NHC OFFICIAL UPDATE
Powerful Hurricane Matthew (Category 4) will split the uprights between Jamaica and Haiti and head into the Bahamas by Tuesday night. The impact on Florida as of now would be breezy along the East Coast of Florida with some beach erosion and dangerous surf. The track of Matthew in the Bahamas is east of Nassau so they do not take a direct hit.
THE STORM ITSELF
Matthew is a small core storm but has huge potential for damage if it hits over land the next 4 days. Jamaica will get a break at this point due to them being on the western side of the storm known as the weaker side in the Carribean. Haiti has flood issues and that will be a bigger problem vs. wind damage if the storm stays on the current track projection. Once in the Bahamas the greatest impact is the Central Bahmas will lower impact over to Freeport and Nassau at this point. They will not get crushed but will have some heavy rain and wind.
IMPACT ON NORTH CAROLINA TO MAINE
Weather models are just that model guidance not an actual forecast. When a storm is deep in the tropics like Matthew is now the tropical based models (They are built for predicting hurricanes) are better vs. the GFS, NAM and European. It's not to say that the global models like the GFS and EURO are wrong it's just a better track accuracy with the tropical models the next three days. The Europeam model has been great with the big storm the last few years so we'll lean a bit more on that model when looking ahead to later next week vs. the GFS and others.
GFS MODEL JUST IN
The GFS model (US Based) will play off two main weather features on the map this week and they will control the track of the storm from North Carolina and points North and East. Friday morning Matthew will not feel the impact of the Midwest cold front just yet but will have a feel of the fall season high pressure over Nova Scotia to keep it rather cloe to the NC coast near Hatteras. This would be a grazing or a miss for the Outer Banks on Friday afternoon or eveing or just a miss.
Saturday morning the GFS grabs the hurricane and starts to turn it North-Northeast and slowly away from the U.S. coast. The fall season high moves east and becomes less of an impact on the storm but could push a high tidal push of water into NJ DE MD NY for some coastal flooding.
As they say in show buisness "Exit Stage Right" and that is what Matthew will do on the new GFS run. Out to sea and little to no major impact on the East Coast on the new 12z/7am weather model run. This is a shift east from the earlier run that had it on the coast and into NYC and Long Island head on with a big impact on NJ PA DE. Could this change again? Yes it could and the fact the storm is over 5 days impact on NC to ME we still have to watch it but feel the odds lean to a out sea situation 62% vs. 38% major impact on the U.S. coast.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL RUN
As you can see this is also a miss on the reliable European model at this point. We'll get another uodate from this model this afternoon. As I mentioned at the top of the blog this has been a very good model with big storms 5 days away from impact and nailed Sandy and big hurricane Joaquin last fall.
MY FORECAST RIGHT NOW
I call for a miss of the East Coast with a near brush from Wilmington NC to Hatteras. They will get lots of rain and some flooding but not a Category 4 or 5 type of storm. You can thank that Midwest cold front for saving the East Coast at this point. Best chance of rain, some wind and some coastal flooding would be Friday night and Saturday for NC to NY.
FLA EAST COAST
NJ DE NY BEACHES
NEXT UPDATE AFTER
5pm before 7pm
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