I'll tell you what I recall from when I was a child back in the dark ages (much longer ago than 15 - 20 years ago, haha). I recall being told: "looks like 1-3 inches" then 2 inches in they say "looks like 2-4" then 3 inches in they say "3-6" and so on until the storm was done. We never even knew if we'd have a snow day until the morning of. Sometimes you could be dressed and ready before finding out. So I'm going to say forecasting is better now. However that doesn't make it great. Hopefully in my lifetime it will be great, but it is not yet.
Maybe not much better than 15 - 20 years ago, but definitely better than 30 years ago when I was a kid. I can remember some busted forecasts in the early - mid 90's that just stick out in my head for some reason.
Dude... Hurricane, give it a rest buddy. Your last 3 or 4 posts have to do with human touch. We get it. I'm sure you're great at forecasting as some of your other posts I totally agree with. Computer guidance (key word is guidance) has made forecasts a lot more reliable for a longer period out than say even 15 - 20 years ago. I can remember as a kid getting slammed with snow when the mets said we would only get and inch or two and also the other way around. Yes, this last storm is a bust, but if only 1 is a bust in recent memory, than I'll take that over forecasting from 15 - 20 or even 30 years ago. This post is not meant to offend and if it did, I'm sorry. Just don't know how many more times I can read Human touch.
Weather people all over the region are starting to take a serious look at Sunday night's storm with some saying there's potential for "heavy snow" at least at the moment...I thought most forecasters would be gunshy after the recent forecast was a bust for Phila...
So which model will have it right but the most important point is that we need to look at the pattern, We need to take into account back when we did not have computers we still made good forecasts. So we need to put our human touch into it and we need to put what we learned from these pros back then so we can get it right.