NHC OFFICIAL UPDATE
5:00pm Sunday, October 2, 2016
Powerful Hurricane Matthew (Category 4) still looks to hit eastern Cuba and most of Haiti with Category 3 o4 4 power in the 36-48 hours. Haiti is on the worst side of the storm and has mountains that will squeeze out a staggering 20" to 30" and this may become a really disastous flood for Haiti and large loss of life and property from a county that has still never fully recovered from the earthquake a few years back. After Haiti and Cuba get hit the storm will be a little weaker due to the mountains carving the circulation up a bit. Central Bahamas will see a Category three storm by Tuesday night and Wednesday. We still see Florida in the clear from a major impact at this point.
THE STORM ITSELF
Matthew is a small core storm but has huge potential for damage if it hits over land the next 4 days. Jamaica will get a break at this point due to them being on the western side of the storm known as the weaker side in the Carribean. Jamaican Mtns will also add some dry air into the storm so that may help with the huge flooding problem Haiti may face in a few days.
IMPACT ON NORTH CAROLINA TO MAINE
As you can see the models are pretty close on taking the storm east of Florida and put the brakes on right before North Carolina. The storm may stall where I put the hurricane icon east of Jacksonville FL and wait or wobble. After that the cold front in blue acts as a sweeper and pushes the storm east and well offshore. This is good news for the East Coast later this week with lowering trend for an east coast hit north of Virginia Beach.
GFS MODEL 12z/8am this morning. Updates 10pm
The GFS model (US Based) will play off two main weather features on the map this week and they will control the track of the storm from North Carolina and points North and East. Friday morning Matthew will not feel the impact of the Midwest cold front just yet but will have a feel of the fall season high pressure over Nova Scotia to keep it rather cloe to the NC coast near Hatteras. This would be a grazing or a miss for the Outer Banks on Friday afternoon or eveing or just a miss.
Saturday morning the GFS grabs the hurricane and starts to turn it North-Northeast and slowly away from the U.S. coast. The fall season high moves east and becomes less of an impact on the storm but could push a high tidal push of water into NJ DE MD NY for some coastal flooding.
As they say in show buisness "Exit Stage Right" and that is what Matthew will do on the new GFS run. Out to sea and little to no major impact on the East Coast on the new 12z/7am weather model run. This is a shift east from the earlier run that had it on the coast and into NYC and Long Island head on with a big impact on NJ PA DE. Could this change again? Yes it could and the fact the storm is over 5 days impact on NC to ME we still have to watch it but feel the odds lean to a out sea situation 62% vs. 38% major impact on the U.S. coast.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL RUN NEW UPDATE
This "go to" model was very accurate with poweful hurricane Joaquin last year and Sandy a few years back so for several model runs (updates) in a row we have an out to sea storm as of now. Like the GFS above they both slow the storm and wobble it near the NC coast before the FALL COLD FRONT sweeps the storm out to sea.
MY FORECAST RIGHT NOW
No real change from the last update expect we have the GFS and European, National Hurricane Center and other models pretty much on the same page for the track of powerful Matthew. Let's hope the best Haiti with this one because it could be a really bad flooding situetion over there the next few days.
FLA EAST COAST
NJ DE NY BEACHES
NEXT UPDATE AFTER
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