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Mid March Madness of Snow? Can it happen?

Discussion started by robweather 4 years ago

Winter is almost over but as we all know it's a winter that seems to go on forever and ever.  We had a huge storm back in 1993 that changed model weather forecasting in many ways via the NGM now the GFS. Back in 1993 I was working in Syracuse NY for NBC and we got dumped with over 50' of snow. The NGM (Nested Grid Model) nailed this mega storm 5 days out and it changed computer model forecasting forever. Today we know that same model as the GFS (Global Forecast System).

 

So can this model and the trusty EURO model make a call like it did back in 1993? The storm on the models right now is not as big as that storm but it does have potential.  Lets check out where we are as of Friday afternoon. Oh BTW the storm would be Tuesday night to Thursday at this point.

 

EURO EURO ON THE WALL CAN YOU BRING SOME BIG SNOW AT ALL?

 

Screen Shot 2014-03-07 at 3.30.35 PM

Screen Shot 2014-03-07 at 3.30.54 PM

 

After looking over the EURO today I do see the potential but my biggest concern is the temps and at which level they tap the Atlantic and surface? The Euro raw numbers below show a concern for the 540 line and temps at 5000 feet and the surface.

Screen Shot 2014-03-07 at 3.48.13 PM

 The chance of snow for Philly would come Thursday 18z(1pm) to Thursday 10pm at this point. The raw numbers from above show a 540 thickness line of 547-550 for Wednesday with surface and aloft temps too warm for snow. Could this shoft? Yes it can the main idea is we have a storm to watch not so much the exact track. The snow zone would be 1-3" at this point on the back end of the storm as it moves away.

 

The GFS is a little colder and not as much moisture but has the same idea for mid next week. We would see 1-3" of snow possible from this system off the latest GFS run. We'll be updating again tonight and we'll be adding many new spring blogs as far as temps, rainfall and the planting season ahead.  

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SJDen
SJDen
Only 2.7 inches more to get to #2 on the Philly's Snowiest Winters list.
4 years ago
robweather
robweather
Thanks. We'll be adding many more features soon
4 years ago
toNY
toNY
Hey Rob nice site man congratulations. Nice blog also still kinda early but I'm very excited for this upcoming potetial snowstorm.
4 years ago
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