Good Morning, We are in for a wild weather afternoon on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Severe Weather containing Damaging Winds Hail and tornadoes are likely. We will see storms fire out infront of the squall line which will create 2 distinct issues.
1. Supercells- Storms out in front of the squall line will likely rotate based on the helicity in the atmosphere ( wind energy) We have southern wind low level jet around 60 kts and then westerly winds higher in the atmosphere 500 mb at 120 kts from the west. That turning in the atmosphere plus these below issues scream damaging thunderstorms
Lifted Index -6 CAPE 2000-2500 EHI- Very Strong STP 2.0-3.5 Temps 70s
This equals trouble and Roanoke thru NJ DE PA have the same issues even
2- Squall Line- The quasi linear convective system QLCS will move into the area fro the west and the mountains look not to disturb the line much allowing 60 mph plus winds and spin up tornadoes to form on the line.
Both Situations are bad and I suggest to power up electronics look for food u can do with no power and have a way to receive warnings . This system has only got worse looking in the last 24 hrs and I want everyone to be ready for this storm.
DEAN D DAVISON METEOROLOGIST
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