MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

**Active pattern continues…”clipper” late tonight/early Saturday…cold blast Sunday night/Monday to produce powerful winds…storm threat later next week**

Discussion started by Paul Dorian 2 weeks ago

 

12Z GFS surface forecast map for Monday morning with powerful storm off the coast of Maine; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS surface forecast map for Monday morning with powerful storm off the coast of Maine; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC 

Overview
One winter storm is now long gone, but the overall weather pattern remains quite active for the Northeast US and there will be lots to monitor over the next week or so.  First, a clipper system dropping southeast from Canada will bring some light snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic region late tonight and early Saturday.  Second, after some rain on Sunday, a powerful cold front will whip through the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night and winds should intensify to quite strong and potentially damaging levels on Sunday night and Monday.  Finally, there are some early signals for a big storm to form near the east coast later next week which has a lot of potential, but also many questions still to iron out.

Clipper late tonight/early Saturday
A fast-moving clipper system will drop southeast from south-central Canada over the next twelve hours and it’ll likely spread some snow into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Specifically, the NYC metro region is likely to receive a coating to an inch or two from this system and some light snow could extend all the way down into the northern suburbs of Philly by early tomorrow.  New England – still suffering from the yesterday’s blizzard – is likely to receive more significant snow accumulation from this clipper system as it intensifies rapidly off the New England coastline.

12Z GFS forecast map for 250 mb winds showing powerful upper-level jet streak aiding in the explosive intensification of low pressure near Maine and strong winds throughout the Northeast US; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS forecast map for 250 mb winds showing powerful upper-level jet streak aiding in the explosive intensification of low pressure near Maine and strong winds throughout the Northeast US; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Cold blast Sunday night/Monday
Another low pressure system will then slide across Pennsylvania on Sunday bringing rain to areas north of the PA/MD border and showers to areas south of there.  This low pressure system will then head to a position off the New England coastline by late Sunday night and it will intensify explosively aided by a powerful upper-level jet streak at 250 mb.  As a result, the pressure gradient throughout the Northeast US will tighten significantly and winds will become quite powerful on Sunday night and Monday - perhaps even to damaging levels - as colder air pours in from the northwest.  Northern New England will likely receive another round of significant snow (and excessive winds) to go on top of yesterday’s blizzard and tomorrow’s expected snowfall.

12Z (Thursday) Euro forecast map for next Thursday, February 16th, showing deep trough in the eastern US; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z (Thursday) Euro forecast map for next Thursday, February 16th, showing deep trough in the eastern US; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Storm threat later next week
The unfolding upper-level pattern in the medium-term is full of big potential.  A deep upper-level trough will likely form in the eastern US later next week and this could result in a strong storm near the east coast in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame.  It is way too early to tell if this potential system would stay too far off the coast to have an impact around here – as is currently suggested by some computer forecast models – or if it’ll come close enough for an important impact.  Bottom line, stay tuned.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com

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