MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

JAN 26 4:00pm NEW models, RADAR trends, and NEW SNOW TOTAL MAP

Discussion started by robweather 2 years ago

We are now entering the main part of the storm and the exact track and extent of the snow shield will determin how much snow we get in NJ DE PA NY MD. Snow totals will vary quite a bit from town to town with most of the snow in the Eastern half of NJ, NYC Metro, Long Island and parts of PA.

Screen Shot 2015-01-26 at 2.54.33 PM

Philly Metro is kinda split with the warnings and advisories but most will see at a few inches even in the Winter Weather Advisory area with up to 1 foot or more in the Winter Storm Warnings.

 

NOWCASTING...

I am watching the thunderstorms offshore as the lift from this storm is starting to come together. The key will be the two areas of energy downstream (NC Coast) and how they steer and energize the storm the next 12-18 hours. The track of the LOW is key to big snow for areas south of NYC into Philly and New Jersey. Right now we get the western edge of the storm. The two "x' on the map below are vorticity maximums (vort max). They are small areas of energy or mini low pressures that can energize and even steer a storm. The other factor for the region is during the morning rush hour how much snow gets wrapped in the region as the storm heads into NYC? 

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Screen Shot 2015-01-26 at 4.05.08 PM

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Screen Shot 2015-01-26 at 3.33.27 PM

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE STORM....

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BY 7PM TONIGHT (PRE-STORM)

COATING to 1"

Philly, SNJ, DE, Lehigh Valley

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CORE OF THE STORM

12a-7am TUESDAY

Expect most of the snow from this storm to occur in this timeframe

Snow Accumulation will vary from 1-2" in Reading to NE Maryland

Snow Accumulations 2-4" Philly S & W into Delaware

Snow Accumulations 4-6" Philly NE to Trenton

Snow Accumulations 3-6" in South Jersey

Snow Accumulations 4-8" NJ Shore

Snow Accumulations 5-9" Upper NJ Coast/N Central NJ

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BACKLASH SNOW 

7am-1pm TUESDAY

Expect more snow esp. through Rush hour, The storm will start to throw back snow

from NJ and NY as it gets deeper and grows larger

Snow Accumulations 1-2" Reading to NE Maryland

Snow Accumulations 3-6" Philly S & W into Delaware

Snow accumulations 3-5" Philly NE to Trenton

Snow Accumulations 3-5" in South Jersey

Snow Accumulations 4-7" Jersey Shore

Snow Accumulations 5-8" Upper NJ Coast/N Central NJ

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STORM WINDS DOWN

1pm to 7pm Tuesday

Snow Accumulations None...just flurries

Snow Accumulations None (snow shower) Philly S & W to Wilmongton

Snow accumulations Coating to 1" Philly NE to Trenton

Snow Accumulations Coating to 1" in South Jersey

Snow Accumulations 1-2" Jersey Shore

Snow Accumulations 2-3" Upper NJ Coast/N Central NJ

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THE STORM ENDS 2-4pm TUESDAY 

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Screen Shot 2015-01-26 at 4.22.41 PM

 100% CHANCE OF A SNOW DAY

HAVE FUN KIDS, TEACHERS AND PARENTS

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terreri31
terreri31
Looking at the radar I don't see where Philly is getting 4-8. Heck me saying 3 to 6 seems like a stretch
2 years ago
terreri31
terreri31
Double post whoops
2 years ago
terreri31
terreri31
I'm fearful that the lessons of March 2001 haven't been heeded
2 years ago
vasukiv
vasukiv
SgtSnow, Oak is leading the train on the FB page. I have to admit, ever since that page started, it's been much easier to get on to this site during a major snow storm. On the other hand, it's kind of dead here. Only 15+ replies to Rob's post? This time last year, there would have been hundreds. I go on both sites---I've respected Rob as a meteorologist since his Fox29 days, and especially his ability to describe complicated weather phenomena to the uninitiated.
2 years ago
SgtSnow
SgtSnow
I miss the Oaktrain much to look forward too in the not to distant future too.
2 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
o blog in motion thanks and good night . Be safe.
2 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Rob - How is looking for West Chester, PA?
2 years ago
terreri31
terreri31
whoops sorry to jump the gun Rob!
2 years ago
robweather
robweather
terreri blog in motion
2 years ago
terreri31
terreri31
Just to make sure I'm not going bonkers (which is possible), why does the map show 10-14 for philly and the breakdown below the sat image says 4-6" for Phila NE (and plus the coating/1" of course). is much more coming thereafter to get the total into the 10-14 range because my understanding was just about all the snow is from that 12-7am timeframe.
2 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
Your map say s 12 to 18 for trenton not 4 to 6 south jersey 8 to 12 not 3 to 6 .Did you loose your mind ?? Big e lol your funny.
2 years ago
SnowKat
SnowKat
In the old days (last year) there would've been 86 new responses since my question. I'd be sitting here wading through them for any that actually answered my question and then narrowing those down to the folks that actually know what they are talking about. Today, this has been less of an issue for me.
2 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Rebel - your a moron chief. All of your forecasts are a joke and many people left this site because of you and your stupid jokes. I happen to stick around because I've always been a Rob G. fan. Rob G is one of the best mets in philly.
2 years ago
robweather
robweather
rebel you have 1-3" right for SNJ?
2 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
so What are you saying Rob From the air port south philly to the lehigh valley will get 6 to 9 total included south jersey and de , lol thats funny.
2 years ago
REBELG
REBELG
WEST CHESTER WILL GET SHAFTED Heck philly and south may get shafted too . My call 3 to 6 for Phila and Magnolia nj
2 years ago
SnowKat
SnowKat
Looking at the Intellicast map I can see the transfer of energy taking place. It seems like the nor'easter is forming closer to the coast than I thought it would. Is that correct or is it where it was always supposed to be?
2 years ago
Euro Domination
Euro Domination
Rob - I am concerned that West Chester, PA will get shafted. What's your call? Literally right down the road from me is Edgemont and Newtown Square and NWS has them in 12 to 16 inches. That doesn't seem to make sense to me.
2 years ago
fiveone5
fiveone5
Thank you for the update!
2 years ago
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