While we have the NAM model from earlier today offering the idea of a coast hugger and rain sweeping inland cutting snow amounts down, we also now have today's European model offering a colder solution that would mean snow for just about everyone but it also tracks the surface storm further east which would cut the amounts down! The issue is how the models handle 2 separate streams of energy and how much phasing occurs between the two.
NAM VS EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL ON UPPER AIR PHASING
The question of phasing and how this gets resolved is huge. The NAM model upper air phases the two streams which brings the storm center right on the coast. Today's European keeps both streams separate which keeps things much colder but it also cuts back on total snowfall. The European model literally would mean a 9 to 12 inch snowfall over a much larger area and would keep it all snow for coastal areas. The European effectively caps the upside here if the surface low tracks to the east....READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/03/11/european-weather-model-colder-east/
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