We are now entering the main part of the storm and the exact track and extent of the snow shield will determin how much snow we get in NJ DE PA NY MD. Snow totals will vary quite a bit from town to town with most of the snow in the Eastern half of NJ, NYC Metro, Long Island and parts of PA.
Philly Metro is kinda split with the warnings and advisories but most will see at a few inches even in the Winter Weather Advisory area with up to 1 foot or more in the Winter Storm Warnings.
I am watching the thunderstorms offshore as the lift from this storm is starting to come together. The key will be the two areas of energy downstream (NC Coast) and how they steer and energize the storm the next 12-18 hours. The track of the LOW is key to big snow for areas south of NYC into Philly and New Jersey. Right now we get the western edge of the storm. The two "x' on the map below are vorticity maximums (vort max). They are small areas of energy or mini low pressures that can energize and even steer a storm. The other factor for the region is during the morning rush hour how much snow gets wrapped in the region as the storm heads into NYC?
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE STORM....
BY 7PM TONIGHT (PRE-STORM)
COATING to 1"
Philly, SNJ, DE, Lehigh Valley
CORE OF THE STORM
Expect most of the snow from this storm to occur in this timeframe
Snow Accumulation will vary from 1-2" in Reading to NE Maryland
Snow Accumulations 2-4" Philly S & W into Delaware
Snow Accumulations 4-6" Philly NE to Trenton
Snow Accumulations 3-6" in South Jersey
Snow Accumulations 4-8" NJ Shore
Snow Accumulations 5-9" Upper NJ Coast/N Central NJ
Expect more snow esp. through Rush hour, The storm will start to throw back snow
from NJ and NY as it gets deeper and grows larger
Snow Accumulations 1-2" Reading to NE Maryland
Snow Accumulations 3-6" Philly S & W into Delaware
Snow accumulations 3-5" Philly NE to Trenton
Snow Accumulations 3-5" in South Jersey
Snow Accumulations 4-7" Jersey Shore
Snow Accumulations 5-8" Upper NJ Coast/N Central NJ
STORM WINDS DOWN
1pm to 7pm Tuesday
Snow Accumulations None...just flurries
Snow Accumulations None (snow shower) Philly S & W to Wilmongton
Snow accumulations Coating to 1" Philly NE to Trenton
Snow Accumulations Coating to 1" in South Jersey
Snow Accumulations 1-2" Jersey Shore
Snow Accumulations 2-3" Upper NJ Coast/N Central NJ
THE STORM ENDS 2-4pm TUESDAY
100% CHANCE OF A SNOW DAY
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