NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT

JOESTRADAMUS: Long Range Psychotic Models (December 19, 2016)

Discussion started by Joe Cioffi 4 months ago

Joestradamus Takes Long Range View


Getting one's head around the long range has always been a big challenge for JOESTRADAMUS. He is, after all, more of short range kind of guy. At this point he sees out there what seems to be an army of snow weenies in utter despair. Apparently the latest round of long range pontificators has proclaimed everything from winter is over to winter is over for the next 4 weeks to all sorts of other possibilities. It is at this point and after careful examination of today's version of psychotic weather models that one needs to take a step back and look at what is going on.


First off a couple of reminders. First off so far for the month of December most reporting stations in the area are running at or slightly below normal (NYC -1.0) through today. Snowfall for the month is now 3.2 inches which if you divide the snowfall evenly over the course of the month we are about average. More than likely looking ahead at the next 12 days the numbers will probably average slightly above normal so in the end the month might finish even or a little bit above average. As far as snow goes, given what is being shown it doesn't seem like anything of consequence is going to happen through the end of the month unless there is something upstream that we can't see at the moment. In the end we would have had a typical December and certainly nothing like the record warm month of December 2015 with no snow measured and December 2014 which was 3 degrees above average with an inch of snow.


joestradamus


Today's view of the teleconnections don't tell us too much. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation is forecast to trend to neutral to slightly negative beginning this coming....READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2016/12/19/joestradamus-takes-long-range-view/

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jtirico
jtirico
Thank you Joe for all your forecasts! I think I missed my weather calling along time ago. The only positive thing for me after Christmas in Northern Georgia due to the near ENSO Neutral transition is the possibility of one decent snowstorm or two compared to our last 2 years of false alarms. The deeper the future (Polar Vortexes, Jet Streams supplemented with very low latitude Low Pressures systems) that can dive further southward and towards the east, the happier and more excited I become! Joe Tirico
4 months ago
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