MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW UPDATE: EAST COAST LANDFALL?!?!

Discussion started by JarydMore17 10 months ago

MONDAY OCTOBER 3RD: MATTHEW UPDATE 3PM

12z MODEL SUITE CONVERGING ON A CAROLINA LANDFALL

THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAMMERING HOME ON THE IDEA OF A CAROLINA LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN A POSSIBLE TURN INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE LATEST EURO MODEL RUN IS NOW ON BOARD WITH THE SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA IMPACT, BUT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE, SPARING THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

CURRENT STROM INFORMATION:

Hurricane MATTHEW
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 03, 2016:

Location: 15.9°N 74.9°W
Maximum Winds: 120 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 940 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: 15 NM
 
IR Satellite Image
 
MATTHEW WILL THREATEN LIFE AND PROPERTY IN HATI, JAMAICA, CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BEFORE HEADING EAST OF FLORIDA AND TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.
 
 
 
 
LATEST HURRICANE SPAGHETTI MODELS HAVE MATTHEW HEADING TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THEN NORTHEAST FROM THERE.
 
 
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS HEAVY RAIN FROM DC TO BOSTON, AS MATTHEW ACTUALLY PHASES AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE MAJOR CITIES OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR SATIRDAY INTO SUNDAY.
 
 
 
THE 12Z EURO: SAME IDEA AS GFS, BUT HEADS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THE CAROLINAS, SPARING THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
 
 

MY FORECAST RIGHT NOW

WE ARE STARTING TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE CAROLINAS, BUT WE MUST STILL PROCEED WITH CAUTION AS THE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST, AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF MATTHEW. WE ARE HOWEVER, INCREASING THE ODDS A LITTLE BIT, IN TERMS OF IMPACT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. Let's hope for the best in Haiti and Cuba with this one because it could be a really bad flooding situation over there the next few days.

HIGHEST IMPACT

HAITI

JAMAICA

EASTERN CUBA

CENTRAL BAHAMAS

MODERATE IMPACT

FLA EAST COAST

NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA

MINOR IMPACT

VA NJ DE NY CT MA ME BEACHES

 

NEXT UPDATE AFTER

11pm tonight

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