Quick update on Joaquin

Discussion started by John Manetta 3 years ago

Alright everyone, this will be fast but there will be more later/overnight.  I wanted to write two blogs today by evening, and detailed ones, however the synoptics and guidance have combined to make things even more complicated than expected, (and that's saying something)...that said, a much more detailed blog will be up by morning.  So here's the fast update:

1.  Every model that is used for forecasts such is this is going with a U.S. landfall, the ECMWF, A.K.A. the Euro, isn't on its operational, but its ensemble is, ~35% of it's 51 member ensemble, the rest of the members are non-landfall for now.  The reason for the ECMWF operational and ensemble members that are out to sea is that the model brings the hurricane farther south, and has the low heights East of the hurricane into the central Atlantic, with high heights North of that.  There is more to this, of course but I need to analyze even more than we all have already to really get into this.  The ECMWF out to sea option is a very plausable scenario, however, I currently find it unlikely, many of even it's ensembal members also do, but it could happen. 

2.  Almost every other model is a landfall on the East coast as of now.

3.  The NHC official forecast track is East of the current guidance envelope in deference to the ECMWF. 

4.  The computer guidance has shifted South overall, do not be fooled into thinking that there would not be major impacts from the landfall point Northward up the East coast and well inland.  And, do not be surprised to see the center of the guidance envelope oscillate Northward and Southward in a pattern until more reliable guidance is available.  To that end, the 00Z and 12Z model data is considered more reliable due to the fact that upper air data from the weather balloon network is ingested into it's initialization data, something I have said for years here...that's why the other two predictions from the U.S. models at 6Z and 18Z are less reliable.  Well, from this point forward, as I explained to many was likely, NOAA will be releasing balloons in the Eastern U.S. for upper air data to be ingested into the computer guidance at 6Z and 18Z as well and recon will release dropsondes into the atmosphere around the hurricane, this, in conjunction with the dropsondes and observations within the hurricane will make guidance more reliable from this point forward...tonight will tell us a lot, but NOT anywhere near everthing...but much more.

5.  The hurricane is currently intensifying very fast and will be a major hurricane tonight and the stronger the hurricane, the stronger the block, that said, also the stronger the barolclinic forcing from the trough, (thus the Southern adjustment in the earlier guidance).  00Z guidance will be out soon but I have to run for a few minutes, but will post what the 00Z guidance adjustements were in the comment section on this blog. 

6.  Again, do not focus on the exact track, if this makes landfall on the East coast which currently appears likely, the hurricane will become a powerful hybrid causing its windfield to expand tremendously and with so much rainfall ahead of it, flooding and power outages would be widespread, the pressure gradient would cause bad coastal flooding, (how severe we'll know soon enough), inland small stream/creek/river flooding will be a major problem even if it does not make landfall...also, if it were to make landfall in South/North Carolina, much of the individual guidance members per 18Z, draw the hurricane inland in the Southeast where it would expand due to extratropical transition processing and guide it inward and Northward thus putting the major cities of the SE and Mid-Atlantic on the more powerful Eastern side of the storm, with areas that are at and NW of the fall line, meaning that they are at higher elevations West of the coastal plain seeing stronger sustained winds than inland areas that are at or just above sea level...even then, winds would be very gusty even without that scenario occuring, at the coast sustained tropical storm force winds would occur, even with the Southern solution, (the Carolinas), sorry for the run-on sentences but I'm in a bit of a rush until later tonight.    

7.  Again there is a LOT of horrible information regarding this situation out there in many, many other places, not all but a lot, so take care to get your information from here where you will be kept updated on the latest but always defer to the NHC and local NWS forecasts, which of course you will be able to see here along with our forecasts. 

8.  More to come later, tonight will be telling. 

9.  Hurricane watches may be required for portions of the U.S. East coast as soon as tommorrow, (per the NHC).



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John Manetta
John Manetta
Thank you DownTown, I truly appreciate your kind words and after more analysis, some tums and some time, I will go into greater detail in my afternoon/early evening blog, in terms of the new forecast and the possibilities and why.
P.S. Stay around for the Winter, among the award winning forecasters we have writing forecasts here on the site, I am proud to say that I have 1 error during the Winter in SE PA going back to the the 10/11 Winter....a rushed forecast on 3/6/13, (which is no excuse and everyone else getting it wrong is no comfort, as I'm sure it is not for any forecaster that is proud of their accomplishments, which we all are on here). Again, thank you for the compliment and keep replying when you can, the more replies the more others will and the more people will do the same, getting a great discussion going on the blogs, thus allowing the amazingly experienced and award winning forecasters to answer questions and enlighten all.
3 years ago
Hey JM -

Just a quick note to say thanks for taking the time to keep us posted here. I see your (and Dean's) updates, and hardly ever see a comment. Your work is appreciated and valuable.

Thanks again!
3 years ago
John Manetta
John Manetta
Really quickly, before I start on the overnight update...as I wrote in the above blog there was an oscillation that occurred, this time Northward on the guidance, (GFS op, UKMET) with the GFS operational striking our region after hooking back toward the coast and it's ensemble mean shows a much farther South solution, averaging the two would bring the hurricane close to us...however I have heard that other forecasters are stating, and rightfully so....the GFS op changing so drastically in one run is cause to be extremely suspicious. Then again if the ECMWF op comes in soon with a similar run as its last. It just causes even more headaches, especially because there was so much extra data this run.
3 years ago

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