i was getting 14 inches and now worried i'll get less then 4 " and yeah nick i could also see the area you have highlighted getting more but i like my chances here as well even though i'll be on the north western area i think i have less chance of getting any plain rain and also going back over to snow sooner from the mix. now if the skies would just clear so the temps will plumit .
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Nice Nick! I also heard EPAWA say the storm right now was 3 MB lower than forecasted. He said it does't matter right now, but if it continues to deepen overnight, it could alter the forecast.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
oh, and the highlighted section in the lower left frame is the battle ground of some cold air coming in from the northern stream and the system from the gulf moving up.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Along with model runs, a blend of nowcasting needs to be in the mix... A little more intense down in the gulf than modeled...
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
epawa not to disapointing for me at least it stays all frozen . the way they are talking it's going to start fri evening . i'm wondering if it will be cold enough, heck it's not even dropping now.
epawaweather.com/weather-alert-maps/
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRI NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
EAST COAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE TREND WITH REGARDS TO THE LATEST
MODELS ARE TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM A BIT QUICKER...AND BRING SOME
WARMER AIR FURTHER TO THE WEST SOONER. THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
DELMARVA SAT MORNING AND IT WILL TRACK QUICKLY NE THROUGH THE DAY.
PCPN WILL SPREAD NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z SAT
INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN FURTHER NE
OVERNIGHT. P-TYPE OF SNOW/SLEET AND SOME FZRA AT FIRST...THEN
WARMER AIR WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW DURING THE DAY SAT.
OUR SNOW TOTALS ARE ABOUT THE SAME OVERALL...AS THE PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT WE HAVE TRIMMED TOTALS MOSTLY S/E OF I-95. WE DISCUSSED
ADVISORIES WITH NEARBY OFFICES...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD FOR NOW WITH
THE ACCUMS HAPPENING WELL INTO THE 3RD PERIOD. OVERALL 2-4 ACROSS
THE CHESTER PA UP NE INTO SOMERSET COUNTY NJ...LESSER S. THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND EXTREME N NJ MAY ESCAPE THE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO ADVISORIES MAY NOT BE NEEDED THERE.
i thought we wanted it to strengthen faster ??
2 years ago
Jsnow
Jsnow
Which model won with this storm ? Anybody feel free to give your insight or opinion based on what is expected to occur
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
@Jonathan, I couldn't agree with you more. At least that's the picture I'm seeing. And oh boy...I love Bernie cause he's a very straightforward weatherman, but that could spell bad news for saturday...still hopeful though. Thank you for the clarification @Nick, much appreciated. I just watched Bernie's video, and while he does have a snowmap up, he is still not in favor of high end snow for another south of central NJ. The big snow looks to be reserved for New England states. He believes, much like you discussed Nick, that the warm air wins out in the lower I-95 area for too long and that by the time the storm reaches its bomb out point (the 988-ish Low), anything below south jersey has pretty much missed out on the snow. Here's hoping that the storm proves us wrong on this one!
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
Apologies for the double post, but its not letting me edit my other post. @Nick, thank you for the insight. I'm hoping you're right and the infusion of cold air arrives quickly! And I like the look of the 18z for Monday! If I'm reading the precip output right its looking like 4+ inches in the SE Pennsylvania region
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
@JonathanI'm not understanding the Local news call for rain after. Here is the temp profile during the onset of the storm. And from here the model only has it getting colder (And yeah, I know its 18z but it doesn't change the fact that it trends colder as the day goes on). My concern is rain at the start of the storm, but am I missing something as to how they're predicting rain after??
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Yeah even though I posted that snow map before, still am weary of this storm. Anything goes right now. Could end up with storm generating cold air quicker with more snow along I-95 corridor. It is very confusing, many weather outlets/weather channel are posting very different amounts, from "quick 1-3 inches to rain" to "4-6 inches mostly snow" depending on where you are, and even for the same spots there are different amounts from different outlets.
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I agree Phillyweather. But I am sticking with the 1-3 for now. Here is my totals map.. feedback?
2 years ago
PhillyWeather13
PhillyWeather13
@armando
Maybe you can help me out here because I'm really starting to get confused here. Based off of the 12z model suite you would think that we're getting a 3-6"/4-8" snowfall. However the local weather people in this area are saying "a quick 1-3 inches going over quickly to a mix and then going over quickly to rain." Then Greg Posted from TWC says that the "newest models have the cold closer to the coast as the storm produces its own." Can you give me some kind of insight into this because like I said, this is really starting to get confusing and I have a feeling that something is not right with this storm at all.
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
Does anyone have an approx. time frame on when the 540 line will drop SE enough for the 1-95 corridor to change over to snow? I know it's bound to happen during the storm, just not sure when. Thank you in advance guys, any help is appreciated.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Liverpool..no sweat, pass for now. But watch it!

Well, my plan worked. I hired the oompahs (blog from maybe 3 yr ago?) To infiltrate the weather model data centers and load fake data. I figured that would result in bridge jumping, wall punching, but most of all, site stability. I guess I need to pay those little fockers now...

OK. 12Z runs were not encouraging, and 18Z runs, which really are more statistically connect to the predecessor 12Z run, showed more *ugh* progression.

W71. ..yes! I do remember that...ah..well, my parents told me about it...well, ah crap, OK, I remember it. Fine. I was a prodigy 2 month old baby....OK, fine.

Seriously, I'm not suggesting miracles here, but something about gulf systems always seems to drive sampling nuts.
2 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
JC at weather NJ seems locked into 3 to 6 for I95. Good read.
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Hey guys, I just want to put out my call map for Saturday. I know ,many are upset about this not being a major I-95 snowstorm, but it is what it is. I do think, however, areas in NNJ through SNE could see a moderate snow event. The coast will have mixing and rain issues, with a lot less snow. Washington D.C. and Baltimore should stay in the mix area as well, but not much snow.Mixing/rain can occur in NNJ and SNE, but it will be mostly snow, unless the storm doesn't deepen quick enough. Just don't be surprised if you do see a period of time where there is mixing and rain in NNJ through SNE. Also watching Monday for a potential Miller B type storm system with a clipper redeveloping off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Setup looks better than weekend with a cold high to the north, "primitive" North Atlantic Blocking developing, and a ridge axis over Montana. Too early to tell accumulations for that storm. Anyways, here is the snow map for Sat.
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Its weather 2015
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Nothing has been said there guys, its just quiet now
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
3-6 would be your best bet N&W of the city, S&E rain changing to snow 1-3 if your lucky
2 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
I remember we had a similar setup January 87, but the low to the west weakened quicker than expected, causing quick offshore redevelopment, which lead to 8.8 inches of snow. The forecast was calling for 1-3 inches changing to rain, so we all went to school as scheduled, by 1 pm, we had about 5 inches on the ground, and they finally sent us home from school. I doubt it will happen again, but I have seen it before.
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
Freeze, my bad, I didn't know you had that copyrighted, please don't sue me, lol. I've heard larry mo and curly are a respectable firm
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
W71 - the real problem for me was the L over the mid west and no real H bringing in the cold. Without that, then yes, the blocking is really important, with it, then the blocking isn't as important except that we wouldn't get the full dump of snow with a H and a block.

Right now looks like odds are shifting quickly to option 1.5! A little bit of 1, a little bit of 2. From my perspective this is a big pile of #2!!!!

Don't get too caught up for Monday either. The current view is highly linked to this storm, etc.. And...say it, say it...it's a clipper!!!! I HATE clippers!!!

Liverpool... I've already copyrighted Bustageddon, you'll be hearing from my lawyers! Larry, Mo, and Curly LLP...
2 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
This storm never had enough factors going for it. Warm ocean+no blocking= quick changeover.
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
We had Snowmageddon, now we have Bustageddon
2 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
2 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Hey guys, anyone have thoughts for NW NJ for the weekend storm on snow accumulations?
2 years ago
weatherman71
weatherman71
I can't wait till after the weekend storm departs, and we can start talking about brutal cold and high snow ratios.
2 years ago
Brett_Brock
Brett_Brock
Pretty demoralizing to watch station after station downgrade the storm to a nonevent or rain event. However, I heavily agree with the second scenario. While the 540 line stays a bit too far north for snow in the onset, once the storm arrives the line crashes as the storm moves up towards the New England region. I know and am fully aware that the term "Backend snow" is the cop out of all cop outs for a storm, but if the storm moves slow enough and continues to strengthen, I think we could definitely see some snow in the latter stages of this system. Refusing to give up hope. Let it snow!
2 years ago
Hurricane75
Hurricane75
Ok 13/14 We Got 5 Feet Plus 14/15 Maybe 5:Inches so far? We have forecast models that now can go out to 15 days, When we cannot even get a good focus on a few days out the Computers are like the windshield wipers on a car. What I do have to say, I had a forecast out since September 2014 for winter 14-15. As you can see these computer models are useless. But I do think we will get some snowfall , but we were spoiled last year maybe for a lifetime of years! We average around 20 inches per year. I had about 150% of that in which was no way 5 feet! I noticed the site died as the computer models are spitting out just a few inches. I also noticed the site is freezing and crashing and slamming you with junk! It took me 50 Minutes to get to this spot!
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
****FACEBOOK GROUP****

WEATHER 2015
2 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
But I see mixing to rain for my area for northern virginia in Loudoun county where I live. Accuweather says 3-6 but I'm skeptical that the temps are a big issue if the storm does not intensify fast enough.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
I'm not looking past this one yet. The next 2-3 weeks look very promising, but even for Monday, this system is so close to that one, that we need to play it out. Can't argue that it doesn't look promising though!

I think there are adjustments we'll see with this one, though the challenge will remain not a full shot of cold, so instead of 3-6, maybe it bumps to 4-8".

Mustufa - S&E of Philly will have challenges. Look at the reg CMC, it gives a good sense of the cold air challenges....

collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/…
2 years ago
atrainweatherman
atrainweatherman
I agree with mike! I'll make one right now!
2 years ago
mustufa1
mustufa1
This storm was definitely lacking cold air because of no arctic high in place and as I said this could be mostly rain and not so much snow. But after this storm, the next storm for monday definitely has fresh arctic air so that one is more promising as we are entering cold and snowy pattern. Let me say one thing Armando, the MJO never entered the COD like others were saying including Charles. It circled back around to phase 7 which makes perfect sense why we are seeing more chances of snow especially on monday.
2 years ago
Largemike23
Largemike23
I just started a page called weather 2015 on Facebook
2 years ago
John
John
12ZGFS Peak Bar Pressure at 948mb south of Greenland. Its 992mb south of LI NY, and 998mb at the BM. Comparison between the GFS and the Euro tells be models are having convective issues due phasing and cyclogenisis at GOM.
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
Largemike... great idea. Someone start it and let's switch. It'll make it a hell of a lot better since we know it won't crash.
2 years ago
Largemike23
Largemike23
Long time follower of the site...let's start a Facebook group...very easily done
2 years ago
liverpoolfcfan
liverpoolfcfan
OMG, I have been trying to log on to the site for about 2 hours now, kept telling me site is offline. This is almost as ridiculous as the snow forecast for South Jersey, lol
2 years ago
John
John
ok guess were back at least temporarily
so we are warmer and weaker and west with most models except the Euro. hmmm. I regard the 12Z GFS to be stronger but the phase to be late. Instead of GOM we phase and deepen at hatteras and up and a lil in.
2 years ago
PhillyWeather13
PhillyWeather13
I agree with that.........site has already crashed on me multiple times
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
can i suggest an group email possibly of some kind? Make it private and keep it small [and respectful]? We all know this place is gonna crash shortly. It always does.
2 years ago
scoopy37
scoopy37
We need a back up plan when the site goes down .....this sucks
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Listen - There is a lot that needs to play out yet to make adjustments. Right now I'm looking at a more consistent showing of 3-6". I'm ok with the GFS and NAM runs given the scenario right now, as i see more potential for it to get better versus worse.

I think we're breaking the back of the Commodore 64 server.....
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
soooo from the sounds of it Armando, unless our area gets lucky I've wasted time trying to get on this 56K styled website for updates of this weekends "Storm of the Year"... When I hear MIX with a storm that's suppose to be snow, I know what the end result is in my area...
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Holy macaroni is this site running on a hamster wheel or something i can't even get on to other blogs lol.
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
Steve DiMartino (@NYNJPAweather) weather posted on twitter "I am saying it is nearly impossible to have a major heavy snow producer in this area and a predominant +NAO. Just the facts."

He posted more and anyone can view it with or without twitter. twitter.com/… [if this can get me in trouble delete it, just trying to help]
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Armando i am worried about the strength of the system if it does not have the strength to bring in it's own cold air we are going to have some major issues mixing wise
2 years ago
johnscrum
johnscrum
joe i think we'll be ok with all snow out here . Q is do we get enough precip and dynamics .
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Gfs precip is west but temps are warm
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
NAM showed some good things, but challenges with temps. Looks like a 3-5" run.

One thing I'm not worried about right now is precip field. It should be larger than modeled. They're not picking up on the warm waters, the WV, etc..
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
I am not liking how the precipitation shield is getting cutoff on the westside which has now kind of been consistent on the models. However, the newest Nam and Sref seem to be bringing it back as the Euro lastnight kind of came in with the precip on the westside cutoff as well. This storm is not really in a favorable setup we have a positive NAO a positive AO so we really don't have the blocking nor the cold air we need for a huge storm. Plus the European isn't showing it as strong as it did yesterday at the 00z and 12z which is kind of worrying to some extent because knowing that if it doesn't crank up it won't really be able to build up cold air. Of course 12z today can change everything though so I am still not giving up on the chance of a 5+ storm
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
What I don't like about the 12z NAM is that the LP in the GOM tracks NE across GA and then almost off the coast of NC. This negatively affects the intensification and so the total amount of precip is much less than if it tracked across FLA to the waters of the Atlantic and then up. I love the set-up of the 500s but then they don't neg tilt the way we want them to.
2 years ago
chrislong
chrislong
so fellas, with the 12z nam giving philly 3-5 as Snowhope said.. what models are you guys waiting for next to continue the positive hope of snow this weekend? [avid snow fan, minimal model knowledge, but always willing to listen and learn]
2 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
Freeze - you crack me up with your intro! Hilarious!

I love the options that you present based on the science of what is current. Thank you!

I do occasionally post my own blogs but those with actual meteo background/degrees are always going to get the most comments. Plus - I think the site performance makes it very difficult to jump back and forth between posts. Better to stay on one blog and keep waiting through the refresh time to get comments than to try to do that on multiple blogs.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Yeah 12z nam gives philly 3-5" of snow it looks like better than last nights 1-3" :/ still sref only gives 2.5 cause a lot of warmth
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Yeah challenges. I have been here since the winter of 2009-2010 i believe it has gotten pretty bad the last couple of years though but i have always liked this site. I have had to change my account too it was weather97 then snowfall100 now snowhope.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
site performance challenges since day 1, years ago. On one hand it's part of the legacy, on the other, it's part of the madness.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Sref has come west
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
I messaged rob about the site ^_^ i cant even edit my comments it is so slow i mean this has been like this for the last 2 years or something i believe especially when it got more popular.
2 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
First - this site is starting to piss me off. Performance is disgraceful. I normally have a lot of patience, but nothing ticks me off more than poor performing systems... FIX IT.

Ok - SnowH - 12Zs will have fresh data. 06Zs aren't a full set, but some fresh data - so the minor wobble W is a good sign since we're now entering the 48 mark until the event.

I think we have a really good chance for the right things to happen to go from Option 2 to Option 3. (maybe towards option 4....) Even with the challenges stated.

Gulf systems always throw models into a tizzy. This one will/should be bigger than currently modeled due to WV, gulf and Atlantic.
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
The 06z gfs came back west a bit is what i meant to say
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
06z gfs came back west a little. Do you think the 12z will tell the story?
2 years ago
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