Over the last several days weather models have been zeroing in on the possibility of another snow threat early next week. Weather models are clearly now zeroing in on a storm developing off the Southeast Coast of the US and heading up the Eastern Seaboard. I think we are at the point now that we can say something is going to happen somewhere from Virginia to New England inclusive. The hows and whys are still in question.
The GFS weather model above has been remarkably consistent for the last 8 model runs. There has been a gradual shift to the left closer to the coast and this means that one at least has to consider the possibility of a coast hugger which would bring rain to coastal areas at some point. But why are models so consistent all of a sudden? Up until now we have been dealing with smaller systems that have been running around. Each has an impact on the other. However when the atmosphere is telegraphing a large system, there are fewer players on the table and therefore the options of different outcomes is reduced. Such is the case here.
Now each model has this deep trough and each model handles things a little differently. The European model and the Canadian model are even deeper (more intense) with the upper feature than the GFS model...READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/03/09/weather-models-zeroing-early-next-week/