NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT

JOESTRADAMUS: SUPER BOWL SUNDAY SNOW RAIN THREAT (JANUARY 31, 2018)

Discussion started by Joe Cioffi 3 months ago

Super Bowl Sunday Snow Rain Active Pattern Next Week

We seem to be flipping a switch to a more active pattern over the next few weeks. All of this is coinciding with a colder pattern overall but as always with these things they are not perfectly aligned for snow lovers and location may be key. There is a lot of model uncertainty moving ahead as well regarding the strength of cold air which will ebb and flow as each weather system moves along. Once we get past the cold front for Thursday night which does not look like much, we focus our attention on Sunday. Remember that weather models incorrectly were overly warm and aggressive with the system for late Thursday into Friday morning. This will produce a few rain showers that might change to a bit of snow on the back side once the front passes but nothing of consequence is forecast from this except. We will address Thursday night & Friday morning separately on a later post. Much colder air follows for Friday and Saturday which will be mainly dry with below average temperatures especially Saturday morning which will be in the single digits and teens for lows and highs Saturday just in the upper 20s and lower 30s. This sets the table for Sunday.

GFS SUPER BOWL SUNDAY SNOW RAIN CLICK TO ANIMATE

super bowl sunday snow

We will start with the GFS model which shows low pressure moving across the Gulf States and heading right up the coast just offshore. Of the three major weather models the GFS is the warmest. Snow will begin during Sunday midday and then gradually change to rain along coastal areas. However inland it will be a bit of a different story as the snow will last longer before a change to a mix and then rain. Where this is all snow a 3-6"/4-8" event seems reasonable. The GFS model has a well developed low with this which explains the flooding of warm air further north. The flatter Canadian model leads to a colder flatter idea with the low and as a result the mixing/all snow line on this model is further south...READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2018/01/31/super-bowl-sunday-snow-rain-active-pattern-next-week/

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