Pre Hurricane Outlook Information. What will go into our outlook

Discussion started by Dean D Davison 1 year ago

Good Morning Weather Fans,

We are going to discuss as well as show graphics on what we are looking at for our 2016 Hurricane Outlook.First thing we look for is the ENSO.Well we are going from our strongest el nino in a long time into a La Nina for the upcoming seasons. As we know the Atlantic Hurricane Season is more active in a La Nina phase due to less shear near the gulf and east coast. If you look at the past El Nino Years we have had some very strong shear and dry siharran dust which killed the hurricanes and tropical development off. This year we will see the warm water in our normal areas for development and likely less shear especially as we head into the July August time frame. If Patterns continue the East Coast will need o be on the lookout due to the placement of the bermuda high. All we will need is the placement of the high just west of bermudsa and a low pressure system moving from the ohio valley into the east coast to drag the storm into the carolinas or virginia. We also have to be aware of the sandy type set up. I feel due to the projected ENSO we may have to be on the lookout especially on the east coast. Now i will not throw the gulf out because anything that gets into the gulfwarm water amd light shear the areas along the gulf is also a hot spot. I feel we will see a slightly above normal hurricane season. We will come up with actual numbers in the next month or so when we release the official outlook. The ENSO has been the sbiggest sign but some of the patterns of the MJO wil allow stronger times of hurricane develop,ent . We will have our offical outlook out soon

 

Dean D Davison

\Meteorolotgist

The Weather Pros

 

 

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