NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT

UPDATE 6 pm 3/12-3/13 storm threat

Discussion started by cwwright 4 years ago

Long range global models have been hinting at a possible winter type event to impact the region mid to late week next week.

 

GFS

 

EURO

 

There are a couple of positive teleconnections that make this storm a possibility.

 

1) PNA(Pacific/North American Pattern)

During the time frame of this storm the PNA will be positive which both helps a trough to be in place along the east coast, and the phasing of the northern and southern energy streams.

 

 

 

2) MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation)

Currently the mjo is in a favorable phase(phase 8) for cold along the east coast, and storm potential.

 

CPC Version of the WH MJO Index                       

 

 

 

 

The only teleconnection that I am worried about is the state of the NAO. The NAO is currently positive which could over power the current state of the PNA, and allow for a development of a southeast ridge which would cause the storm to cut, and hinder wintery precipitation.

 

 

At this point it is way too early to nail down temperature and precipitation types with this event. Just know that a good size storm is in the cards for next week. 

 

Stay tuned for update on this potential threat.

 

 

 

 

You need to be a member of this group before you can participate in this blog.
Powered by JomSocial

 EXTREME WINTER WEATHER