Before everyone jumps on the winter is coming soon train, let us right off the bat caution that this is one run of the GFS that shows a cold bullish winter pattern developing over the next 2 weeks once the rain systems of this week are done. WE NEED TO SEE A BUNCH MORE OF THESE GOING FORWARD. We also need to see some sort of CONFIRMATION FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AMONG OTHERS.
First off is the rain for Tuesday-Thursday of this coming week. Everything seems on board for a 2 to 3 inch rainfall over a widespread area. Looking at the models today there seems to be no changes in that regard. Once the two weather systems are done we watch and see what happens going forward.
First off there are major differences in the GFS weather model and Canadian weather model at day 10. Given that the Canadian weather tends to be a bit squirrelly most of the time we will put some weight in the differences but not much. The Canadian model and the GFS model agree (somewhat) on troughing in the west. They also agree (somewhat) on the ridge building over Alaska...READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2016/11/27/gfs-weather-model-goes-wintry/