Hey guys, it's John Manetta, (AKA-John M).
About three and a half weeks ago it became apparent that ~2/12-2/21 was going to be an interesting period, (if you like frigid cold and snow that is). I couldn't post this because I was in the hospital and didn't have a computer or a new phone yet. Several days back I posted that 2/14-2/21 was the time to watch for severe cold and good chances at significant snow and lastly, a chance to make up for our snow deficet with a major storm. I further mentioned that I expected a period of -EPO/+PNA/-NAO for a time during that period. I continue to believe that this will be the case.
When I spoke of frigid cold, I was thinking that it would be the coldest air of the season and equal or surpass the coldest days of last Winter. I continue to believe that to be the case.
I will go into more details on this soon, (probably tomorrow), but I think that we have a better than 65% chance at seeing at least one MECS.
A buddy sent me links to pages with mets that are on the same wavelength of my thinking...this is no surprise as the severe cold/snow chances for the region could easily be seen from far off. (Not to take anything away from their correct thinking).