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My March outlook

Discussion started by cwwright 3 years ago

Hey everyone here is a look at my outlook for March for the east coast , 


 


There are key signals that I look at for determining a month outlook the MJO, NAO, PNA, and AO and EPO.


The first would be the MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation). As of Friday 2/21  the MJO is has started to enter phase 7 as shown in the figure below.


outlookmarch2222014


 


 


 


 


 


 As the days progress into next week and the first days of March the MJO is forecasted to pulse rapidly through phase 7, and head into phase 8. This forecast ends during the first week of March. I believe that the MJO phase will continue into phase one during the month of March


outlookmarch2222014gfs


 


 


 


 When the MJO is forecasted to go into phase eight and one climatology would suggest that the east coast would experience below average temperatures for the east coast as shown in the figure below.


outlookmarch2222014temperature


 


 


 


 In terms of precipitation phase eight and one as climatology would have it would suggest that precipitation will be average to below average for the east coast from northern New England to Virginia as shown from the figure below.


outlookmarck2222014precipitation


 


 


Do the rest of the signals agree? First, Let’s check the NAO. The NAO is currently positive as shown by the figure below.


marchoutlook2222014nao


 


 


A negative NAO is typical to bring a trough into the east coast, and supply cold temperatures. You can clearly see that the NAO is forecasted to be positive, for at least the first 15 days of March which would bring the likelihood of a ridge into the east coast.


Next is the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern)


The PNA is currently positive as shown by the figure below


marchoutlook2222014pna


 


 


 


 A positive PNA is typical to bring cold temperatures to the East Coast of the United States with the West Coast enjoying above normal temperatures. You can clearly see that the PNA is forecasted to stay neutral/positive for at least the first 15 days of March which would bring the likelihood of a trough along the east coast.


 


The next and final signal I look at is the AO or Arctic Oscillation. The AO is currently positive and is forecasted to dip negative, and then slightly rise to neutral values, and looks to stay neutral/slightly negative for at least the first 15 days of March.


marchoutlook2222014ao


 


 


 


A negative AO typically brings colder temperatures to the east coast of the United States as shown by this figure below, and you can see that with the AO heading positive by mid-month with the image above that its going to be hard to get below average temperatures into the United States.


AO Negative 2


 


Another  signal that I look is the EPO(Eastern Pacific Oscillation). The ridging in the state of Alaska(-EPO) has been strong all winter long, and looks to be in a dominate state again for at least the first two weeks into the month of March.


marchoutlook2222014-epo


 


 


 


So, with all the signals covered I think that the month of March will be average to slightly below average in terms of temperatures for the East Coast giving the current mjo state and the EPO/PNA configuration going right along with climatology, and average to slightly above in terms of precipitation against as climatology, because of the strong link between the -EPO/+PNA which would increase the likelihood of a trough along the east coast signaling wetter conditions.


 


 


 


 


Images are courtesy of


http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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