MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

*April pattern change likely to bring more sustained warmth to the Mid-Atlantic, rains to California and the Southwest US, and a sharp increase in severe weather to the Plains/Midwest/Ohio Valley*

Discussion started by Paul Dorian 2 years ago

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Discussion

Overview
The end of winter in the Mid-Atlantic region may be finally at hand. For several weeks now, the overall upper-level pattern has featured a ridge of high pressure along the west coast of North America and a trough of low pressure in the northeastern US. This pattern has brought about sustained colder-than-normal weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for the past couple of months, warmer and drier-than-normal weather for the western US, and it has helped to suppress severe weather activity in the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. In fact, the tornado season is off to an historically low start as we approach the end of March. All of this should begin to change over the next week or so as there will likely be a flip in the overall pattern with an upper-level trough forming in the western US and an upper-level ridge developing in the northeastern part of the country. Indeed, this upcoming upper-level pattern flip will have weather implications across the entire nation for much of the spring season.

Mid-Atlantic warm up
The latest GFS Ensemble computer forecast model run for the 500 millibar height anomalies (above) shows a reversal of positions for the ridge and trough in the US between tomorrow and a week later on April 7th. Other computer forecast models generally agree with this potential pattern flip including the European (not shown) and Canadian (shown below). This change in positions of upper-level features will have serious implications on the overall flow of air across the entire US with an increasing southwesterly flow pumping milder air in the Mid-Atlantic region. This southwesterly flow of air should result in above-normal temperatures on a more sustained basis than recent weeks in the Mid-Atlantic region beginning in the next week or so.

California drought
The flip of upper-level systems from ridge-to-trough out in the western US is quite likely going to open the door for more rainfall in the Southwest US and this should include California which has been suffering through a long-term drought. The upcoming change in the overall weather pattern should allow for more eastward penetration of Pacific Ocean moisture into the western US and this should help alleviate the drought situation during much of the spring season.

Threat for severe weather/tornadoes
Finally, in addition to the warm up in the Mid-Atlantic region and the potential additional rainfall in the southwestern US, the increasing southwesterly flow of air in the eastern half of the nation will pump moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. This influx of moist air has been one important missing ingredient so far this spring in terms of the development of severe weather and tornadoes. Unfortunately, the addition of more humid and warmer air into the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley will likely result in a quick ramp up of severe weather and tornado activity that could take us from early-to-mid April into the month of May.

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Paul Dorian/Meteorologist

Vencore, Inc. (formerly The SI Organization)

VencoreWeather.com now on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and liveweatherblogs.com

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John Manetta
John Manetta
Hey, Paul it's John Manetta. I have been publicly speaking of a pattern break around the 17th/18th and a long explanation as to why, which is basically very similar to your post, so there's no reason to repeat it. I also said two other things, one is the there will be an early start to severe wx season, and to the deep South and upper mid-West, look out. The other thing and this goes back weeks is, 80 at PHL by the end of April, book it haha.. Great post and it's good to know that there are now a few of us on the same page with this.
2 years ago
toNY
toNY
My spring and summer outlook
2 years ago
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