MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

Another long forecast late season snow event.

Discussion started by John Manetta 2 years ago

It's John Manetta, A.K.A. John M. or JM;

 

Hey guys,

 

Our current situation is due to transient blocking from our last system, -EPO/+PNA, NE winds, vertical velocity/omega at the right levels, long forecast pressure falls near the VA capes.  Now all of this lift will lead to subsidence for other areas, so if you are a snow lover, don't panic if you get a little break.  I still like my forecast of 3-5"  1.5-3.5" for the PHL airport, (really across the river in NJ but whatever haha) 

 

The thing is, with enough VV/omega in the right areas and low pressure there long enough I may have only my second Winter forecast bust in ~5 years.  Now yeah it'll only be by a couple of inches, but thats a bust, we'll see, I like my forecast and am not changing it.  I know that some areas will go to the 6" range, so that an inch off but it's off, whatever, if I bust low on a snow event at the end onf March I am about even on weather pride and weather love, haha.

 

 

The pressures are currently falling at the VA capes, of course, and our low is forming, which will bring all of the drier air in back from the NW as it strengthens, so for the Delaware Valley, the next few hours are everything. I STILL LIKE MY FORECAST FROM A LONG TIME AGO and heres why, VV/omega induced subsidence in other areas, NW drying out later as the low pulls off....AND accumulations on grass are nice but don't count, the snowboard accums count.  I'm liking it so far.

 

I know there are no graphics, but the point is, the two biggest storms in March, By the way, I have an archived period of interest of 3/1-3/17 BAM....that is weatherpride not conceit, if some take it that way, I apologize, but that's just me and has been for many years.

 

Thanks for reading,

 

JM

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John Manetta
John Manetta
ajb: The Mt.Holly NOAA site and by the way I was about an inch off, just going by memory.
2 years ago
ajb
ajb
jmwx, Thanks for the comeback...Where exactly do you find specific data like current seasonal snowfall totals? Someone I believe on this site suggested for me to check on Weatherunderground, lots of stats, but I've been trying all winter to find what snow totals were as winter progressed but I couldn't seem to find them there...do you know where I should go for that kind of info??
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
From me below, I should clarify and this is of course archived, that the ~ prior thing for 3/1-3/17 was a month and a few days BEFORE 3/1.......that's important for newcomers/learners to understand that periods of interest can be accurately forecast from long out, on this very site I have done that many times with zero errors...#weatherpride, haha

jmwx

That 3/1-3/17 th
ing goes back about a month and a few weeks by the way, "just sayin"
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
ajb...PHL is at ~28"
2 years ago
ajb
ajb
Including this storm, what is Philadelphia up to now for this winter?
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
I wrote on this very site that over-all climate changes, the 30's to 50's were warm, the 60s-70's cold, the 80's-90's warm...my point is and I have said this many times, if you look at yearly snow totals for PHL, Upton NY etc. You'll see that we are in a globally snowy pattern that will need something huge to change it. Arctic Volcanism is not out helping change anything by the way.
2 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
That 3/1-3/17 thing goes back about a month and a few weeks by the way, "just sayin"
2 years ago
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