Does Hurricane Hermine stall off the NY NJ DE MD RI Coast? (Big Beach Flooding?)

Discussion started by robweather 11 months ago

Hurricane Hermine is about to make landfall in the panhandle of Florida with category 1 winds, flooding and yes tornadoes throughout the state. The flooding inland will spread into Georgia and the Carolinas before heading back out to sea via VA/NC. After that the forecast becomes a bit dicey on where the storm may go and perhaps stall. This stall has to be watched esp. along the NJ coast due to the now replaced New Jersey beaches and sand bars just offshore.

HERMINE

So if Hermine stalls or comes to a slow crawl this would be later Saturday to Monday maybe Tuesday and as you see the beaches could take a drawn out pounding with 6 to maybe 8 high tide cycle flooding on the back bays and coastal areas of NY NJ DE MD. 

Screen Shot 2016 09 01 at 10.16.56 PM

The map above shows the GFS model run for Saturday/Sunday and it could be nasty right along the coast with the main problem in the way of tidal flooding.

STALL

The main impact for coastal flooding would be from Cape May NJ to Nantucket and the focus would be the Jersey shore. The inland areas of PA DE and NJ may see little rain over the weekend with a sharp cut off of rain near the coast. 

DOES THE STORM RE-DEVELOP? FEEL THE WARMTH!

The waters of the coast of NJ DE MD to NY RI have been some of the warmest ever and this is a big reason the storm may get stronger and bigger this weekend. In fact the ocean has been so warm that mass fish kills have been reported in New Jersey. See the big wave potential below and yeah that could mean a pounding in NY NJ and maybe DE.

Screen Shot 2016 09 01 at 10.35.02 PM

If this storm gets bigger we could see 20 feet waves just offshore, and like a smaller version of Sandy had could really bring some issues to New Jersey all the way up the coast. It's really up to the position and size of the high pressure in New England and Canada this weekend. That will act as a block like snowstorms do as nor'easters in the winter. Ya gotta have the HIGH to get the storm to slow and bring bigger snow in the winter and heavier rain and wind in the Summer and Fall with these storms.Screen Shot 2016 09 01 at 10.33.21 PM For now the impact will vary depending on where you live. Here is a quick breakdown of what to expect as of tonight's updates, weather models and position of the hurricane.

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NJ COAST

--Tidal Flooding Saturday night to Monday night

--Rainfall over 1.50" (Some Coastal Flooding from Rain possible)

--Winds to 50mph at the coast, up to 35mph inland at times

—No Tornadoes or severe weather

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NJ INLAND

--Spotty Showers and a storm Sunday/Monday

--Winds to 30mph

—No Severe Weather

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DELAWARE BEACHES

--Tidal Flooding Friday and Saturday

--Blowout Tides possible Sunday and Monday

--On and Off Showers Saturday, maybe Sunday

—No Severe Weather or Rain Flooding

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DELAWARE INLAND

Spotty Showers Sunday and or Monday

No Flooding Expected, No high winds

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PENNSYLVANIA Philly to the Lehigh Valley

--Dry most of the weekend

--Sct Showers on Sunday

—Winds to 25mph higher elevations

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NYC METRO

--Coastal Flooding possible Sunday/Monday

--Rainfall to 1.00" esp beaches and coast

—Sct Showers Sunday and Monday

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NY LONG ISLAND

--Coastal Flooding Sunday and Monday Possible

--Rainfall over 1.00" Possible

—Winds to 40mph at the beaches

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