There are a couple of things off the bat that we need to bear in mind. First off the day to day process of watching models is grueling and frustrating since there is a tendency in the weather world for people to want instant gratification and that is just not going to happen. Models are going to vary somewhat from run to run and this is just a given We need to keep the focus on the fact that change is occurring and the fact is we really won't know what the end result will be until we get there. Secondly is the fact that one part of the pattern that has changed is that it is more active. Storms from the Pacific jet are marching across the US and at least it is bringing us threats for precipitation on a more frequent basis. The question is whether that part of the change holds if and when the colder part of the pattern kicks in. Finally and most importantly, the pattern change you get may not be the pattern change you want. There is nothing that says it can't be cold and dry, or cold until the storms get here and then it warms up and rains..or anyone of a bunch of other combinations including storms going south, east, west, and north.
All of the indices today are going in a colder and stormier direction for late month. The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is forecast to be negative until further notice....READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/01/17/weather-models-remain-pattern-change-course/