Hermine will Crawl…The beaches will Fall (Long Tidal Flooding Possible)

Discussion started by robweather 11 months ago

BLOG SONG....

New Divide by Linkin Park...The divide of weather from the beaches vs. inland PA NJ DE MD NY

Lyrics...I remember black skies lightning all around me...i remember each squall as time began to blur...Like a startling sign that Hermine had finally found me...

 

Hermine is heading to the open waters as now a "extra tropical" system or a mini Sandy. I use the Sandy-like term because it has some cold and warm core structure but it leans to the tropical side this time of year vs. late October for Sandy. This will be a long drawn out event for the beaches the next 4 days and perhaps 5 days if the storm stays even longer. If you not at the beaches or within 20 miles of them well it's not all that bad of a weekend for you. The storm will be mainly near the coast for rain and wind, with the high tide storm surge the main issue of this storm.

Screen Shot 2016 09 03 at 11.35.48 AM

Hermine is projected to stay pretty far offshore but due to the long period of high tide potential flooding this makes for bigger event vs. the actual track itself. That "H" you see is the projected hurricane status from the National Hurricane Center for Sunday and Monday offshore. We don't have any real steering currents for this system so the storm is kinda like putting your car in neutral and let it coast along the road a bit the next few days. 

Screen Shot 2016 09 03 at 12.28.23 PM

DELAWARE/MARYLAND BEACHES FEEL IT ALREADY

The beaches of Delaware and Maryland this morning have already seen a few tropical squalls of rain and wind along with a rising tide and beach erosion. The pic below is from my brother Sal at Rehoboth Beach DE this morning before high tide. If you have been to Rehoboth you know they have a very short beach vs New Jersey and it does not take much to get the ocean up near the boardwalk with a storm like this.

Screen Shot 2016 09 03 at 11.47.32 AM

HERE IS THE FORECAST FOR THE DELAWARE & MARYLAND BEACHES

Rain Squalls on and off today and tomorrow, some with heavy rain and winds to 45mph in spots. The tidal surge problem is an issue later tonight but mostly tomorrow into Monday morning. The storm will be a bit harder on Delaware this time due to the long period of swells and a different track vs,. Sandy a few years back which was more of a blow out tide for Delaware and Maryland. Does The March of 1962 Nor'easters ring a bell to some. It could be like that for a bit in Delaware tonight into Labor Day. Lets hope this storm stays just enough offshore.

HIGHS TIDES

10:01PM TONIGHT

10:20AM SUNDAY

10:40PM SUNDAY (Critical Tide)

11:01AM LABOR DAY (Critical Tide)

11:20PM LABOR DAY (Could be the worst high Tide)

11:43AM TUESDAY

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THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES 

New Jersey will once get hit with repeated high tidal flooding but unlike Sandy this will be a longer drawn out period. The good news is this will not be nearly as bad as Sandy due to the storm staying much offshore. The high winds over 50mph will be confined over the open waters and rainfall flooding confined to some low lying beach areas. Like Delaware the issue it the high tide tidal flooding over and over for several days. How much water piles in the back bays is the key to NJ and the damage. The oceanfront actually may do much better vs. the back bays due to the long projected storm for New Jersey.

HIGH TIDES-Barnegat NJ

9:51pm MInor/Moderate Flooding

SUN 10:22am Minor/Moderate Flooding

SUN 10:32pm Moderate Flooding

MON 11:03am Moderate Flooding

MON 11:15pm Moderate/Severe Flooding

TUE 11:36am Moderate Flooding

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Screen Shot 2016 09 03 at 12.33.40 PM

THIS IS THE POST FROM THE NHC AS OF 11AM THIS MORNING. UPDATES EVERY 3 HRS

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If you live 20-30 miles away from the coast in NJ, PA, DE well you have clouds, some breeze at times and maybe a scattered shower or so this weekend. It's nothing like Sandy for inland locations, not even close. This is due to the storm staying well offshore and a track away from PA NJ DE inland.

PHILLY METRO 

Showers Sunday night into Monday Morning .33" Rainfall

LEHIGH VALLEY

A few Showers Monday Afternoon .13" Rainfall

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INLAND NEW JERSEY

Showers Sunday night into Monday Morning .32"

CENTRAL DELAWARE

Showers and a few Squalls Sunday/Monday .68"

NORTHERN DELAWARE

Showers/Squalls Sunday Evening to Monday AM .44"

NEW YORK CITY METRO

Showers and Squalls Monday Afternoon and Night .55"

JERSEY SHORE 

Showers and storms later today into Monday 1.00"+ of Rain

DELAWARE BEACHES

Showers and Squalls Today and tomorrow 1.00"+ of Rain

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POCONOS

Monday Night Shower...Who is Hermine. It's a decent weekend.

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HEY ALL...

Get the winter outlook for your hometown at

www.thewinterforecast.com

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