As we get closer to the weekend it appears that the rain Sunday looks less impressive on all the weather models today. I think we will still have a rather cloudy dismal day with some rain as low pressure goes by to the south but the weaker profile of the weather system aloft would suggest lighter rain amounts as opposed to anything substantial (over an inch). Today's European weather model illustrates this well.
The system in the southern part of the jet stream is rather potent but what happens is the northern part of the jet stream from Canada bypasses it rather than lifting it up. Animate the gif above and you can see how the northern part of the jet stream completely misses the southern system. Part of it will lift up close enough to put us in clouds and some rain but nothing like what the model was showing a few days ago. There is a suggestion on the European that a second arm in that northern jet could lift up the remaining piece of that trough later Tuesday but this is a very questionable solution. For now we will lay it aside to see how models handle this.