NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT

JOESTRADAMUS: RAIN LATE THIS WEEK BLOCKING BATTLES LONG RANGE (NOVEMBER 26, 2017)

Discussion started by Joe Cioffi 2 weeks ago

Weather Models Battle Over Blocking Strength Long Range

One of the consistent things with weather models in the last few weeks has been the remarkable inconsistency we have seen from model run to model run thanks to the strong North Atlantic Oscillation signal we have been seeing. This has caused models to behave in a rather haphazard fashion for the last several weeks particularly as you go out further in the long range. The block has been east based which favors cold air moving into Europe rather than in the Eastern US. Here cold shots except for 1 have been shallow and short lived. Weather fronts have been weak as a whole. Rainfall has been sorely lacking. This week starts off in that dry pattern with 2 cold fronts that will be moving through. One weak one on Monday keeps it cool for an extra day. Wednesday will be a warm day with highs close to 60 in some places as another front moves through dry. Thursday sees a shot of cool air ahead of a stronger front that approaches and moves through on Friday and from this we will see some rain.

GFS MODEL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CLICK TO ANIMATE

weather models

Weather models have also backed off on developing a low on the cold front to our south and east as the energy aloft is weaker than previously shown. I still don't want to completely give up on the idea of a secondary low developing here and prolonging the rain. Either way there is no cold air to speak of so snow is not an issue nor will it be. Rainfall amounts look to be in the range of a quarter to a half inch in most places with higher amounts to the north.

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