MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC MID ATLANTIC NY PA NJ DE MD DC

St. Patty's Day - Slider? or Rider?

Discussion started by FreezeMizer 3 years ago

Saturday 3/15

 

12Z runs are underway.  One thing I'm noticing on the NAM is the H5 is really haning the energy all the way back into Mexico.  We saw this in earlier runs on other models - which ended up a southern miss. 

 

The other point on this one for me is that this isn't a H up north setting up and allowing the L to form and run into it.  It's a strong ULL forcing the H down and the L forming, and trying to run into it - resulting in the "slide" with snow mainly coming from over-running. 

 

I simply look at this as two opposing forces head butting versus one gently moving in and the other slamming into it.  Always a problem to determine where the line of snow actually sets up.

 

12Z NAM :  http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

 

If it were the former scenario (H up north, L forms and rides INTO it) then a different story.  But we have a slider.  Looking at current temps - you can see the airmass that will be pushed down.  That is COLD!  In this situation the COLD will win, not the warm.  That's just my take on it.

 

So it's about where things set up and how far the overrunning can invade to determine the snow-swath.

 

Right now - NAM paints a VA/Delmarva/Exterme SJ special.  Philly is out.  (why does this feel like deja vu?) - A SLIDER.

 

With this type of system - last minute changes can happen.  If the ULL in Canada shifts, weakens, and the H isn't as strong, then a north shift would occur.  *ugh*  invoking nowcast mode.

 

But for the next few hours - headed to the Flyboys game.  Time to open up a can of whoop-a$$ on those stinking tuxedo birds.....

 

Enjoy today - looks awesome outside!!  LET'S GO F-L-Y-E-R-S!!!!!

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toNY
toNY
3 years ago
TheyCallMeWoody
TheyCallMeWoody
Maybe in May we can get some snow when the freaking PV retreats a little.
3 years ago
Wales/Roxborough
Wales/Roxborough
If it ends up being suppressed then this will OFFICIALLY go down as the strangest winter of all , getting storms with no teleconnections in the ideal place, and not getting storms and suppression with mildly cold air in march, it makes absolutely no sense, I will not believe this until tomorrow nights runs. the models will re-adjust to the not so strong cold air in the middle of march, and the moisture will come right back up the coast, If this doesn't happen then you not hear from me till next winter
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Yep we are screwed. Spring is here just not a warm one for sure.
3 years ago
MacroburstMoses
MacroburstMoses
Not trying to model hug, but we are probably gonna get screwed with this one
3 years ago
MacroburstMoses
MacroburstMoses
gfs will be horrible, I know it
3 years ago
TheyCallMeWoody
TheyCallMeWoody
...And the nam joins the suppressed party.
3 years ago
TheyCallMeWoody
TheyCallMeWoody
You know whats gonna happen... We will all be wishing for a more northern solution and it'll end up being all rain haha
3 years ago
Terzsnowman57
Terzsnowman57
NWS Mt Holly has snow map out for 4-6" for SEPA, most of NJ and DE
18Z NAM looked good , over 1"QPF for Philly and close to 1" for NYC
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
18z NAM shows a foot plus for Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Allentown, Philly, Trenton, and NYC.

www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/…
3 years ago
TheyCallMeWoody
TheyCallMeWoody
My phone is about to die so if someone responds and i dont, sorry haha. My question is though, why are some models suppressing the storm and others aren't? For example, the nam just goes ham for us while the euro just goes blah. Although, i didnt take a close look but the nam may be going south over the past few runs. Which is a shame.
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
Thats true Jeffro, but this storm will be 2 weeks later in March and the warm air should be pushing more northward from the South, just my opinion.
3 years ago
jeffro
jeffro
The storm we were supposed to have about a week and half ago had this same thing happen. The high pushed down cold air that just dried up the moisture NW of Phila that was supposed to change over from rain to snow.
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
its possible Joe, but the NAM had the storm way North at 6z and still crushing us as of 12Z. Most of the models were south Initially then hitting us and now they are South again, but we are almost 60 hrs out so I would give it another 24 hrs to pull the trigger on whats gonna happen.
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
calm down guys, The models still don't know whats going on, we need at least until 12z tomorrow to have a better idea, I just cant picture a high crushing a storm in mid March.
3 years ago
FRIEZA2
FRIEZA2
This might be are last chance for some snow!
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@ThinkSummer - I'll update later after all 12z runs are in. NAM has a thin intense snowline right through Philly. GFS has a less intense and southern map with a DE special.

@59 - NAM says Boston yes - interior No. GFS says no to both.

Need to stay away from locking onto model runs and look at dynamics to determine which track is more plausible.

RAW Maps:
GFS: www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/…

NAM: www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/…
3 years ago
ThinkSummer
ThinkSummer
What's the latest on Mondays storm? Surprised to see little talk on here about it especially with the new site.

Some local mets saying a few models show its tracking south with little to no snow....... Other mets saying moderate accumulating snow?? Can't we ever get an accurate forecast in the Phila area before the storm instead of after the storm?
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Update: gefs shows a potential MECS with 1+QPF and euro ensembles show a BECS 3-6 inch throughout the area. Jma is the biggest hit 1.0-1.50qpf all snow from DC to NYC.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Jma12z is a huge hit MECS for everybody on this board. Gfs 12z is a decent 2-4 but had nothing last night so it's trending towards the cmc. Cmc had a historic run last night today was smaller but still spits out 6-12 from DC to NYC. Boston gets shafted. Providence gets in the action. Euro took a minor step still had a relatively sheared out system but went north. Nam 12z still not in range but looks great. SREF 13z plumes went way north looks great. Brings in 0.25-0.50 QPF by 82 hour. Even Navgem went north with the system. Although were not in the bullseye yet that may be a good thing cause I'm sure models will swing back and forth fr the next day or two. Still about 3.5 days away from the system but it's getting really close to MECS for all the cities that are covered on this forum.
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
Hopefully the 12Z EURO jumps on board. Then we should should have a good chance of seeing at least some snow come Sunday Night.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
12Z UKMET looks directionally supportive as well...
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
12Z CMC and GFS are looking similar now. CMC is still bringing more precip though.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@DDD - LOL!! yeah - I'll need to create another profile for that guy!
3 years ago
Dean D Davison
Dean D Davison
good blog freeze . almost time to transfer into your alter ego GOLFMIZER lol
3 years ago
Shugar54
Shugar54
For all the Mets out there that said the GFS was the right model...well it has taken a big shift north. It appears game on for some Snow!
3 years ago
TheyCallMeWoody
TheyCallMeWoody
Ok im a snow geek. If a potential is there, i want it. 12z GFS made a huge jump north.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
@Manayunkice dgex 18z looks identical to cmc 12z and so does jma. Armando although there's always something to worry as most models are terrible especially beyond 48 hours as we noticed, there's euro (trending better still gives us 2-4). Cmc snowstorm, jma snowstorm, dgex snowstorm and nam is also looking very amplified and takes the precip with the low and doesn't leave energy behind. So far we are looking good. Let's see what tonight's models show. I suspect the models trending towards a snowstorm for late weekend into early next week. Not fantasy land either! 4.5 days away
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
18z GFS is a no go and continues to suppress the storm, 18Z DGEX says bring the snow! 6 to 12"+ with temps in the teens and low 20's. We can only dream. I'll be busy tonight boys, but ill be posting again tomorrow morning.
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
18z NAM definitely looks like a storm is possible for the Mid-Atlantic. At hr 84 there is a Low developing and strengthening over Oklahoma and a Canadian High diving South and strengthening near the US-Canadian border. I'm curious to see what the 18z DGEX says and the 18z GFS, but more interested in tonights 0z runs.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Omg I know you probably don't care what the cmc12z shows it's actually been the best model this year and it shows a full blown snowstorm for us Sunday night into monday!
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
12z CMC, Shows a big hit for Sunday and Monday for E PA and NJ. It has shows a Double Barrel Low with precip coming in 2 waves. The first wave is Sunday Night the and the 2nd Wave is Monday Aftenoon.

mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/…
3 years ago
ballz97fm
ballz97fm
Removed
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
Yea Armando, the 12z CMC would be a nice 4-8" event for most of the region. It seems almost idealistic for a mid to late March snowstorm IMO. Once this storm clears and the next storm settles North over Canada it will be interesting to see if that storm does indeed form at the edge of the trailing cold front over the South.
3 years ago
Flyersguy8
Flyersguy8
Hey armando. New guy. Names mike and really enjoy reading your insoght on events
3 years ago
TheyCallMeWoody
TheyCallMeWoody
Hello everyone...

Well, all I can say is... I just went outside in my shorts. I'm sorry but, I really don't want a snowstorm anymore.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
It looks like next week could get very interesting.
3 years ago
manayunkice
manayunkice
Looks like the 12Z NAM has shifted the storm a little south, Will the 18Z and 0Z NAM continue the trend? Possible backend snow if the storm continues to trend south
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
I'm getting more focused on the warm up and any storm that come through with enough wind to cause trees to topple as the ground is super saturated and now thawing.

3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@jogand - no "good" changes except it looks like the track has shifted a bit more NW (typical trend this winter) so even a more inland track as it moves through. maybe some snow showers on the back end but nothing to write home about...

Next week has some interest - but it's such a wild pattern right now we have to see how this system moves through and then things set up for next week.
3 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Snowstorm......this is a FAR FAR north and west event on the 12th/13th. I actually think winter is over after this rain to snow(no accum) this week followed by a COLD shot......then it warms up. I would put 2% chance at best fro anything next week.

Consider this winter a wrap. Now its time to give our cars a break from the salt however.....the potholes are now going to start to get so bad because of the expanding from the temps going up after being in a deep freeze for 3 months.
3 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
But overall.....SPRING IS HERE once this cold shot comes in on Thursday....then comes the warmer weather.

I need no swan song. Unless its a black swan that looks like Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis

Bring me my golf weather ASAP!!!!

I hope everyone is loving the new site better?? So much cool stuff is going to be happening on here and when November rolls around this year, it's going to be awesome. Had a great lunch with Rob and Brian and I must say we are going to make this the best site out there. So much is in the works and I wish all of you could see the "Analytics" side of the site and how many people come here for weather. Its awesome and we are #1.

We are entrenched in this region so well that we are really crushing everyone. As we spread out to the rest of the country, those regions are going to view our region so they can see how an amazing community has been built and where the general public chooses to get their weather.....FROM ALL OF US ON HERE!!!!

Great times ahead and truly an awesome winter. I have a very good feeling we will see an increase in traffic on here even during the warmer months.
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
Hey oak, I am not trying to be impatient but are you liking the March 17-18th period for a snowstorm, or do you think winter is basically over?
3 years ago
oakland2323
oakland2323
Only quiet since we are all rejoining.
3 years ago
Ksiegel35
Ksiegel35
It's amazing how quiet it has gotten in here. Looks like the 17th is going to be rain as well guess winter is over.
3 years ago
jogand
jogand
Freeze, any changes or developments?
3 years ago
dehaven
dehaven
Probably just a snow at elevation, Poconos & interior New England, maybe extreme NW Jersey. Have to believe the chances for any 6 plus inch snow from Burlington & Ocean counties on south in Jersey is over. Having said that it would not surprise me if we have a sloppy coating to an inch or two at the end of March first few days of April. One of those classic white coatings on top of the yellow forsythia blossoms. March, get ready to dress for all four seasons in one day.
3 years ago
mace2
mace2
ahhh, my favorite. someone who doesn't like snow told to move to Florida. maybe the snow weenies ought to move to Maine. My goodness, it can snow in Mid-March, but the odds are not that great.
3 years ago
whetherman
whetherman
Thanks Wink, a.k.a. Snow Scrooge. Sounds like maybe a move to Florida would suit you.
3 years ago
WinkMartindale
WinkMartindale
Very glad to see this is the likely outcome. This winter has been hellacious--it's more than time to move on to spring.
3 years ago
JROLLIN22
JROLLIN22
The potential for March 17-18th storm is really looking nice right now...but that's always subject to change. Right now looks like we have a good shot of cold air coming in just in time for a good amount of snow...something to keep an eye on through the week.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
If the solution/track holds from the 00Zs - slim to none.
3 years ago
jogand
jogand
At this point what are the chances Philly, del county see snow?
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
gfs 18z looked great still think the actual outcome will be a stronger and colder solution resulting a slower system with much more accumulations.
3 years ago
SoulKing1313
SoulKing1313
Sigh. The site looks great. I wasn't on for a bit had to make a new account. Since my email was deleted. So now its IceAgeComing2. I think I purposely stayed off because I want to not track the storm so far out especially in March. Last storm was impossible to predict. My emotions can't handle it. lol

Ohh dammit. Thought that was my username not my display name. How do I change that.? /sigh
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@kNaylz - thanks again - I'll try.

@snowstorm101 - really too early to tell. The one thing I like are the models having it as a stronger system on each run. 18Z GFS had it stronger and slower. For the same location 18Z was stronger at 992mb, where 12Z had it at 996mb and six hours faster.

00Zs are up next - ah - in about 4 hours....
3 years ago
snowstorm101
snowstorm101
hey freeze, I was just wondering if NW NJ is going to have a good shot at a 4+ snowstorm. What are your thoughts?
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@knaylz. Thanks! Any idea about the graphics?
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Wow - just spent 20 minutes editing the blog and I timed out, so all work lost. Boo. I'll tray again later.

Chances are low at this moment for 4+ in Philly.
3 years ago
weather101
weather101
What are the chances of 4+ Inch of snow in Philly at this point? I know it will be warm in the days leading up to this storm but i think we could see something on the back end of this storm. What do you guys think?
3 years ago
Flyersguy8
Flyersguy8
Hey toNY. New guy here, long time follower. How did you think the gfs looked today?
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
I95 and west
3 years ago
LtSnow
LtSnow
toNY How far south do you see the snow coming? I still think north of I80 is the closest it gets to PHL.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
The euro phases the wave that kicks off from Idaho area with the wave coming off the Gulf of Mexico as it cools us down enough to snow. The 850's will get 32 or lower and surfaces will be around 37 or so. As the moisture begins it will cool the surface to 32 or lower. The phasing totally happens when it reaches our area. I said this last night and I'll say it again it could snow 4 inches of snow an hour at times if the dynamics really kick in like I think will.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
BTW why do thunderstorms do during the summer? They create electricity from the the moisture source as it's moving at high speeds , and it expands. Water and electricity are unstable so you get a cooling event. This is why each time there's a strong thunderstorm, it cools the atmosphere and surface. Watch this storm be a surprise. But it will only show up on the models when it reads all factors.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
We are in a fragile situation if we want snow because the stronger March sun gives the atmosphere enough warming that could warm the temperatures for it change rain. I believe we could get 16 inches of this storm if we get a phase. The euro slowly is giving that idea up, but If I was a betting man I would say the phase happens as this storm should get very dynamic with the strong march sun and cold temperatures. This is why you could get some serious thundersnow in the beginning of this type of storm and during the height of the storm. Imagine thundersnow and windy. This is the type of storm that amplifies as it slowly pushes the high pressure. And as it's pushing the high it's going to collect moisture off the Atlantic and snow cover that's melting out there and there's plenty of it. Also the weather could get so volatile that another wave joins forces with the big low. After all they both spin the same wheel while the high is a completely spins completely the opposite. It's like a cars wheel spinning on track. As the car drives through a puddle of water it splashes everywhere, if your going at let's say hurricane force winds you will pick up that moisture and get up to atmosphere and fall as snow. It will be plenty cold as the cold air is going to flood in as the high starts getting towed due ENE. I'm liking this potential storm.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
I also like what cmc shows even though it doesn't snow much it's a good track for mostly snow. It's looking good! I think the euro should correct itself tomorrow with a more amped solution, but dynamic cooling will play effect going to a colder solution and staying cold (snow).
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
The euro 00z run was not bad but looked a little warmer and weaker, less phasing. I don't think this low is going to move that fast so it's precipitation shield will grow as it moves east north east (ENE).
3 years ago
WildWeather
WildWeather
The Storm will be back this always happens... ... honestly not taking any model solution seriously until Monday at 12z at this point.... these March storms have a way of sneaking up on you especially after a day in the lower to middle 60's that we may see on Tuesday!
3 years ago
TheyCallMeWoody
TheyCallMeWoody
I'll die (of laughter) if the PV suppressed this storm. Haha
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
GFS 00z totally losses the storm. Toss the run
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
@ksiegel35- that really depends on the track of that low. If it tracks south of us it might still hit 41 but as the heavier precipitation starts falling, it will dynamically cool the atmosphere and surface to change any rain or drizzle to heavy snowfall crashing temperatures at 32 or lower. Check by Monday afternoon we should have a better idea where that low tracks. At this point it's nearly impossible to know. My guess is it won't hit 41.
3 years ago
Ksiegel35
Ksiegel35
Hey tony looking at weather sources we have a high of 41 Wednesday you think temps will come down enough to make this a snow event
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Still very far from the actual event. I won't really be committed till Sunday night or even Monday afternoon possibly. But it's looking good right now.
3 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
Just having the possibility of this happening is amazing in itself, this a certainly a rare event.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Greg nice to meet you. Welcome I'm toNY. Or tony lol. Anyway, look at the series of waves that should give us a triple phase low pressure just southeast of us by Wednesday afternoon. Pretty cool to look at...

climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/hemi/…
3 years ago
Shugar54
Shugar54
Philly gonna get hammered! Bernie Rayno said Philly is out of the heavy snow. Philly is to far south and he doesn't believe the storm will dig that far south. Thank-you Bernie Lol
3 years ago
Phillyfan4ever
Phillyfan4ever
Finally got re-registered. Ended up having to create a 2nd account. Otherwise this is the best the site has run in a long time around here.
3 years ago
NYY_516
NYY_516
Hey guys, long time lurker, just wanted to introduce myself, I'm greg from Long Island(20 miles east of NYC) and like all of you , I have a passion for weather!
3 years ago
whetherman
whetherman
WOW! The site looks GREAT, and just in time to coincide with a potential winter storm. Will be logged in a lot eagerly awaiting blogs from you knowledgeable experts here (you know who you are, so don't be shy). And toNY, I'm with you.....hoping for a major snow storm to close out the winter.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Well in other news off topic I got a lousy 3% raise today. Omg I'm so pissed! I need another job!
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
Nice run from the gfs 18z more dynamic is the key. We need a dynamic ideal track system and I don't see why we can't get a nice 6-12 inch snow easily!
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@matty - They haven't been too far apart on this - basically showing typical bias on way or the other - and it's the 18Z - and it's Friday - so a step in the right direction. I really like the idea of that 50/50 low getting set right to slow things down.
3 years ago
matty1075
matty1075
looks like 18z GFS has caved towards the Euro....
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
NWS Mt Holly at 4pm:

THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD CONSENSUS FROM THE MID-RANGE MODEL PACKAGE
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY, AND THEN WE START TO SEE THE GFS/GGEM/EC PART
WAYS WITH THE SPEED AND DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH. TO PUT IT SIMPLY,
WE ARE WILL BE IN MID-MARCH WITH SPLIT FLOW STILL ALOFT AND WE NEED
A DEEP THERMAL TROUGH TO CHANGE THAT WITH PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. WE THEN NEED TO ROBUST WAVE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH TO DRAG IN ENOUGH
COLD AIR AND THEN SLING THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OVERHEAD. MUCH
LIKE THE LAST EVENT, MARCH 2-3, THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS THAT
NEED TO FALL IN-LINE FOR MORE SNOW.

WHAT DOES HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE OCCURRENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING BY/THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING SAID WENT WITH A WPC APPROACH
FOR POPS AND RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR THE TIME BEING.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
New site and a new blizzard since we technically didn't really have a blizzard this year. It would end this winter with a bang.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
12z euro (ecmwf) ensembles are more south and give us much more snow and a lot less rain. I'd rather trust the ensembles this far out than the OP. Let's go euro even though your the outliner somewhat, I want you to verify and give us a HECS!
3 years ago
Snowbi-wan-kanobi
Snowbi-wan-kanobi
Rob, great job on the new site! Makes all the problems this season a distant memory
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
I can't get over the new site, it runs better than ever.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
So with this next storm I'd rather see a rainstorm than just a few inch snow. Of course I want a full blown blizzard my point is id like to see a dynamic system not a suppressed system that gives us light QPF. Please Mother Nature give us a triple phaser that produces massive amounts of snow even for the coast and than we'll gladly accept spring, lol.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@robweather - couldn't agree more. If this were Jan or Feb we'd be freaking out right now!!
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
Upper levels need to be looked at closer - just haven't has time yet. And also other factors like a NAO that looks more favorable with potential "slowing" in place with a 50/50 type Low. (shown on both GFS and EURO from 12Z troday - pics above)

So many things to look at over the next couple of days.
3 years ago
robweather
robweather
It's worth watching for sure. The models will adjust but this has been sitting out there for a few days. It all has to go just right once you get into Mid March. The snowstorms are rare but they can happen so YES we have yet another storm to watch.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
I'd say there is a 70 % chance of at least some snow. 25% of a HECS and 5 % of all rain. This type of storm makes it's own cold air motto mention there will be a strong high pressure dragging clockwise cold air right onto us as the precipitation starts.
3 years ago
toNY
toNY
12z euro run was good but if it verified just about 75-100 miles east we'd get a historic snowstorm here from DC to Boston. Possibly 12-24+ inches of snow. If it took the ideal track than the coastal cities would get the heaviest snow and right not I'm leaning towards that at least we could get a 6+ snowstorm.
3 years ago
GhostStorm
GhostStorm
Looking more and more like you are going to need to be north of the Mason Dixon line for any acc. snows. Id say the safest place is the mountains of Pa into New England. Most areas EPA south have seen most of their snow this year, which isnt bad as most places are around 70"
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
From the HPC @ 11am today:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1054 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

VALID 12Z MON MAR 10 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 14 2014

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH AN
AMPLIFICATION SUPERIMPOSED BY DAYS 6 AND 7. THE FAMILIAR WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION APPEARS TO BE EMERGING BEHIND
THE LATEST WASH OF ZONAL FLOW, WITH HEIGHTS RISING OVER ALASKA AND
FALLING ASTRIDE THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE SPLIT AND
AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW ARE WREAKING HAVOC IN THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE
VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
THEMSELVES--GEFS, ECENS, CMCE--POINT TO ENOUGH OF A STABLE SIGNAL
TO WARRANT RELIANCE UPON THEIR COMPOSITE MASS FIELDS. THE BIGGEST
SYNOPTIC THREAT IS THE MIXED WAVE COALESCING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DAY 5. HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION ARE LIKELY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE ON THE
NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DEFINE WHO GETS
WHAT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DISPARATE STREAMS COMPRISING THE
CYCLONE.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
The snow from the 12Z Euro run looks to be I276 and north. Though I don't have great access to the Euro - so always defer to those that do for specifics.
3 years ago
FreezeMizer
FreezeMizer
@Jo - we're a long way out in terms of how this winter has played out- so there are multiple scenarios still to be sorted. No doubt a series of energy will be moving through and merging in one way or another. I'm still a bit conservative this far out. And it will also depend on where you're located. N&W versus Philly, I95 corridor, NYC, etc...

This could have multiple parts - e.g. starts as rain, stays as rain, changes to snow, dumps.

Given how this winter has gone. For a significant winter storm I'm currently leaning low to moderate chance (30-50%) right now. Which I guess for March isn't that bad. We need to ride patiently through Sunday.

3 years ago
Shugar54
Shugar54
The odds are like 70% that there will be a storm but the details are still not clear. Most likely we'll have rain turning to heavy snow.
3 years ago
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