NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT

JOESTRADAMUS: Long Range Active & Chilly (November 20,2016)

Discussion started by Joe Cioffi 6 months ago

Weather Models Long Range Weather Active & Chilly


4indices-2


Long term teleconnection indices are all pointing to (in general) colder than average temperatures and a pattern that is dominated by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. What does that mean? The North Atlantic Oscillation measures pressure changes in the North Atlantic. When the index is negative pressures in the northern latitudes are higher which means cold air and the mean jet stream is (in general) displaced southward into the Eastern United States. This favors temperatures averaging below normal. The index forecast for today shows the index to be negative into the first week of December. We also have a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation index (measures the same concept in the..you guessed it..East Pacific). This also favors a colder look to the overall pattern across North America.


The pattern switch began really about a week ago and it is about to play out going forward. One of the things I think will happen is that we will see weather systems with more frequency moving across the United States. At the very least this could give us opportunities to start cutting the drought stranglehold. The tendency of having below normal temperatures will also mean some snow possibilities going forward however bear in mind that having all this doesn't guarantee anything regarding snow or even rain. Weather systems still need to set up in a way to deliver and that doesn't always occur....READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2016/11/20/weather-models-long-range-weather-active-chilly/

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