MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Fun times ahead

Discussion started by John Manetta 2 years ago

Hey guys, it's John Manetta, (AKA-John M). 

About three and a half weeks ago it became apparent that ~2/12-2/21 was going to be an interesting period, (if you like frigid cold and snow that is).  I couldn't post this because I was in the hospital and didn't have a computer or a new phone yet.  Several days back I posted that 2/14-2/21 was the time to watch for severe cold and good chances at significant snow and lastly, a chance to make up for our snow deficet with a major storm.  I further mentioned that I expected a period of -EPO/+PNA/-NAO for a time during that period.  I continue to believe that this will be the case. 

 

When I spoke of frigid cold, I was thinking that it would be the coldest air of the season and equal or surpass the coldest days of last Winter.  I continue to believe that to be the case. 

 

I will go into more details on this soon, (probably tomorrow), but I think that we have a better than 65% chance at seeing at least one MECS. 

 

A buddy sent me links to pages with mets that are on the same wavelength of my thinking...this is no surprise as the severe cold/snow chances for the region could easily be seen from far off.  (Not to take anything away from their correct thinking). 

 

 

 

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John Manetta
John Manetta
"Back-end snow" is a rarity in this region.

Thank you for the compliments.
2 years ago
ActionPhilosopher
ActionPhilosopher
John, I appreciate the effort you put into your forecasts. Thank you for all you and the rest of the pros do on this site. I sorry for the backlash you are getting from others. I learn from you, Rob, Dean and others.

I have an odd degree of concern about this weekend due to the crazy shift in the jet and potential for snow across the area due to the storm that's coming through to the north. In your opinion, what are the chances for a back-end snow event?? Is the storm too far away?
2 years ago
mace2
mace2
your response is as expected. enjoy blogging by yourself here. goodbye LWB
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
mace2: You're wrong about one thing that you said, I am not always correct...I made one forecasting error over the past 3 Winters, (3/6/13). Go to the archive site and look if you want, if you don't, than ignore my posts. If you think my "quoting timeframes," is an issue, again, ignore me. On 11/12/13 I forecasted a period of snow to occur between 12/4 and 12/20, (stopping on the 20th because I expected a big warm-up which occurred a couple of days later). Well in Montgomery county and several others, it snowed on the 8th/10th/12th/14th and 17th....in PHL, it snowed on the 8th/10th/14th and 17th. You say I pat myself on the back and occasionally I do, but if you can do what I do, than I'll shut-up, but it's clear that you can't. You are quite rude and make LWB, which many learn from...a bad place. Gooday.
2 years ago
mace2
mace2
John, some constructive criticism for you. Please stop with the insistent "potential was obvious ~3 weeks ago, (if you really did your "homework")" and stop quoting yourself in your many blogs. We get it, you are always correct. You even felt the need to put an actual date next to your last forecasting mistake. Personally,it makes your blogs unreadable to me. You are constantly patting yourself on the back and it's obnoxious.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
You're welcome but there's no need to thank me ajb.
2 years ago
ajb
ajb
Thanks for the explanation JMWX on the MECS and the rest, I actually figured out MECS today while I was driving but the other ones: HECS & SECS I didn't know...
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
The coldest air of the season is on it's way soon....people that know me know that I don't forecast completely based on guidance models, (actually, I use them last after my own thinking), but when everything looks that way AND the guidance predicts it.....well than you can be confident of the of the outcome.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
Beaches; I'm sorry if my last post was offending to you.....I just don't see the harm in us all posting in both places. I will check out the group , which I'm sure has great discussion, but why not have great weather discussions in both places....I mean people that are lurkers will probably contribute here making it even better.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
Beaches, please don't take offense to this but it takes me 2-4 hours per day to do what I do.....from analyzing sub-surface SST's all the way up to the stratosphere, to solar activity and interpreting guidance models and more. That said, PLEASE DON'T POST STUFF LIKE THIS ON MY BLOGS AS IT DETRACTS FROM THE WEATHER DISCUSSION/INFORMATION.
THANKS.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
Soon if have to go for a couple of hours, but I'll be back pretty soon to answer questions and forecast.
It was great talking to you guys.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
ajb, SECS=significant East coast snowstorm/storm...MECS=major East coast snowstorm/storm...HECS=historic East coast snowstorm/storm
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
sweitskier: I'll check it out and MAY post on both, but this is where I'll be posting/blogging for the rest of the Winter.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
SECS is an acronym that stands for "significant East coast snowstorm"
2 years ago
ajb
ajb
Sorry to say I don't know what "SECS" stands for...Can someone explain?
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
SNOWFALL100 AKA Bobby...of course I remember you. Please tell everyone over on that page/group that I'm back and to please get something going here....I mean if we can have great discussions on the site what harm is there in that? You don't have to if you don't want to, but this is where I'll be posting/forecasting, for now. At any rate it's great to reply to a post from you and ajb and the others. Best of luck. I hope to talk to you soon.

JM
2 years ago
sweitskier
sweitskier
John here's the link for weather2015- worth your while to check out! Much better functioning site! Glad your back and well! m.facebook.com/groups/…
2 years ago
Snowhope
Snowhope
Hey John M, great to see you back. Anyway it is Snowhope97/Snowfall100 not sure if you remember me but a majority of the members moved to a Facebook group named Weather 2015. It would be great if you could join the rest of us in the group So you can spread your knowledge of weather and join in our great duscussions.

Thanks Snowhope
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
By the way, I know that this a long way off but: 3/1-3/17 is looking interesting. (to me anyway)
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
Well, you're talking about the surface. I'm not saying that there definitely won't be a short period of virga, but at this point there is a chance we may see more than currently indicated and once it starts precipitating the air will moisten. Then again, I've already outlined a period for real threats.
2 years ago
SnowKat
SnowKat
Saturday looks good but "mind the gap." The gap between temp and dewpoint says "dry, dry, dry" and that means we might lose a lot to evaporation. We'll see how things progress in the coming days I suppose.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
Hey ajb, thank you. Yes, everything went well. This potential was obvious ~3 weeks ago, (if you really did your "homework"). I am a little "gun shy" because my last Winter season forecasting error was 3/6/13 but I am forecasting PHL to end up surpassing average. I will detail this more in the coming days. I will also say this, I doubt we end this season without at least a SECS.
2 years ago
ajb
ajb
Hi John M...Hope you had a full recovery from your hospital stay...I've been looking at some other forecasts and they do show extreme cold next week with some good storm potential...I'm not an expert in forecasting by any stretch but I enjoy snow and watching the forecasting, let's keep our fingers crossed you're onto something for the next several weeks.
2 years ago
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