NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT

JOESTRADAMUS: SNOW THREATS NEXT WEEK (JANUARY 25, 2018)

Discussion started by Joe Cioffi 5 months ago

Snow Threats Next Week Anything or Nothing

As if forecasting snow isn't difficult enough we have two situations next week that bear some watching but they are the sorts of systems that are almost impossible to forecast especially the first one for Tuesday. We have a wave coming out of the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico that moves up the coast offshore. We will have rain showers on a frontal boundary Sunday as it moves through. That is a no brainer. Then we will watch the wave of low pressure develop as it moves northeastward. The low might skim the coast with some rain on Monday but will be primarily offshore. The snow comes from the upper air trough that is swinging around to the coast from the Great Lakes.

GFS MODEL FORECAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

snow

The cold air to support snow with the surface low is too far west to make snow. Unless the upper trough is stronger this should not be a worry. However once the upper trough swings around Snow will develop and swing into coastal areas. This is what is known as a Norlun trough.

Norlun Trough: An axis of shifting winds on the NW side of a low. They are known to bring very localized, very heavy bands of snow so that one town gets buried and the next is spared. These monsters are wicked fickle and are very hard to forecast.

The problem with norlun troughs is the last line of that definition..READ MORE AT https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2018/01/25/snow-threats-next-week-anything-nothing/

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