3:25 PM TUESDAY OCT 4 UPDATE: MATTHEW HAS HIS EYES ON THE UNITED STATES

Discussion started by JarydMore17 10 months ago

 

TUESDAY OCT 4TH: MATTHEW

UPDATE 4PM

12z MODELS BRING HURRICANE IMPACTS TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST UP TO GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA, LEAVING THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME RAIN, BUT MINOR IMPACTS. THINGS CAN STILL CHANGE AS WE ALL KNOW, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE YOU AS MATTHEW MAKES ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.

 

CURRENT STROM INFORMATION:

 

Hurricane MATTHEW


As of 12:00 UTC Oct 04, 2016:

Location: 18.5°N 74.3°W
Maximum Winds: 125 kt (145MPH) Gusts: 150 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 940 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: 15 NM

IR Satellite Image
 
MATTHEW IS CAUSING ALL KINDS OF DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION IN PART OF HATI AND JAMAICA AS WE SPEAK, WITH HIGH WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS. MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN THIS REGION.
 
 
 
NEW OFFICIAL NATIONAL
 
HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST:
 
NHC Forecast Track
 
 
LATEST HURRICANE SPAGHETTI MODELS ARE REALLY HAMMERING HOME THE IDEA THAT MATTHEW TAKES A TRACK JUST OFF THE SHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THEN A POSSIBLE LANDFALL AROUND CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. FROM THERE THE TRACK MOVES IN A NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION, WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACT FROM DELAWARE TO NEW ENGLAND, BUT NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT.
 
 
THE 12Z GFS NOW SHOWS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MATTHEW STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE, AS THE STORM CENTER ISELF SCOOTS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
 
 
THE 12Z EURO: IS RUNNING LATE TODAY, SO WE WILL HAVE AN UPDATE ON THAT A LITTLE LATER ON. HERE IS A LOOK AT LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUN COURTESY OF ROB GUARIANO. EDIT: NEW EURO JUST IN MOVES EVEN FURTHER WEST SLAMMING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE AS A CAT 4 HURRICANE.
 
EURO 2AM TUES
 
[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
 

MY FORECAST RIGHT NOW

MATTHEW LOOKS TO STAY JUST BARELY OFFSHORE OF EASTERN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY 3 OR 4 HURRICANE. THIS WOULD STILL BRING STORM SURGE AND HIGH WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF FLORIDA. FROM THERE I LIKE THE IDEA OF MATTHEW MAKING A QUICK LANDFALL IN OR AROUND THE CHARLESTON, SC AREA WHICH WOULD WOULD BE A SERIOUS ISSUE FOR THOSE ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. NORTH CAROLINA WOULD THEN BE HIT AS THE STROM STARTS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM FLORIDA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA, SPARING THE NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AND SOME WIND FOR DE NJ PA CT NY MA ME ECT...

HIGHEST IMPACT

HAITI

EASTERN CUBA

BAHAMAS

FLORIDA EAST COAST

SOUTH CAROLINA COAST

NORTH CAROLINA COAST

 

MINOR IMPACT

VA NJ DE NY CT MA ME BEACHES

NEXT UPDATE AFTER

11pm tonight

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