We are still in the heart of the hurricane season and with and active season so far the odds are a hurricane will hit the U.S. coast again before October is through. The question becomes will it be next week? It's hard to nail down an exact track this far out so rather then make a prediction we'll take a look at what is out there now and some of the potential projections.
Typically in early October you start to get more of a westerly flow above the Carolinas and that can push out the potential for a storm to hit or make landfall north of Hatteras not as likely. Like Super Storm Sandy on occasion we can get a storm to turn in as it heads up the coast, but that's more rare than occasional.
We can look to the mid and long range models at this point for some possible clues to next week. The GFS has a nasty storm that could even plow into NYC but as a caution...this is over a week away right now. Many things would have to hold on the GFS for flooding and possible hurricane hit from VA to NY so it's a watch and wait on the GFS but yeah we see ya.
These models above are for next Thurday and Friday October 6-7th. North Carolina could take the hit between Hatteras and Wilmington NC before bringing flooding rains and winds up the coast. The High or blue H you see near Maine would suck in additional Atlantic moisture to make for 3-7" of rain from VA to NY and maybe even Southern New England.
The European model does not show the same track as the GFS and if anything this model shows a hurricane landfall near Miami but it's 12 days away from now. The pattern does show an increase in tropical activity but it's not sure where and when it might hit at this point.
MY FORECAST AT THIS POINT...
We need to watch the pattern and tropics the next few weeks, the Atlantic and Gulf are rather warm and do show a favorable run for a tropical system or even a hurricane from Florida to New England.
The GFS has two runs in a row of a Carolina to a Flooding East Coast storm but it's just too early to nail anything down at this point. Once the Euro 240hr maps (10 Days out) come into play we'll have a better look along with the suite of tropical models. Stay tuned as we say in the media biz.