The real story for areas north of Cape Hatteras is how the cold front plays off or interacts with powerful hurricane Matthew. The GFS model has the storm now closer to the The European model from last night. It takes the storm near Daytona Beach..ride the coast of SC and landfall near Hilton Head SC. After that the storm get near Hatteras and hangs a sharp right out to sea.
THE GFS NEW RUN
THE EUROPEAN MODEL RUN NOW
The actual track is one that plays Florida real close to a hit but the GFS and EURO models take it at or dangerously close spot and it could be a Category 3 or 4 at a Florida landfall and it moves slow with flooding rains.
The Hurricane Center plays the storm close to Fla and up to Wlimington NC. The models ride near the coast but it gets very tough once this storm heads north if it actually does that by the weekend.
This is where the game of the sweeping cold front vs. the nudging High pressure play the positioning game. I still feel this does not have a huge impact on areas north of Virginia Beach but it's not set in stone this far out from the weekend. Florida to South Carolina could have some real problems with this type of storm due to the slow movement and cause for massive flooding. The wind damage may be the hardest from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach.
My Forecast as of now is a major impact for Central Florida esp. along the coast followed by some wind and flooding problems for GA and SC. Everybody north of Virginia Beach has a 38% chance of a major impact from the hurricane as of now with my forecast. Florida has a 71% chance of a major impact from this storm and GA/SC 60% and NC at 61% of impact.