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JOESTRADAMUS: BACKDOORS BLOCKING & SEVERE WEATHER AS SPRING PATTERN TAKES HOLD (MARCH 22, 2017)

Discussion started by Joe Cioffi 4 months ago

Spring Issues Backdoors & Blocking


Spring as we have been noting for the last number of days is not exactly the most stable of seasons. Volatility is always present it is reflected in shots of cold air interrupted by longer and longer warm ups (usually), bouts of severe weather (usually not here) and blocking which can make it gray damp and dismal for days at a time. Such is the case now with the weather pattern moving forward. We are dealing with a shot of very cold air tonight into Thursday before the warm up starts on Friday. The first issue we will be dealing with is a warm front Friday with a few showers ahead of it. If the precipitation comes in fast enough there might be an ice pellet or two in the mix for areas well inland but this is light precipitation and won't last long at all as the bulk of it goes by to our north. Once the warm front goes by it sets up the second issue for Saturday in the form of a backdoor cold front.


SPRING & BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS GFS 2PM SATURDAY


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In the battles between shallow cold air and warm air, usually the cold air wins out and the backdoor fronts drop southward. This makes temperature forecasting for Saturday very difficult. The map above is for 2pm Saturday. It would suggest that areas to the south of the frontal zone will be in the 60s and 70s while to the north it's in the 50s and 40s. You can see how close that boundary is at 2pm. It would certainly suggest that areas like Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, Northeast Pennsylvania and possibly Long Island (always an issue regardless) will be in the cooler air while Southeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey (except the extreme north) and points south will be in the warm air.


SPRING & BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS GFS 2PM SATURDAY TEMPERATURES


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The next issue is Sunday and Monday. Low pressure in the Ohio Valley will move east with some rain. The northeast marine flow will be established so it looks like Sunday will be one of those gray miserable days with a cold rain and temperatures in the 40s.


SPRING AND BLOCKING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GFS JET STREAM MONDAY 3/27/2017


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Blocking sets up in the North Atlantic but it is weak and transitory. This will force weather systems to pass near or just to our south early next week. The first on Sunday into Monday goes by and there is another right behind it and a third is behind that one coming into the west. This will probably lead to frequent chances for rain. Another shot comes in for late Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure heads to the Eastern Lakes and redevelops near or just to our south. The third will follow with more rain later next week. Thankfully there is no cold air around to create any kind of issues for snow and ice, though some areas in Central and Northern New England could see some spring snow from this. Overall it looks like a typical early spring pattern. For parts of the South from Texas to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley it looks like severe weather will be an issue with the first round coming on Friday of this week and more chances next week as these systems cross the US...READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/03/22/spring-issues-backdoors-blocking/

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